Posted on 09/24/2011 9:13:41 AM PDT by Kaslin
In Part I of this series, "Iran at our Doorstep," published in the August issue of A Line of Sight, I documented Iran's continued quest to develop a nuclear weapon. Additionally, I explained the Iran-Venezuela-Russia alliance currently constructing a military missile base on the extreme northern coast of Venezuela well within reach of many heavily populated U.S. cities. The publicly stated purpose of building the base is to provide the capability for Venezuela to launch missiles at "Iran's enemies."
Subsequently on September 4 we published contributing editor Major General Paul Vallely's article summarizing the release by the United Nation's IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) of a "restricted report" regarding Iran's continued nuclear activity. Consistent with the documentation shared on these pages last month, the U.N. nuclear agency said it is "increasingly concerned" by a stream of "extensive and comprehensive" intelligence coming from "many member states" suggesting that Iran continues to work secretly on developing a nuclear payload for a missile and other components of a nuclear weapons program.
General Vallely now serves as Chairman of Stand Up America, a private organization that includes numerous former military and intelligence community experts and analysts. In his September 4 article, Vallely wrote, "SUA believes strongly that Iran now possesses low yield nuclear war heads that can be mounted on the Shehab missile and deployed on the oceans in container ships with the Russian provided Club K missile launch system." The General went on to explain that Iran's objective is to "launch EMP (electro-magnetic pulse) weapons on U.S. Coastal cities and freeze our national grid systems."
A June, 2011 RAND report agreed with Vallely's analysis. According to RAND senior defense policy analyst Gregory S. Jones, Tehran's nuclear program has progressed to the point that "it will take around two months for the Iranian regime to produce the 20kg of uranium enriched to 90 percent required for the production of a nuclear warhead."
The window may have slammed shut on the opportunity to prevent Iran from going nuclear.
Americans are increasingly concerned about the vulnerability to a cyber-attack. On a personal level, that could involve the hacking into one's personal financial or other identity information. A cyber-attack could also escalate to a much larger scale of a corporate or large network cyber-theft, and certainly a cyber-attack that penetrated our various government, military or national security agencies could be catastrophic.
But, an EMP attack would be even far more destructive and life threatening. For those unfamiliar, one of America's most experience terrorism experts, RP Eddy, offers this layman's definition: "An EMP is a result of a nuclear explosion, or of another weapon, that releases a wave of electrons that will fry every electronic gizmo or tool that civilization needs to survive." Among his lengthy and distinguished credentials, Eddy served the Clinton Administration on the National Security Council as the Director of Counterterroism, and following the 9/11 attacks founded the Center of Tactical Counterterrorism in New York.
This isn't just theoretical or "Hollywood" fantasy. A quick search will yield a large library full of information and warnings about EMPs dating back over many decades. The U.S. found out about EMPs somewhat by accident during the World War II era when some of our own planes were affected by our own nuclear weapons tests. Although no nation has deployed an EMP, it is commonly accepted that many developed nations have such weapons. Since the technology required is considerably less sophisticated than advanced nuclear weaponry, experts believe that nations with developing nuclear capabilities and terrorist organizations may find EMPs far too appealing.
In a 2009 interview with Fox News, Eddy explained that part of the appeal to perceived lesser powers is that an EMP is far easier to build than a traditional nuclear weapon in part because it doesn't have to be as accurate nor as long range. And there are far too many bargain priced aged missiles lying around that can be picked on the cheap and nukes galore, too. Most estimates put the Russian stockpile alone of old and new nukes at more than 10,000. Eddy also referenced the ability to launch an EMP from a "floating barge" – the same Club K Russian weapons technology that looks like a common semi-truck trailer highlighted by Vallely in his September 4 article, and now being marketed to the world.
The above graphic is from 1997 congressional testimony, and it has been repeatedly referenced since that time to demonstrate that a single explosion sufficiently high in the atmosphere could paralyze the entire North American continent. As Eddy explains, an EMP attack would "fry" everything electric, and the "power grid would be out for months." Not only would our cell phones and computers not work, neither would hospital systems, air traffic control, food production and refrigeration, manufacturing, distribution of goods and services, financial transactions and records….you get the picture.
Frank Gaffney is a former Assistant Secretary of Defense and was in charge of Nuclear Forces and Arms Control Policy at the Pentagon under President Reagan. Currently, Gaffney is President of the Center for Security Policy. His warning of the potential devastation from an EMP attack is terrifying. "Within a year of that attack, nine out of 10 Americans would be dead, because we can't support a population of the present size in urban centers and the like without electricity," he says. "And that is exactly what I believe the Iranians are working towards."
