Posted on 07/17/2011 1:13:00 PM PDT by neverdem
There is no statistically significant warming trend since November of 1996 in monthly surface temperature records compiled at the University of East Anglia. Do we now understand why there’s been no change in fourteen and a half years?
If you read the news stories surrounding a recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Boston University’s Robert Kaufmann and three colleagues, you’d say yes, indeed. It’s China’s fault. By dramatically increasing their combustion of coal, they have increased the concentration of fine particles in the atmosphere called sulphate aerosols, which reflect away solar radiation, countering the warming that should be occurring from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Further, if this is true, then (as is usual in climate-world), “it’s worse than we thought.” After all, China will eventually reduce their sulfate emissions as their population becomes affluent enough to demand something better than miasmic air. Indeed, they are already beginning to clean things up, and when they finally do, all the cooling particles will be gone and the earth will warm substantially.
Reality may be a bit simpler, or much more complicated. But the reason this is all so important is that if there is no good explanation for the lack of warming, then an increasingly viable alternative is that we have overestimated the gross sensitivity of temperature to carbon dioxide in our computer models.
One problem is that we really don’t know how much cooling is exerted by sulfates, or whether they are just a convenient explanation for the failure of the forecasts of dramatic warming. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which grants itself climate authority, states that our “Level of Scientific Understanding” of the effects range between “low” and “very low,” with a possible cooling between zero (none) and a whopping 3.5...
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.forbes.com ...
In before steely!
More details at
www.icecap.us
www.wattsupwiththat.com
The warmest say that anything is possible except that we are wrong.
The best we can do is take what happens every year...and guess that it's gonna happen next year, too...with a little variation.
Only a catastrophic event will modify the future of "climate".
It sure is awfully hot in Texas this year and dry. Sick of it! Was real cold last winter though..
Well, it did warm up about eight years ago. It’s doing so again but not as much as around 2003 or so. In about three years or so, it’s going to start getting mighty cold.
;-)
Well..it’s wet, and cool here in the Pacific Northwest....and we count on JULY, AUG, SEPT for SUMMER....not looking good.
What do you mean? MSNBC keeps telling me the world is the warmest it’s ever been, so it MUST be true! /sarc
Because facts weren’t needed to convince the AGW faithful? They believe whatever the consensus (snicker) builders tell them without proof.
The warmest what?
We need to bring back steam engines and ships now!!! ;-)
Um, what’s the simplest answer to this question?
I think there is a simple answer to that question. God is having a little fun with the warming cultists and the pop science crazies.
What is a warmest? I think it is a branch of terrorism.
If true, it looks like our expensive, low sulfur, diesel fuel is adding to global warming.
” . . .. we have overestimated the gross sensitivity of temperature to carbon dioxide in our computer models.”
I believe this imputes too much rationality, too much of a commitment to impartial scientific inquiry on the part of the Druids of Carbon Dioxide the Culprit.
They always come up with this global warming crap during SUMMER...I wonder why.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.