Pelosi: Unemployment would be 15% if not for us.

Townhall.com ^ | November 7, 2011 | Bob Beauprez

[Kaslin]

Nancy Pelosi stepped in front of the cameras to defend Barack Obama and the Democrats' record on job creation and the economy recently.  The former Speaker of the House said the President had been "a job creator from day one."  As if that statement alone didn't sufficiently prove her detachment from reality, she added that "if President Obama and House Congressional Democrats had not acted, we would be at 15 percent unemployment."  (video here)

Nancy should have left the numbers to somebody who actually understands them, because a little analysis of the real tragic situation in the workforce reveals that the total number of unemployed in America is much closer to 15 percent than the former Speaker apparently realizes, and there is plenty more bad news, too.

It is true that according to the Labor Department's October 2011 report, 13.9 million Americans are unemployed by definition.  However, that definition and calculation does not include the 6.57 million who have given up even trying to find a job, and are not considered as part of the total labor force.  When both groups are included, a more accurate unemployment rate of about 13 percent results.

As the following chart demonstrates, the size of the working age population has increased almost 6.5 million since Obama took office.  However, the total labor force has remained essentially unchanged.   

In addition, for all the talk of jobs saved-or-created by Obama and the Democrats, the numbers tell a different story; nearly 2 million fewer people even have a job than when the President took office, and again, the available workforce is larger by 6.5 million.

A critical ratio in the above numbers is what the Labor Department calls the Participation Rate; the number of people employed or looking for work out of the total age-eligible population.  Throughout the last decade, the Labor Department's statistics indicate that ratio held near or above 66%.  The Participation Rate was 65.8% when Obama took office with the effects of the recession already being felt.  The stark reality of this ratio means that about 4 million Americans who would normally be bringing home a pay check and adding to the total productivity of the nation are on the sidelines.

A decline during a recession is expected, but the real fault with Obama and the Democrats lies in the inability to restore economic confidence such that jobs are once again available and Americans re-enter the work force.  Not since the recession of the early 1980s when America was recovering from the Carter Administration's inept policies has the Participation Rate been so low. 

Perhaps the most ignored statistical tragedy of Obama's failed economic policies is found in the Labor Department's tracking of people working "part time for economic reasons."  Included in this category are people who want full-time jobs, but either have been cut back on hours or can't find full-time employment.  These are the millions of Americans bringing home a piece of a paycheck instead of all that they'd like to provide for their family. 

Again, it is totally normal that this number would increase at the start of a recession.  However, as the following BLS chart shows, during the last decade slightly more than 4 million Americans were typically in this part-time employed category.  That number more than doubled as the recession hit in 2008, but it has remained stuck at around 9 million for three years with recent months actually indicating an increasing trend yet again.

Number part time employed for economic reasons

Obama and Pelosi were the ones who promised upon passage of their ill-conceived $800 billion economic Stimulus in January 2009 that unemployment would stay below 8 percent.  However, the unemployment rate blew past that self-imposed threshold the very next month and has never been close to that level since.  Now, we are told to forget those earlier promises and projections and find satisfaction in their claim that if not for them, it might have been even worse.  

Clearly, the economic policies that Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi promised would pull America out of recession haven't worked, and all they have to offer is more government, more spending, and an insulting salvo that "it could have been worse" if not for them. 

We're reminded of 1980 when another Democrat administration proved completely inept in dealing with a struggling economy and had lost all credibility with the voters.  The Republican candidate for President explained that, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.  A depression is when you lose yours.  And, a recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his."   Ronald Reagan won that election and put in place policies that led to three decades of tremendous job creation and economic growth.  Most importantly Reagan sparked a renewed sense of optimism and confidence in American Exceptionalism.  The best cure for our struggling economy is not more-of-the-same from Obama; it is Election Day 2012.

[faucetman]

I know that unemployment is at 9% because of you.

[South40]

Note to Nancy Pelooser — Unemployment is above 9% BECAUSE of you!

[Brilliant]

Its the Herbert Hoover argument. Things would’ve been worse but for me.

[nikos1121]

I’d be a millionaire right now if I wasn’t so lazy...and a dumb sh*t...

[runninglips]

What she says is true, and could be defended in court. Of course what she is talking about is the measurables, which without 0 and his lackeys would read differently. Probably closer to 18% unemployment. Thanks Pelosi, you have put fresh lipstick on the pig, and it looks so much better....oink oink.

