Posted on 09/29/2011 4:34:38 AM PDT by RonDog
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Governor Palin is Still Alley Cat Smart
Posted on September 28 2011 - 8:23 PM - Posted by: SubmissionsGuest Submission by John Smith
And therefore those skilled in war bring the enemy to the field of battle and are not brought there by him- Sun TzuEveryone is getting all wee-weed up lately about Sarah Palins supposed indecision about a run for President, especially after her interview last night with Greta. Some here are nearly suicidal. Others are begging for people to have faith and keep their powder dry. For my part, Ill just offer a simple statement: Sarah Palin has already decided to run for President.
Suppose that you, like me, believe that she believes what she says. Phrases like Id rather sleep well than eat well and a ship in harbor is safe, but thats not why the ship is built arent empty slogans. Theyre words that capture the essence of a life lived so far. In this world, Sarah remains UNDEFEATED if she tries but fails to win. She only is defeated if she fails to try for fear of failure. Simply put, for someone like me, Sarah running makes perfect sense. Sarah not running would be tantamount to her saying all those things Ive said and done . . . never mind, THEY were right about me. Could you see her doing that? Could you see yourself basically refudiating so much of what is exemplary and good about your life so far.
Now, suppose that you are like Joe McGinniss. You believe that Sarah Palin is evil and manipulative. She only cares about the money. She only cares about her brand. Shes using her supporters, especially those O4P folks who have put their lives on hold chasing a false dream. When the rubber meets the road, shell pass. That sounds really convincing sometimes, especially if you say it enough and even more especially if you say it after an interview like Sarah had with Greta. Theres just one tiny flaw with the theory: If you believe all of that, then it makes more sense for Sarah to run. If shes all about the money, then alienating an employer who pays her a million dollars a year makes no sense. If shes all about the brand, then shell keep more of her followers by running than by not running.
In other words, in all of this talk about whether Palin will run or not, one question is NEVER asked: Does Palin have more to gain (or lose) by running or by not running? The reason that question is never asked is because, no matter your frame of reference when it comes to analyzing Sarah Palin, the conclusion would be the same: Shes running. Shes always been running. She has more to lose by NOT running. And, she is playing this to be or not to be game for a political reason that I will articulate presently:
Everyone knows that if (when) Palin runs, she will run a grassroots campaign. She will rely on deep enthusiasm among an often underestimated group of supporters and a lot of small donations to drive her campaign. Win the nomination, and the deeper pockets will come along for the ride. That pretty much was her strategy in Alaska in her run for governor in 2006. But, the beginning is the tricky part. Like 2006, she has to strike hard and fast this time in order to diminish the organizational and monetary advantages that the so-called frontrunners have.
Think of this like Blitzkrieg. The opposition is on two flanks. One or both has more resources and more immediate access to resources. How do you win? You plan well, and, when the time comes, you strike hard and fast. Thats what shes set up. Three months ago, Sarah was facing a two front war, with Mitt Romney (the Russia of the race) on one flank and his ally Michelle Bachmann on the other flank. Why commence the battle on that field and at that moment?
As I wrote in my previous submission about Sarah being alley cat smart she knew that it would be tough enough to beat Romney one on one. A two-front war would be infinitely more difficult. So, she baited Perry in to neutralize Bachmann. Perry has done just that. At the same time, I suspect that she knew her friend well enough to know that hed (a) neutralize himself and (b) be the perfect crony capitalist foil when the time comes.
And so it was that everything was in place for an entry into the race about 10 days ago, right after Perrys debate meltdown. Yet Sarah did the oddest thing: She not only didnt enter the race (or give strong indication that is her intention) but also gave last night an interview to Greta that dropped a lake full of water on the Palin for President fire. Why? Doesnt she realize that the first state filing deadline is October 14? Doesnt she realize that shes been giving us all of these announce by dates, first the end of August, then the end of September, and then that talk about November with Hannity a few weeks ago? And, why does she have all these paid speeches early next month, including one in South Korea on October 11? Why? Why? Why?
Perhaps the answer is suggested best in something George Bernard Shaw once wrote: You see things, and you say Why? But, I dream of things that never were, and I say Why not? Listen to this clip from an interview with Bob & Mark on November 6, 2008. Listen to Sarah talk about grassroots and about needing the mood of the country to reveal itself in the 2010 elections. Think about the new media. We often hear Sarah talk about an unconventional campaign. Perhaps the more appropriate description is a revolutionary campaign, a campaign the likes of which we never have seen and which Sarah has spent about three years envisioning and amending as conditions changed.
