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Locked on 08/26/2011 10:04:55 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/20/2011 4:22:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Irene has developed from Invest 97 in the Western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Leeward Islands.
Buoy Data:
Caribbean Sea
Florida
Thank you. People like that drive me insane.
“THE” biggest fear is a direct hit on NYC?????? Maybe for the people there, but not elsewhere as we are all worrying about direct hits on us which would occur much before a hit on NYC as we are a bit further south.
Max sustained winds 120 mph, 952mb
Irene is ~790 miles S of Cape Hatteras NC
Moving NW at 12 mph
Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the center
Tropical storm force winds extend 255 miles from the storm center
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Thank you for your work in keeping us updated with this thread.
Not good news.
Thanks.
I’ve noticed a very stiff sustained breeze here on Miami Beach, though the eye is like 280 miles away...A very serious storm indeed!
Have you ever been in or near a hurricane?
I’m so thankful to not be in the path of Irene...my thoughts and prayers are with those who are.
~720 miles S of Cape Hatteras NC, 80 miles ESE of Nassau Bahamas
Max sustained winds 115 mph, 950mb
Moving NW at 12 mph
Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from center
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles from center
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
The same forecast track map is at the top of the thread. Click on it to enlarge.
Amen.
Would you mind if I did that for my Mom too??
Course not. Go for it.
Of note:
SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
Yep, I'm gonna be the alarmist today.
On Wednesday, I suggested to watch where the eye is positioned as the storm passes Governor's Harbor, Bahamas around dawn Thursday. By last evening, the projected track had already been moved about 12 miles west to the western side of that town. This morning, Irene is tracking to a point at least 12 miles further west of that. It's not much, but it shifts the angle of approach closer to the US mainland, which means a sharper turn is required to avoid the NC Coast come Saturday.
As a result, I'm starting to become very concerned for the entire NC outer banks region... a direct hit over the entire area is still very possible from Camp LeJeune and Cape Lookout. Those in the area of Emerald Isle/Atlantic Beach/Morehead City/Pine Knoll Shores/Beaufort should make plans to leave now as a landfalling Cat 3+ storm is coming, and the exit highways are both narrow and few. Also note that the south-facing coastline will be suceptile to the MAXIMUM storm surge at points east of a landfalling eye. Barrier island overwash would be both possible and common (Emerald Isle to Salter Path most prone, plus parts of Atlantic Beach).
The critical question will be when the turns to the north and then the northeast occur. Irene needs to be tracking east of the WEDNESDAY track (roughly 77.3W) by the time it passes Daytona (29.2N) to miss the Carolinas... and so far, that's not happening.
Even so... a "miss" is a relative term given the size of this critter.
Oh, one more thing: NOAA Buoy 41010 is next in line to feel Irene... likely overnight early Friday AM. Should be close to the eye wall.
Current discussion at NOAA has Irene going to Cat 4 (135 mph) tomorrow.
They’ve slowed the forecast forward speed as well as shifting the track back to the west. Yesterday it was going to be off the Jersey coast at 2AM Sunday, but now it’s off the NC/VA border. They have to be seeing some signficant changes in their models and those changes are not good.
Your point is pointless - first, the models have shifted the forecast track back to the west, and second, that is EXACTLY why they call it the cone of uncertainty - something you'd know if followed hurricanes on a regular basis like a lot of folks on this thread do.
Just a slight jog further to the west and this is a major event for NYC. Not only that, but it is a logistical nightmare - because that puts the entire length of Long Island into play for the dirty side of the storm, and evacuating the entire island is a logistical impossibility.
Yeah, the media over-hypes storms, but so what? We know that already. But sometimes the hype ends up being justified, and this could well be one of those times. We just don't know yet.
Thoughtful analysis—thank you.
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