- Long Duration of Sustained Winds: Based on Irene's massive size and the relatively slow speed at which she is moving, many of the locations from NC northward into SNE are going to experience sustained winds (even if they are TS level, e.g., 60-70 MPH, vs. Cat 1 level) for 24+ hours. That is a long time for everything including people, buildings, and trees to withstand. (Of course, there will be periods of higher wind gusts all throughout, which will serve to increase the stress level up and down.)
- Very Saturated Ground: As noted by many, a great deal of the EC has seen very high rainfall totals for August (e.g., in NJ most places are at 200-600% of normal). This presents multiple problems: root systems are looser than normal, no where for the additional rain to go, catch basins, reservoirs, and sewers are already full in many spots.
- Very High QPF Totals Expected: We've seen double digit QPF modeled for a lot of places along the expected path. Dropping 12+ inches on new water into a very saturated environment will likely lead to massive inland flooding.
- Coastal Geography: many locations along the path have narrowing inlets that are heavily populated along the coast. Forcing the extreme amount of surge that comes with a massive storm like Irene will be forcing a tremendous amount of water up into narrowing “dead ends.”
- NYC & LI Coastal Geography: While many have correctly pointed out that Gulf storms are surging a mountain of water into an enclosed area, there is also a very problematic geographic consideration when you look at the coastal geography of NNJ, NYC, and LI. You basically have a right-angle elbow of LI extending out into the Atlantic. Since this surge (from the massive Irene with all of her attendant energy) is coming in from the SE, it is being directed right into the crook of the elbow (and of course NYC boroughs are located right above). So this massive storm surge (which is more than likely going to be the equivalent of a Cat 2, regardless of what wind speed Irene arrives with) is all being jammed into this tightening funnel.
- Tidal considerations: Many EC locations are experiencing their highest tides this weekend. Given such a long duration event based on Irene's size and speed, some areas may experience 2 High Tides during Irene's passage. That just furthers the coastal flooding potential.
- Power Disruptions: Given the extensive swath of EC real estate that is going to be affected by Irene's windfield for a prolonged period of time, there are chances of really “widespread” outages. And if you consider how reciprocity works when a few states are hit hard, a lot of help comes in from adjoining states. Well, in Irene's case many of the naturally adjoining states will be out as well. Hence help will be coming from all across the US, and there may be weeks of effort required. Also, if you consider that the EC is one of the most densely populated areas of the country, think about the massive amount of infrastructure that will be affected. I suspect the larger population centers will get the most immediate attention for economic considerations, this will leave many in the more sparsely populated or more rural areas stranded for what could be many weeks.
I could go on an on but I think I made my main points. Sorry for the long winded rant but I have been a bit annoyed at hearing some people simply minimize the threat of this storm based on wind speed and/or “category,” without taking into consideration the most relevant factors.
Let's all stay safe, help each other out, and remain in prayer for the duration!
Especially after that mega-quake the other day. It's a real one-two punch for sure. Someone needs to post that image of the knocked over chair... this time with a second chair blown over.
One thing is the 9/11 Memorial Park is within the Category 1 Surge zone;
Unless they do some real serious sandbagging I suspect it will be flooded and ruined.
Thank you, zzeeman! I do appreciate your detailed explanation. If Irene is a big nothing, I’ll have a lot of food and drink for weeks to come and my survival kit ready for another “just in case” situation in the future. In the meantime, it’s a bit scary considering we are not used to such storms. Being on this thread together is a big help. :)
Who has sustained winds at 60-70 MPH? I keep checking all the weather stations and I can’t find a thing over gust of 45. I’ve lived in Florida all of my life. I know a bad hurricane or tropical storm when I see one. Of course there are power outages. Weak limbs fall on the power lines or the power lines were not maintained well. 45 MPH should not snap power lines.
It could actually drop to Tropical Storm strength at this instant
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psssst, that thing has been a tropical storm or depression for a while now.
Very well said. Some folks just like to be naysayers without bothering to provide any real information or analysis to back it up.
UPDATE ON MY FRIEND WHO WENT TO NYC TODAY....
First, thanks to you all for your concerns re my friend who had planned a lovely 5 day trip to NYC with her 21 yr old daughter to see broadway shows, etc. and was determined to go, regardless of this hurricaine. I was sure she would not be going, with all the plane cancellations, etc.
Today I talked with her husband ( we are all in Jax, FL )who told me that my friend and her daughter HAD FLOWN UP THERE very early this morning.UNBELIEVABLE.
This woman has never been to NYC, they forgot their cell phones in the car, etc. If the broadway shows were cancelled she was “going to get some food and stay in the hotel (Manhatten) and walk around in raincoats”.
I am hoping they will be fine and the worst will be they are very bored.
Please say a little prayer for them.
Maybe its just me being over reacting and they will come back from their ‘adventure” telling me I am a chicken.
Here are links to all of the weather stations in NC.
Here are links to all of the weather stations in VA:
Maryland:
DC:
NJ:
NY:
They can’t all be wrong. If you trust NOAA, I don’t know what else to say.