New CNN Poll: Perry sits atop GOP field

CNN ^ | August 29, 2011 | CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Washington (CNN) – A new national survey is further proof that Texas Gov. Rick Perry's entrance earlier this month into the race for the White House has dramatically altered the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll of Republicans and independent voters who lean towards the GOP, Perry now sits atop the list of Republican presidential candidates, with strong support from most demographic groups.

Full results (pdf)

The survey, released Monday, indicates that 27 percent of Republicans nationwide support Perry for their party's nomination, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who's making his second bid for the White House, at 14 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin follows at ten percent, with Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at nine percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who's making his third bid for the presidency, at six percent. Every one else listed on the questionnaire registered in the low single digits.

The survey follows a Gallup poll out last week which also placed Perry at the top of the GOP field. Other polling released in the past week also confirms the findings of the CNN and Gallup surveys.

"Perry's support is higher among Republican men, at 32 percent, than Republican women, at 23 percent, but he has more support among either group than any other candidate," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

According to the survey, Perry supporters tend to be older and have higher incomes, but the longtime Texas governor also tops the list, albeit by smaller margins, among lower-income Republicans and those under 50 years old.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Finally! Something worth watching at the airport loading gate.

[samtheman]

This will be dismissed as:

a) CNN propaganda

b) irrelevant since Sarah’s about to wade in and take it all away.

(Just sayin.)

[RED SOUTH]

Perry appointed friends and donors to the Teacher Retirement System Board who steered hundreds of millions of teacher dollars - and millions in fees - to firms run by Perry donors.

In 2000, when Perry took office, the TRS had more assets than it needed to fund retiree benefits for more than 30 years.

But by 2010, the TRS has an unfunded liability of $21.6 billion.

[samtheman]

Two interesting things about this poll:

1) Palin beats Bachmann, which means to me that Bachmann (the announced candidate) is pretty much through.

2) Ron Paul is back down at 6%, where he probably always was, those 12% and 14% numbers in other polls probably way, way off.

[Gen. Burkhalter]

Unless SP gets in soon, this is quickly becoming a two person race. The other candidates are not making any headway. Bachmann seems to have flamed out after being upstaged by Perry after she won the straw poll.

[samtheman]

I guess I’m missing your point. Was this a poll of Teacher Retirement System Board members?

[tsowellfan]

I've heard that Sarah Palin will undoubtfully get a 30% point lead over Perry and the rest of the group within the first two hours of announcing. I would love to see the faces of the Romneybots when that happens.

From what I've been told by hardcore Sarah Palin supporters the reason for the delay in announcing is to minimize having to debate against Perry and the others in the group. The less time she's actually in the race the less chance of committing any gaffes and being pounded by the media.

I can understand this approach however it also minimizes time to improve yourself in the debates in preparation to go against Obama himself. It also denies the American people the exposure to get to test drive you before deciding to vote for you in the primary.

Not sure how this strategy will work out in the primaries but in the general election it was devastating for Al Gore who tried to minimize the number of debates with George W Bush.

Another problem with waiting things out so long is the "Fred Thompson Effect". As supporters wait and wait and wait the expectations grow and grow and grow until they have the candidate blown up so big that not even God could fit into those expectations.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Hope he enjoys his 15 minutes of fame before the REAL Conservative Sarah Palin jumps in.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

HORSE RACE WITHOUT RUDY GIULIANI OR SARAH PALIN

-—Aug. 24-25-——Aug. 5-7-—— July 18-20

Perry-— 32%-———18%-————17%

Romney— 18%———23%-————22%

Bachmann 12%-———9%-————14%

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The frontrunner 15 months ahead of time rarely wins the nomination.

[ConservativeDude]

irrelevant since Sarah’s about to wade in and take it all away.”

“could” happen...but the clock’s ticking.

By the way, weren’t Perry’s numbers supposed to be like Cain’s and Trump’s?

[samtheman]

I never thought Bachmann was going to stay “on top” very long. Republicans are desperate for a win in 2012 and I don’t think they see Bachmann as the ticket to victory. I sure don’t. I like her, but I don’t see her winning.

[deport]

Where will the numbers be once Aug 2011 is flushed from the list?

2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Perry	Romney	Palin	Paul	Bachmann	Giuliani	Gingrich	Cain	Santorum	Huntsman	Spread
RCP Average	8/4 - 8/21	21.0	18.5	11.0	9.7	9.5	9.3	5.5	5.0	2.0	2.0	Perry +2.5
Gallup	8/17 - 8/21	25	14	11	11	7	9	3	4	3	1	Perry +11
PPP (D)	8/18 - 8/21	27	17	13	6	10	--	7	7	3	2	Perry +10
Rasmussen Reports	8/15 - 8/15	29	18	--	9	13	--	5	6	1	1	Perry +11
FOX News	8/7 - 8/9	13	21	8	6	7	7	6	5	2	2	Romney +8
CNN/Opinion Research	8/5 - 8/7	15	17	12	12	7	12	5	4	2	4	Romney +2
USA Today/Gallup	8/4 - 8/7	17	24	--	14	13	--	7	4	1	2	Romney +7

[ConservativeDude]

The frontrunner 15 months ahead of time rarely wins the nomination.”

Interesting calendar you are using there.

Do you understand that the GOP primary will be over in about 6 or 7 months?

[roaddog727]

“in preparation to go against Obama himself.”

Since when can Obama debate?

LOL

That’s a good one.

[samtheman]

I agree. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m just anticipating the posts that will appear on this thread.

As for myself, I will have a tough decision to make if Palin jumps in because I’ve already assumed she won’t and have pretty much fully switched my allegiance to Perry.

If Palin does run, I definitely have some hard thinking to do.

[tsowellfan]

Hope he enjoys his 15 minutes of fame before the REAL Conservative Sarah Palin jumps in.

Been there, done that. I was a Fred Thompson supporter. Waiting and waiting and waiting only grows expectations above and beyond the point that even Jesus Christ would have trouble filling.

[Signalman]

Perry will be participating in the debates now that he’s an official candidate. If he does a competent job and doesn’t make a major flub, I don’t see him losing too much ground over the next year.

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

But by 2010, the TRS has an unfunded liability of $21.6 billion.

Some details would be helpful, because in 2010 I suspect that TRS, along with every other pension that invests in the stock market, was hurting pretty badly compared with 2000.

P.S. I'm in TRS myself, so I really do want to know the details.

[Persevero]

“If Palin does run, I definitely have some hard thinking to do.”

We have time. No worries.