Posted on 09/20/2011 11:54:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Elizabeth Warren has had an incredibly successful launch to her Senate campaign and actually leads Scott Brown now by a 46-44 margin, erasing what was a 15 point deficit the last time we polled the state in early June.
Warren's gone from 38% name recognition to 62% over the last three months and she's made a good first impression on pretty much everyone who's developed an opinion about her during that period of time. What was a 21/17 favorability rating in June is now 40/22- in other words she's increased the voters with a positive opinion of her by 19%.
The surprising movement toward Warren has a lot to do with her but it also has a lot to do with Scott Brown. We now find a slight plurality of voters in the state disapproving of him- 45%, compared to only 44% approving. We have seen a steady decline in Brown's numbers over the last 9 months. In early December his approval was a +24 spread at 53/29. By June it had declined to a +12 spread at a 48/36. And now it's continued that fall to its current place.
Brown's position has always been a little tenuous as a Republican in a strongly Democratic state, making him very dependent on the support of Obama voters to stay above ground. In June he was at 72/17 with McCain voters and now he's at 74/18, pretty much the same. But with Obama voters he's gone from 35/48 to 27/62, accounting for the entire drop in his overall approval numbers. It's a similar story when you look at the horse race numbers. Last time Brown led Warren 87-6 with McCain voters and now it's 87-9. But with Obama voters Warren's turned what was only a 47-24 lead into a 68-20 one.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
I hope Brown wins but he is the last Republican I will be helping in 2012.
Scott Brown seems to have infiltrated the R Party, when he is clearly just a Liberal/Progressive. Having a D winning his former position won’t cause the vote record of the Seat to change at all. It’s a matter of the count or R’s vs. D’s, and the vote margins.
They feel betrayed, with good reason. Most that I have spoken to will find real conservatives in other races to occupy themselves with. The good news is that many of the state committee people being elected are tea party folks.
The ineffectual chairwoman Nassour announced she'll be getting out of the way in October.
PPP has boosted Dems in the crosstabs.
In 2010 elections, Gallup identified Mass as 13% Rep, 35% Dem and 50% Independent.
For this PPP poll, its suddenly 40% Dem and 45% Independent and 15% Rep. You see what they did here, turned a 14% spread from Dems to Ind into a 5% difference between them. They effectively gave the Dems a 9% advantage head start on real numbers.
Elizabeth Warren comes across 10 times flakier than Coakley or Croakley or whatever her name is. She’s easily flustered and takes a God-Almighty condescending attitude to anyone who dares ask her a hard question I think she will go down in flames. Brown is a strong incumbent. Warren is tied to a failed Administration. If Brown could win in 2009, I think he can win in 2012.
Brown would need to run against Obama Ecomony. He will not do that being the RINO he is.
I was sure on election night when Big Media didn’t complain when Brown offered up his daughter to the crowd.
I didn't waste that much; but I did waste some money on a contribution to Mitt, Jr., er... Brown. He was elected to stop Obamacare; but they passed it anyway. Now he is in the uncomfortable position of appealing to nobody. The dems will vote for e "real" dem, and republicans will not waste time and money on his RINO a$$.
I won't be shedding any tears. He's gone so far left since he got in that I doubt he'd actually vote to repeal Obamacare if he got the chance.
For what it's worth I will vote for Brown and so will many other conservatives in this state. We can't afford having another liberal democrat senator from this state.
Nevermind Mass Residence Bill...
How many drove up from FLA, LA, TX to man the phones for his guy. I sent out a mass email to people that no idea he had a chance or who he was and that was worth 500 large for his coffers ( yes they are pissed ). I tried to call remotely and they were overwhelmed, I couldn't do it.
But his vote on Don't ask Don't tell and Yay on Dodd Frank were too much for many here and TP'ers.
Dodd Frank did it for me. He probably said yes after Fidelity and all the other Mutual Fund companies in MA got what they wanted via his proviso's, remember he held out for a couple of weeks.
Dodd Frank is a flippin' nightmare, on CNBC they noted it will take 10 years for the Financial community to get used to or be able to operate within it. It must be repealed, but tangent to that is Scott will pay a very high price for his votes.....
That would explain the poor numbers for Brown. Thanks!
I’d willingly give up MA, if the Republicans can take Democrat held seats in:
Florida
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvannia
Virginia
Wisconsin
I’d also give the GOP New York, if Giuliani would stop playing tease at the national level and serve his countrry and party by taking on the weak incumbent.
If you’re in MA, vote for the rino over the commie. But this is not a race to get excited about. The Dems know that if they get it back, it’s their’s for life. Therefore, the Dems will spend a fortune on it. It would be foolish for the GOP to do the same in matching the Dems in spending. You’ll get more bang for your buck in conservative or swing states.
That’s also why conservatives should consider leaving MA if possible. Conservatives are essentially disenfranchised and there is little hope of changing the culture in MA. In fact, MA’s ruin by Leftists serves as an example for other states to avoid. MA has already provided us with one; the disaster of government health care aka ‘Romneycare’.
Way to go Bay State!
I’m rooting for him to win.
He’s a lot better than Kennedy & Kerry. I suspect that he’ll drift further to the right after he wins a SIX year term.
If nothing else, he’s one more vote against Harry Reid for Senate Majority leader.
Can anyone tell me whether Brown has given conservatives anything that would make him a better choice than the Democrat?
Went to an outdoor Pre-Xmas Event in "Deetwaa" (Detroit) and she got boo's....
I mean Deetwaa should be a lock for her, and I wasn't booing....
Scotty has the single female aborting demographic locked up, and they dominate MA elections.
ok bye scott. next time be a republican.
She is going to provide Brown with a pretty tough challenge.
Massachusetts is deep, deep blue, and she is perfectly positioned to tap into populist anti-bank anger.
Don’t underestimate how many people out there would pull the lever for Hitler Reincarnate if he promised to cut their credit card interest, ATM fees and mortgage principal. The wacky NDP in Canada vaulted from 4th. place to second on promises such as these.
Biggest problem she is gong to have is she sounds like an Okie, and most Bay Staters think they are far too sophisticated for that.
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