Posted on 10/03/2011 2:33:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
Is Herman Cain a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination? It's a question no one in the pundit world was asking until the past week.
Cain has never held public office. When he ran for the Senate in Georgia in 2004, he lost the primary by a 52 percent to 26 percent margin.
He has zero experience in foreign or defense policy, where presidents have the most leeway to set policy. When questioned about the Middle East earlier this year, he clearly had no idea what the "right of return" is.
His solid performance in the Fox News/Google debate Sept. 22 didn't get pundits to take his chances seriously.
Neither did his 37 percent to 15 percent victory over Rick Perry in the Florida straw poll on Sept. 24. That was taken as a response to Perry's weak debate performance and a tribute to Cain for showing up and speaking before the 2,657 people who voted.
But Republicans around the nation seem to have responded the same way. The Fox News poll conducted Sept. 25 to 27 showed Cain with 17 percent of the vote -- a statistically significant jump from the 5 percent he had been averaging in polls taken in previous weeks.
And a SurveyUSA poll of Florida Republicans conducted Sept. 24 to 27 showed Cain trailing Mitt Romney by only 27 percent to 25 percent -- a statistical tie. That's very different from the Florida polls conducted by Public Policy Polling Sept. 22 to 25 and Quinnipiac Sept. 14 to 19, both of which showed Cain with 7 percent.
We will see whether other national or state polls show Cain with a similar surge. If so, then there's a real possibility that Cain could win enough primaries and caucuses to be a real contender.
That possibility is already being taken seriously by The Wall Street Journal's Daniel Henninger. Henninger argued in a Sept. 29 column that Cain's success in business -- engineering turnarounds in Burger King's Philadelphia stores and Godfather's Pizza nationally -- made him a plausible candidate.
"Unlike the incumbent," Henninger wrote, "Herman Cain has at least twice identified the causes of a large failing enterprise, designed goals, achieved them and by all accounts inspired the people he was supposed to lead."
Cain's business success, his "9-9-9" tax plan, his generally conservative stands on issues, the YouTube clip showing him debating Bill Clinton on health care in 1994 -- all of these help account for his apparent surge in the polls.
But I suspect there are a couple of other factors. One is likeability. Romney's attempts at ingratiation are awkward, and Perry's charm is lost on most non-Texans. But Cain is, as the Atlantic's liberal analyst Chris Good concedes, "undeniably likeable."
Another thing going for him is race. White conservatives like to hear black candidates who articulate their views and will vote for them: Check out Rep. Tim Scott of Charleston, S.C.
In this, white conservatives resemble white liberals, who liked hearing Barack Obama articulate their views and were ready to vote for him, too. This is what Joe Biden was getting at with his awkward 2007 comment that Obama was a "clean" black candidate.
White moderates are ready to support black candidates, too, as Obama showed in the 2008 general election.
Cain claims that he could get one-third of the black vote in a general election. There's no way to rigorously test that.
But it finds some support in Scott Rasmussen's polls, which have been regularly pitting 10 current or possible candidates against Obama. Rasmussen finds Romney ahead by 2 percent and Chris Christie trailing by 1 percent. The other candidate closest to Obama, trailing by 5 percent, is Cain.
Moreover, Cain holds Obama to the lowest share of the vote, 39 percent, of any of the 10 Republicans. That may be because some black voters desert Obama when Cain is the opponent.
Further support can be found in the Low Country of South Carolina, where Scott won with 65 percent of the vote in 2010 in a district where John McCain won just 56 percent and where 20 percent of the population is black. No other Republican freshmen in the Old South ran so far ahead of McCain.
All this speculation may be getting far ahead of the facts. Cain still has significant liabilities as a candidate and could make a disqualifying mistake any time. But he's beginning to look like a contender.
A month ago the same question was being asked about Bachmann.
I will comment once about Herman Cain. There’s just something about him I just don’t like or makes me a bit uneasy. He exudes “Suit” or “Company Man” and that false positivity of a motivational speaker.
I come from the trenches. Life isn’t always good and you don’t always overcome our personal struggles. I don’t want someone who’s always in “rosy picture” mode. Life isn’t about easy answers it’s about making the tough choices.
That said, he or any other of the other crop of current candidates, save Paul or Huntsman, or consideration candidates, Palin or Christie would have my vote in a heartbeat over the current occupant of the White House.
Thank you.
I posted this on another thread; fits here too:
I believe the reason that Cain lit into this rock issue and implied that Perry was therefore potentially racist (guilt by association) because he hunted on a leased property that had the offending rock for some years (even though Perrys father had painted it over), was to try to get back in the good graces of his fellow black brethren whom he had dished just a couple of days before by saying they were brainwashed. What better way to deflect criticism of himself for using that term against his black brothers than to attack a whitey (Perry) for racism.