[red-dawg]

She can't help it, she wasn't born on this planet.

[fhayek]

I Bush had said “Without me and my war with Iraq, Saddam Hussein would have started WWIII and we would all be speaking Arabic by now” - how far would he have gotten?

[sickoflibs]

Pelosi laugh ping!

The one thing that frustrates me about Republicans is that Obama always lines up those experts that agree with him for his political campaign: first the economic experts agreed that the stimulus would work, then the CBO concluded that the stimulus created or saved millions of jobs (at $300 or $500K per job) then the CBO numbers on the Obama-care deficit reduction.

Now Obama is claiming his new 'jobs package' has been assessed by more economic experts to create a huge and fast jobs bang. Congressional Republicans are still responding by repeating the same talking points that they been using for almost a year : "America has a spending problem.... " and "Millionares are the main job creators.." . Also cutting taxes and regulations cannot produce the fast temporary sugar rush that throwing money at voters can.
Why can't Republicans dig up their own experts and CBO scores to show why Obama's proposal is bad?? What is the effect of the new stimulus after the election in 2013? They need to point out why this is just a short term election plan that leaves us worse off after the election.

[NuclearDruid]

“We got it up to 25%

arent we great ???”

---

Exactly my point - you’re just faster on the rebound.

see : http://www.shadowstats.com/

[Eagle of Liberty]

DONE hearing "Bush was at the helm at the beginning of the downturn" without the respondent saying, "The downturn did not start until DEMOCRATS controlled the entire Congress."

Reform of Freddie and Fannie - desired by Bush but not acted upon in Congress

Reform of SS - desired by Bush but not acted upon in Congress

Reform of Tax system - desired by Bush but not acted upon in Congress

Unemployment rate - see graph



Conclusion: Pelosi REALLY needs to shut up when it comes to this nation's economy or unemployment rate. The announcer of The Most Ethical Congress Eva needs to be asked on a daily basis what the unemployment rate was when her term as Speaker began and what it was two years later.....and BTW, Obama was IN CONGRESS while our downturn started, so he CAN be directly linked to ALL harm that has been done to our economy since 2007!!!

[JEC]

Nancy, you asshole, unemployment is over 16%. After 3-1/2 of being unemployed I’m tired of you and that pOs in the whitehouse telling us that it is going to get better. The only way that it will get better is for the two of you to leave. Let’s face it, you are a multi-millionair who really could not give a crap about people like myself. There should be a term limit on all who serve in the Congress or Senate. Let’s say no more than 8 years.

[Venturer]

The only people who actually listen to Nancy Pelosi are those who believe every word she says.

You CAN fool some of the people all of the time and those people vote Democrat.

[Pollster1]

Pelosi is the one who triggered this recession. Then Obama/Reid/Pelosi forced the "Stimulus" through because of their own dire predictions on what would have happened without their bill:

We know what would have happened without stimulus - they predicted it with reasonable confidence based on a reliable economic model. We know what would have happened without Pelosi's 2007-2009 Congress, we were on that path until her first massively wasteful budget (okay, massive by pre-Obama standards if trivial compared with today's socialist dictator wannabe). Surely they don't believe anyone productive will fall for their latest lie.

[theBuckwheat]

The post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this therefore because of this) fallacy is based upon the mistaken notion that simply because one thing happens after another, the first event was a cause of the second event. Post hoc reasoning is the basis for many superstitions and erroneous beliefs.

from:
http://www.skepdic.com/posthoc.html

(Or in other words, if I had not bought that brand new set of golf clubs, my score would have been even worse!)

[Tennessee Nana]

Iz gud

:)

[killermosquito]

Demonrats are always saying that the country was shedding over 700k jobs per week at the end of the Bush Presidency. Why isn’t someone making the point that business saw the writing on the wall and decided that if zero was going to be elected they needed to start shedding the jobs.

[Rummyfan]

The Bug-Eyed One speaks! True unemployment is probably 15% anyway, so who is she kidding?

[Rummyfan]

The Bug-Eyed One speaks! True unemployment is probably 15% anyway, so who is she kidding?

[Calvin Locke]

She's not kidding.

If she, BHO, & Reid didn't corrupt gub'mint statistics, they very well
could be reporting 15%, if not higher.

[QT3.14]

Pelosi is one of the reasons for my tagline.