Senator Jon Kyl, previously the Chairman and now Ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary's Subcommittee on Terrorism and Homeland Security, is deeply concerned about the vulnerability to an EMP attack. He says that it "is one of only a few ways that the United States could be defeated by its enemies – terrorist or otherwise. And it is probably the easiest."
"A terrorist organization might have trouble putting a nuclear warhead on target with a Scud, but it would be much easier to simply launch and detonate in the atmosphere," Kyl wrote in the Washington Post. "No need for risk and difficulty of trying to smuggle a nuclear weapon over the border or hit a particular city. Just launch a cheap missile from a freighter in international waters – al Qaida is believed to own about 80 such vessels – and make sure to get it a few miles in the air."
In addition to the 9/11 Commission charged with review and making recommendations following the 9/11 attacks, the government established The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. The Commission released their first report in 2004, about the same time as the 9/11 Commission, and a subsequent report in 2008. Unfortunately, only a few politicians like Sen. Kyl even paid attention. In fact, there have been at least six national commissions as well as the government commissions to issue reports on the threat of EMP. But, virtually all of the warnings and recommendations of the experts have been ignored. "Congress has merely deliberated it, but has not taken substantive action," according to the Heritage Foundation. "The Administration and federal agencies remain mostly ambivalent."
One of the most damning indictments of the 9/11 Commission's findings was a "failure of imagination." America couldn't imagine that we were vulnerable to a terrorist attack inside our border on the scale of 9/11. Have we allowed our imaginations to fall asleep again?
As threatening as an EMP attack is, there is also a great deal that can be done. The EMP Commission says the "appropriate national-level approach should balance prevention, protection, and recovery." Both comprehensive reports by the Commission contain specific recommendations to accomplish that balanced strategic approach. Unfortunately, we have done virtually nothing while the capabilities of our adversaries continue to advance.
James Carafano, the National Defense and Homeland Security expert at the Heritage Foundation offers this straightforward agenda:
1. Fund comprehensive missile defense
2. Develop a National Recovery Plan and a plan to respond to severe space emergencies.
3. Require more research on the EMP Threat.
Carafano also voices a frustration that echoes across the pages of the EMP Commission's 2008 report. "Simply recognizing the EMP threat would go a long way toward better preparing America for the unthinkable."
It has been ten years since the 9/11 attacks, and America has not suffered another significant attack on the homeland during the decade. Our national bravado and the passage of time cause us to not dwell on the unknown nor take seriously "death to America" pledges by tyrants like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. If as the experts warn, a single EMP attack could put America "back to the 19th century," do we not need to be vigilant?
In addition to a complacency developed from extended relative peace, by ignoring our increasing national security vulnerabilities and the capabilities of our enemies, America presented a target that was exploited by our enemies on 9/11. We have done much in the last ten years to prevent terrorists from flying planes into buildings, again, but are we ignoring an even bigger threat?
Iran either already has or is rapidly developing weapons technologies capable of great damage to America and our allies. In addition, the regime is expanding influence globally, particularly in South and Central America that further threatens our national security and global balance of power. In the coming weeks, we will expose more of the extended threatening web that the Iranians are weaving, and why it can neither be ignored nor tolerated.
‘One Second After’ is a good book about an EMP attack.
Really? Close the barn door after the horse runs off?
What we need is a battle plan to eliminate the threat.
I sometimes wonder if that would really be such a bad thing.
There are many ways to protect and insulate against voltage surges due to high-altitude electromagnetic pulse, and they can be repaired. The problem is, the US grid AFAICR has minimal protections.
. . . you mean, while our enemies stay in the 21st Century?
I sometimes wonder if that would really be such a bad thing
"a single EMP attack could put America "back to the 19th century"
Isn’t that were 0-bama wants to put us?
This new triple alliance could work, I suppose ...... but it's a lot like strapping three Shetland ponies together, to take on Whirlaway or Secretariat.
Exactly!! How quickly would gangs of homos go cannibal? Probably after missing an episode of Glee.
A Real Zombie apocalypse: Dems without a Federal Government
When the rest of the world survives unscathed, you would find out how life is for the average Somali today, if you weren't part of the 90% mortality figure.
Translation: No, it would not be a good thing.
“I sometimes wonder if that would really be such a bad thing. “
I think after 100+ million people starved to death things would settle down into a comfortable routine.
The “EMP Threat” seems to come up every three or four months. Must be important for us to know, to get such regular reminders.