Not a good look here for Cain. Big mistake, and I dont even like Perry as a candidate, but this was a below the belt attack on Perry, and Cain shouldnt have taken the media bait and then used it as a vehicle to deflect the criticism that has been aimed at himself over his brainwashed remark against his fellow blacks. Bad form.
One vote in the primary, just like you. Now how much smarter does that make you than me? I also give contributions to candidates with whom I agree but I also know they have the instantaneous ability to disappoint me too. I will not let my "skin in the game" cloud that reality.
I will be doing what everyone who has a vote should be doing. Vetting until the last hour before entering the voting booth. As one who has been a part of two professional racing championship teams, it is usually not who turns the fastest lap of the race who wins. Just as it is not usually the one in the lead at the halfway mark as well.
They don't call it a political race for no good reason, but what came first, the chicken or the egg? It doesn't matter because it is still a race and it is not over until the checkers come out.
I agree with everything you said. My point was more about Barone than Cain.
But don't you think a job of a President is a lot about getting the right people in the right jobs? -- as a CEO does. He can't know everything about everything.
I agree that he's had zero experience in governance, however he has managed large enterprises, which I dare say is better than Barry's experience just being a senator (imho a governor has more experience than a senator, maybe even a mayor of a large city has more experience)
I also agree with your final statement about a more legitimate, viable option, but with the exception of Perry and Palin, I can't see any. I used to like Bachman, but think now that she has the negative points of both Perry and Cain and none of their plus points. She'd be great in administration but not as the President. Santorum maybe in 2016 or 2020 but he's still fresh. Romney and Paul I dismiss utterly.
Cain represents “We The People” and carries that mantle against the political/media elite. The question is who will win and who should win? I would think the We The People should win rather than the establishment. Of course the most obvious and effective “We The People” candidate would be Sarah Palin if she jumps in which I think she will. I am not willing to accept less conservative establishment candidates that will not make the changes necessary. I would be happy to vote for Cain if he is the nominee or of course Sarah Palin because both of them will make the changes necessary to restore our nation and change the direction we are heading.
He was until he allowed the media to bait him into playing the race card. He blew it, and that is a shame.
Wrong. Either you are waiting for Palin so you can send support, or you have decided to let the MSM select for you.
I don’t think Perry is a viable option: he peaked somewhere around his second debate.
Sure, hiring the right people is important, but Cain has zero experience in hiring people for political positions, and it’s a poor excuse for a prospective president not knowing anything about the issues he’s responsible for himself.
If we’re using Barry as a yardstick for our nominee, we’re in real trouble. And, IMO, if Palin doesn’t get in and run a good campaign, we’re in real trouble anyway. I’d almost be ready to give Santorum and Gingrich a second look if that happened, since IMO we’ve already given Romney, Bachmann, Perry and Cain a look—and found them all lacking.
I was a big Cain supporter until today . F ‘em all . The fix is in for Romney to fall to Obama . Two party one card monte .
Cain would be an asset not a liability for the right nominee, even a poor one with Cain alongside can benefit.
So assuming someone else gets the nomination I would wish Cain to be accepted by the people for his trueness from the heart.
Same way I often hire my employees, the resume can get them the job but its the sincerity that guarantees they get my paycheck.
He may have never managed a lemonade stand, but he was a community organizer which means he knows how to use a phone. PLUS he knows how to read. You ever see him give a speech? He uses a teleprompter which means he knows how to read. Phone skills + read skills = Qualified for President.
I think you are correct sir.
Cain a contender?
Yes, that’s why I sent him $100.00 four months ago
Check the polls: Bachmann was running near 20%, and is now fighting for the low single digits. That means she’s been considered by primary voters and passed over.
Blame Palin and Pawlenty if you suspect a conspiracy. Pawlenty launched a suicide attack on Bachmann, and Palin’s constant flirtation with running has sucked the oxygen out of the room, and made Bachmann look like a pale reflection of Bachmann.
Anyone watching Hank Williams Jr., on F&F rambling and barely coherent?.
Shame he’s slurring his words - because he is now a strong CAin supporter - (seems he had been supporting Palin).
He also wants to ‘kick the bums out’ of Congress.
I am right now, he was kinda rambling a bit, he is a Palin supporter and doesn’t want to really tell Fox about it, smart move, I would just stay quiet as well.
keep the cards close to the chest.
Not if he ever pulls the race card again.
Cain would be an asset not a liability for the right nominee, even a poor one with Cain alongside can benefit.
I think he would be an asset as the candidate and would beat Obama like a drum like most of the candidates that could be nominated. I do prefer Sarah if she runs and Cain would be a fine VP in that scenario. Obama has no chance to win so we are fighting for who is going to select our next President. I am rooting for “We The People” not the establishment candidates. Whoever wins will annihilates Obama.
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