Here, the doubting Palinsta may interject: Thats all well and good . . . why hasnt she announced yet? The answer: Because until last night THEY were expecting an announcement by the end of September or first few days of October. Ooooh! The light bulb goes on. Everything crystallizes. The tactics become clear. And, here is what I expect to see over the next two weeks:
Sarah Palin will announce that she is running for President by October 9. I dont know how shell do it. I dont know where shell do it. She may do it in one of those speeches before her trip to South Korea. Personally, Id announce on October 6. Let the media scramble to get to the speeches on October 7 and 8 and then turn the South Korea speech into an all eyes on Palin moment. Yes, she could announce later, but Id like to think she doesnt plan to waste that trip to South Korea. As a non-candidate, next to nobody in the country will cover it. As a candidate, everyone will cover it.
It is as a moment like this that I remember more Sun Tzu: Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment- that which they cannot anticipate.
Sarah has set that up. After last night, what is the last thing in the world theyd expect her to do in the next 10 days? Is it, perhaps, to go relatively dark and then pop out with a surprise announcement, maybe something like a tweet that simply says #GAMEON?
At this point, Id be remiss if I didnt interject three quick comments:
1. While I am speculating that she will announce later next week, it is entirely possible that she may wait an extra week until after the trip to South Korea but before the first filing deadline on October 14. This is, however, not what I expect for reasons previously articulated.
2. If Sarah announces before the trip to South Korea, then I do not expect her to participate in the October 11 debate. While logistically it would be feasible for her to get back just in time to attend, I doubt that she would be expected to attend under the circumstances. I would expect her first debate to be the CNN debate on October 18.
3. I dont care whether Christie runs or not. If he doesnt run, then thats fine. If he does run, then hell hurt Romney and Perry a lot more than hell hurt Sarah. I keep saying this is why she keeps saying the more, the merrier.
Oh, by the way, I have not ignored the possibility that I could be wrong about all of this (and in the process more wrong about this than Ive been about anything else in my life). Perhaps THEY are right about her, even though I think shed rather die than admit this. Perhaps she sincerely has other reasons like family not to run, even though I think that staying safe is not why Sarah does what she does.
Ok, never mind . . . shes running. Shes always been running. The indecision isnt genuine; its feigned. The tactics may confound because theyre unconventional, but the strategy always has been obvious. All warfare is based on deception. Every battle is won or lost before it is fought. Everything is in place. She has occupied their minds with the mixed signals, and the extraordinary moment is upon us. They should have been able to anticipate it, but Sarah isnt playing their game anymore. Shes playing her game. Still doubt me? Just look at how she approached the 2006 Alaska governors race (and her entry into that race), and then remember yet again that the past is prologue and that Sarah remains, as Tony Knowles once observed, alley cat smart.
A true patriot, conservative with common sense.
Thank you LORD!
Any ballots cast yet? Nope right? It will be a battle between We The People vs the political/media elites? Choose this day who’s side you wish to be on. We The People should win right, like we did the last election cycle. We need more recruits right? Will the political/media elites provide them. It is kinda up to us “We The People whether it is Sarah or Herman or they team up to defeat the elites. Get your popcorn granny and enjoy the ride.
You have the gall to say she needs to shut up. You’re a lying sack of excrement when you make that statement about her “dropping immensely”. All you’ve done is complain about her, since I first noticed yr screeds.
Get a life and quit yr bit chin’. If you want somebody else, promote them, but you should stay off these threads unless you have someting of substance to contribute. Your opinion is beyond worthless! Sarah Palin will likely be our next President! If she doesn’t run, I’ll be surprised. In my opinion, you’re just another troll!”
Charming!
Lying sack of excrement? How winsome. You will definitely get more Palin supporters that way!
By the way, just to clarify, I think you meant this for someone else. I never said she is “dropping immensely”. I think you hit “reply” just a little too fast.
Maybe a little too eager to use that new, exciting “sack of excrement line”?
Loosen up, take a chill pill and calm the emotions down. It’ll do you good.
I'll bet she'll be back!
Palin has a cult like following now. Logic and reason almost don't matter to many of her die hard followers. We are in cult of personality territory now. It's been sad to watch.
This woman is extremely soft on illegal immigration.