We seem to have this thing going where every week or so someone posts a story about an EMP attack on the United States. I think that speaks to our fears about our vulnerability, in the same way folks used to talk about nuclear war back in the 1950s and 1960s.
However, I have a different take on this.
Let’s say someone did launch an EMP attack.
For starters, the destruction of electronic equipment would not be complete. There would places where geography (living on the right side of a mountain, maybe) or happenspace (stuff in the basement, for instance) would prevent damage. I live in Alaska, and I our state isn’t anywhere near the initial pulse on the map.
Yes, there would be chaos and death. And that would provoke anger and outrage among the survivors. And those survivors would be focused on revenge. The sweet little passive-aggresive notions of containment and rendition and touching the Koran just right would go out the window and be replaced by warfare that would make Sherman’s march to the sea seem like a Sunday jaunt. And the survivors would do it. I don’t see the collapse of the United States following an EMP attack - I see the creation of Pax Americana on the cinders of the republic, with the gleeful support of the population. Then we would vaporize our enemies in the tradition of the Romans, salting the earth and razing the cities, and establishing ourselves, this time for real, as the world’s policeman.
Oh, yes. The rebuilt electronics would all be hardened against an EMP.
You couldn’t be more right!
Our plans to survive an EMP attack - and yes, One Second After, though quite poorly written, paints a good picture of the effects - are like a person making a self-defense plan in a gun fight.
Imagine you’re in a field with no natural cover. You watch a guy named Iran a long way away. You know he wants to kill you. He’s loading his handgun’s mags .45 with T-Series rounds as he begins to cross the field towards you to get in range. His intent is clear.
Besides a holstered 1911 as a backup, you have an M14 with a round already chambered, and many mags of ammo, but you leave it lying on the ground next to you, deciding instead that the best course of action is to make sure you have a bullet-proof vest on - you don’t have one, but you spend a lot of time trying to fashion something protective to wear out of things lying around you on the ground. And while you do this, Iran is coming closer.
You decide then that it might be a good idea to put together and gather to hand some battle dressings and antibiotics and fluids to help you survive the wounds he will inflict. Maybe a bit of food and such to ride out the prolonged recovery you might expect if you survive. You check your bag to see what you’ve got, and scurry around to see what you can improvise from material at hand. You make plans for crawling off to get more after you’re shot, if you can. He’s getting closer.
Then it occurs to you that a cell phone with the numbers of neighbors and emergency responders might be helpful after he’s unloaded his mags into your body. You scurry through your pack to make sure you have that at hand. You can’t be too prepared. He’s almost in range now.
Without upsetting him with a threat of any sort, you then try to talk him out of his attack. He says nothing.
As he gets in range, brings his handgun up to target your center of mass, and squeezes the trigger, you find yourself engaged in an internal debate about any other last minute preparations you need to make, and about how best to proceed once the bullets strike.
Lights out.
It would be devastating...for Iran.
>>>You make some good points about not every device being effected, however, if there is no “juice” running to your outlets anymore it won’t matter all that much if your (fill in appliance here) is still ok.<<<
You’re correct. However, an infrastructure can be rebuilt - and the EMP isn’t going to remove the wires, just the generators and transformers. The technological knowledge also remains intact. And once the electricity is restored, the workable devices are still there, too.
I just don’t see our culture collapsing completely after an EMP. Partially, sure. I’d imagine that some places would be hellholes. On the other hand, I’d also imagine that some places would be up and running again within days.
Those folks who are either unprepared, either mentally, intellectually, or physically, would also seem to be the folks who will die or panic. Those who survive will already be prepared, and then they’ll go through the trial by fire. The high-fives in Caracas and Tehran wouldn’t last long.
My metaphor for Rome makes sense in my mind. They had a republic which was in constant upheaval from civil war and inner conflict, yet they kept expanding at the same time. When it looked like the republic would collapse, they established an empire. Outsiders look at us and see ferment and a lack of cohesion, but they’re not looking at the culture, and nothing brings about camaraderie than shared sacrifice. An EMP, in my opinion, would be a colossial error by the attacker. Culture isn’t the appliances in the kitchen. On the other hand, I can see some guy boiling water for a year getting more and more pissed off with each water haul, and when the infrastructure is rebuilt, that anger will be directed outward. IMHO
I agree.
On another level, I was at a conference recently and heard directly from those within the utility industry how many cyber attack attempts they are getting a week--most very sophisticated and thought to originate from foreign sponsored sources/governments. They are getting so many that they are almost (in my perception) numb to it and take it as an expectation.
Those attackers only need to be successful one time, and no messy fingerprints as the way a nuke/EMP would be.
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