This is as stupid as it gets. Out of 10 people, 3 were probably right in every election since 1984. His factors are backward looking, and self-fulfilling.
Yep, he is full of sh*t. People I trust who’ve been right more than wrong...see him gone...maybe, even before the election.
I agree, I called every election for the winner since Reagan’s reelection. That’s when I learned to just absorb the ambiance, ignore the polls and listen to my gut.
This is meaningless hype. Obama is going down. He’s going to be written off as a failed experiment. We’re Conservatives, so it is natural for us to loathe the man and detest what he has done to the country. But the real key is the attitude of the Independents.
They don’t really dislike Obama, but they are tired of him. They’re tired of his fat-a$$ed nagging wife with a face that scares babies, and they’re tired of his ineffectual fumbling with the levers of government.
They’ve had enough of socialism and want an American as President again.
1984 - 50% probability - 50 out of 100 “chickens” would get it right.
1988 - 25% probability - 25 out of 100.
1992 - 12.5% probability.
1996 - 6.25%
2000 - 3.125%
2004 - 1.0625%
2008 - 0.53125%. So a 50% chance that one “chicken” would have guessed all of these correctly.
When you factor in the races that were not close, and were not going to be close - as we are not chickens picking randomly - the sagacity of our prognosticator is hardly well established.
My father had a 100% accurate track record in picking who was going to win Presidential elections from before 1984 even ......
But he got it wrong with 0bama - he thought McCain was going to win.
So much for his record!