A dose of reality for those who subestimate a minimal hurricane.
Irene turned into a hurricane as it was passing through the San Juan Metro area, so it was a minimal hurricane when it went over.
Bear in mind, in Puerto Rico most people’s homes are built like concrete bunkers and we have a lot of experience with hurricanes.
Damage that I saw first hand - again - as a minimal hurricane:
1. Glass windows in condos unhinged or simply blown off by the pressure differential.
2. Large tree branches (more than 5’ thick) snapped like twigs, many trees down.
3. Horrific sounding wind blowing all kinds of debris around, especially along the high rises of midtown San Juan.
4. An overturned car.
5. Downed lampposts.
6. Severe urban flooding (just from the rain - no storm surge in San Juan).
7. A pipe-and-canvas car shelter blown away, which landed half a block away on top of a house.
8. An air conditioner unit that shifted position along the roof because it was pushed by the wind.
9. Although most people got their electricity back within 24 hours, many are still without power nearly a week later.
10. Scarce ice for four days.
11. I lost over $100.00 worth of groceries in just two days.
12. One and a half days of lost productivity at work.
Just to keep things under perspective.
Thanks for posting your local post-storm summary. Much appreciated.
- Long Duration of Sustained Winds: Based on Irene's massive size and the relatively slow speed at which she is moving, many of the locations from NC northward into SNE are going to experience sustained winds (even if they are TS level, e.g., 60-70 MPH, vs. Cat 1 level) for 24+ hours. That is a long time for everything including people, buildings, and trees to withstand. (Of course, there will be periods of higher wind gusts all throughout, which will serve to increase the stress level up and down.)
- Very Saturated Ground: As noted by many, a great deal of the EC has seen very high rainfall totals for August (e.g., in NJ most places are at 200-600% of normal). This presents multiple problems: root systems are looser than normal, no where for the additional rain to go, catch basins, reservoirs, and sewers are already full in many spots.
- Very High QPF Totals Expected: We've seen double digit QPF modeled for a lot of places along the expected path. Dropping 12+ inches on new water into a very saturated environment will likely lead to massive inland flooding.
- Coastal Geography: many locations along the path have narrowing inlets that are heavily populated along the coast. Forcing the extreme amount of surge that comes with a massive storm like Irene will be forcing a tremendous amount of water up into narrowing “dead ends.”
- NYC & LI Coastal Geography: While many have correctly pointed out that Gulf storms are surging a mountain of water into an enclosed area, there is also a very problematic geographic consideration when you look at the coastal geography of NNJ, NYC, and LI. You basically have a right-angle elbow of LI extending out into the Atlantic. Since this surge (from the massive Irene with all of her attendant energy) is coming in from the SE, it is being directed right into the crook of the elbow (and of course NYC boroughs are located right above). So this massive storm surge (which is more than likely going to be the equivalent of a Cat 2, regardless of what wind speed Irene arrives with) is all being jammed into this tightening funnel.
- Tidal considerations: Many EC locations are experiencing their highest tides this weekend. Given such a long duration event based on Irene's size and speed, some areas may experience 2 High Tides during Irene's passage. That just furthers the coastal flooding potential.
- Power Disruptions: Given the extensive swath of EC real estate that is going to be affected by Irene's windfield for a prolonged period of time, there are chances of really “widespread” outages. And if you consider how reciprocity works when a few states are hit hard, a lot of help comes in from adjoining states. Well, in Irene's case many of the naturally adjoining states will be out as well. Hence help will be coming from all across the US, and there may be weeks of effort required. Also, if you consider that the EC is one of the most densely populated areas of the country, think about the massive amount of infrastructure that will be affected. I suspect the larger population centers will get the most immediate attention for economic considerations, this will leave many in the more sparsely populated or more rural areas stranded for what could be many weeks.
I could go on an on but I think I made my main points. Sorry for the long winded rant but I have been a bit annoyed at hearing some people simply minimize the threat of this storm based on wind speed and/or “category,” without taking into consideration the most relevant factors.
Let's all stay safe, help each other out, and remain in prayer for the duration!