That's the way I remember it, at least when she was running for VP in 2008. As I recall she towed the McCain line about not deporting illegals as solution because it wasn't humane, and she DID support a path to citizenship. Unless her position is "evolving", her views don't seem much better than Perry - yet Palin fanatics ripped him apart over it.
Thanks! That sounds factual. So much guesswork on the subject of SP, it’s good to get the facts now and then.
Back to guesswork though — mine is she won’t get in, and it’s going to demoralize the base bigtime. The slime media wins, not only removing her from politics, but discouraging other good people from getting involved.
Meanwhile Romney slides through the opening quicker than goose crap, and wins the nomination handily; while Palin “mavericks” herself into irrelevance and oblivion, which is the fate of most mavericks.
How typical. Stir the pot, tell somebody they need to STFU and then pretend everybody else is being emotional. You’re the one who started with the “emotions”.
Yes, so some are arguing both: that she has been running for over a year now and just waiting for that surprise date to let us know AND at the same time she and Todd are still soul searching for a decision. That contradiction is 'having your cake and eat it' too.
The second argument is of necessity :
1) She STILL tells us she hasnt decided, the view of honesty requires she has not
2) Team Sarah slapped down Rove for saying she has decided
3) She said Bristal was incorrect in telling FNC (on camera) she made a decision
4) If/when she announces she wont run, some (smart ones) dont want her accused of stringing Republicans along esp when she said she didnt want to do that. This is especially important if the election goes badly.
Excuse me.
I did not say that.
I quoted someone else who used that term, and put a sarcastic response after it.
You need to slow down, take a deep breathe, and read more carefully. And yes, you and all the others here need to be less emotional.
You toss a lot of venom at Palin - what's up with that? So she's not on your schedule - don't like it, don't support her.
I'm not thrilled with any of the other options, but I don't slap 'em around on FR (well, maybe slap Huntsman a little....)
Whoever it ends up being we've got to get behind to take out Zero, can we agree on that?
Palin has been attacked with lies and smears for 3 years. The PDS memes are straight from the left and regurgitated by “conservatives” on FR. We’re sick of it. Go tell someone else to calm down.
Hey! Go easy with my screen name there, FRiend!!! LOL!!
But you're about right...there are two types of folks who are in Palin's corner.
Those who support her in general and who would vote for her were she to be the winning candidate and nominee, but who retain the objectivity and judgement to challenge some of her positions and actually disagree with her from time to time.
Then there are the Palin fans....
It would be really helpful if those folks would identify themselves beforehand so that we could be more guarded in our comments about the Governor. These fans brook no interference or criticism of Governor Palin....and are just a weeee bit touchy!! But they are all fine folks nonetheless!
Thank you, absolutely. I will crawl over broken glass to vote for Palin if she is the nominee, as I will do for whomever is the Republican candidate.
LOL, you dont matter to them :)
Here's a direct quote from the interview:
"...on Fox News you had a host who said Sarah Palin in the polls, she's way way down there in the polls, and I'm kind of scratching my head and going, wait a minute, on another network, on CNN just the other day, they showed a poll where I was like within 5 points of President Obama, I was doing well, much better than many of THE OTHER CANDIDATES...7.05 minutes into This Video
Quite revealing, pretty much revealing that she sees herself as a candidate.
I still wonder why Palin was driving her family around in that brightly marked bus to these sites. Why didn’t they just go in an unmarked bus?
“Didnt Sarah say shed announce her decision by the end of this month? That gives her... well, um, today and tomorrow.”
Clearly the PDS that you suffer from keeps you from understanding that it is grossly unfari and bordering on sexism to expect to be able to hold her to something that.....she......said.
Oops.
:)
Palin Position on Immigration
According to Palin there are 12 million illegal immigrants in the US and deporting them is not possible economically as well as it is not a humane way of dealing with the issue. They should be made to follow rules and made to understand that legal immigrants should have the first preference of opportunities provided by this great country. If they follow the rules they can be treated fairly and equally in the country.
Not having expressed her views on illegal immigration often, Sarah supports citizenship for illegal immigrants but feels there is no amnesty for the illegal immigrants. Priority should be given to the legal immigrants before granting opportunities to the illegal ones.
She has reached out to the illegal immigrants requesting their needs. She feels that they require more vocational training, the end of gang violence, assistance to seniors and mostly outreach and communication within their communities. Palin insists on a diversity task force.
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