Posted on 07/01/2011 10:48:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Could President Obama beat Rick Perry in Texas in a general-election showdown?
According to a new poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, Obama would beat Perry 47 percent to 45 percent. That’s within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. But in that same poll, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul beat Obama by 8 and 5 points respectively, while Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty would also win the state (albeit within the margin of error) in the general election.
Dave Carney, a top political adviser to Perry, dismisses the PPP poll, telling National Review Online in an e-mail, “PPP has a long track record in Texas of being wrong.” He pointed to a June 2010 PPP poll that had Perry tied with Democratic gubernatorial Bill White at the same time a Rasmussen Reports poll had Perry 8 points ahead. Perry went on to win in November by a 13-point margin.
“That poll’s wrong,” agreed Ted Delisi, a strategist who has worked as a consultant for Perry during previous gubernatorial campaigns. “I don’t think President Obama has a chance of carrying Texas, regardless of who the Republican nominee is going to be.”
Carney said the poll would have “zero impact” on whether Perry opted to run in 2012.
Yet, pair that with a May University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll showing that only 4 percent of the state’s Republicans would vote for Perry in the GOP primary, and there are bound to be questions about Perry’s in-state popularity — and if Texas Republicans aren’t crazy about him, will Republicans nationwide be interested in nominating him?
Right now, it’s certainly not the case that GOP voters nationwide are skeptical about a Perry candidacy. A Fox News poll released yesterday showed him in second place, commanding 13 percent support among primary voters.
Larry Sabato, director of University of Virgina’s Center for Politics, thinks that the PPP poll “reflects Perry’s controversial nature.” “He is not the most popular figure there. He’s got a lot of enemies. He went as low as 39 percent in his 2006 reelection,” Sabato observes.
Still, Sabato says he “laughed” at the PPP poll’s results. He remarks, “I don’t care how much money they spend. President Obama isn’t carrying Texas.”
Joshua Trevino, vice president of communications at the free-market, non-partisan Texas Public Policy Foundation, points out that Perry is no stranger to defying the odds in competitive races. “With Governor Perry in particular, you are looking at a guy who has fought and won many elections starting from a pretty unfavorable position — most famously, the last gubernatorial election,” he says.
In that election, popular, moderate Texas senator Kay Bailey Hutchison mounted a primary challenge against Perry. According to a February 2009 PPP poll, she had the support of 56 percent of likely GOP voters to Perry’s 31 percent. But on Election Day a year later, Perry won 51 percent to Hutchison’s 30 percent — even with tea partier Debra Medina siphoning off 19 percent of the conservative vote. Once again, Perry had proved it wasn’t accidental — or even just lucky — that he’s never lost an election.
In March, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina told donors in Texas that Obama might make a “serious play” to win the Lone Star State, according to Politico. If that’s still the Obama campaign’s endgame, they must be hoping it’s not Perry who wins the Republican nomination.
— Katrina Trinko is an NRO staff reporter.
Are you serious? Why do you post this crap? Texas is a non-starter for Democrats.
Use your head.
1) Austin and The Valley will vote vote for Obama. Maybe some of Dallas and Houston...MAYBE.
2) Obama will not get the kind of vote totals in the Valley he got in 2012 and Austin is a lost cause conservatively speaking for GOP
3) After those places, Obama is toast.
4) Even the blue dog democrats I know have had ENOUGH of Obama. They are sitting out 2012.
5) Even if the illegals COULD steal vote, they HATE Obama.
6)the Dream Act ain’t passing anyway.
7) Romney’s a Mormon and HE would get Texas along with it’s strong evangelical vote WAY before Obama
8) BIG military presence in Texas
9) Big oil has seen how Obama has hamstrung the Energy sector in Texas and many of them are DEMOCRATS!!
10) Many college kids who voted in 2008 for Obama have relocated to Texas and they will NOT make the same mistake twice. Having a lower wage job in Texas certainly beats living in shame in Mom and Dad’s garage in Louisiana.
You can add Georgia to that 'never carry' list.
He wins Texas only by election fraud....
But that aside this an IMHO all polls are total bull shit.
That’s the long form of BS used elsewhere.
Stay Safe....
Further proof that he who runs a poll can get whatever result he wants. Just the MENTION of the name “Obama” in much of Texas will get you very dirty looks (to begin with). While there are a bunch of idiots in Austin, Houston, San Antonio, etc., the thought of Obama even beating Elmer Fudd is laughable.
bullshit....
Just another Dems pick the Republican candidate pieces. Stopped reading after this sentence.
I didn’t post the poll pal.
“Let’s put it this way...
Obama lost Texas by 12 points to John McCain, and that was when Obama was generally popular and was widely considered to be the Hope and Change that this country was looking for.
Now suddenly, we are to believe that with double digit U6 unemployment, a huge debt that threatens to bankrupt this country and record budget deficits, Texas is going to suddenly love him?
Something is rotten in the State of Texas ( with apologies to Shakespeare and Marcellus ).”
Nothing rotten - at least with regard to this matter. Obama not only won’t win Texas, he’ll lose by a much larger margin. While the hard-core libs will vote for him again, many of the usual fence-sitters that voted for him for whatever reason won’t be making that mistake again. Either they’ll sit at home, or they’ll actively vote for his opponent.
Obama’s opponent will win Texas by 18-20 points. Whoever did this poll is on some very powerful drugs.
I will be shocked if he wins anything south of the Mason-Dixon line this time (including FL). I think VA and NC have learned their lesson.
Let me clarify- he ain’t losing Maryland which is south of the Mason-Dixon.
This native Texan calls BS to this poll. If Zero were to win Texas, there’s not enough tequila in the world to drown my sorrows.
All:
Perry received 41% of the Hispanic vote this last election. My congressional representative is Hispanic (Francisco Conseco) who is VERY conservative, yes on illegal immigration too. Two terms prior to that, we had Henry Bonilla, another fiscal and social conservative Hispanic. My point being, don’t assume that all Hispanics are liberal Democrats who will vote for Obama.
PPP did a poll in Moscow and the results show the Marxist beating Putin by 15 points! /sarc
Question: How illegal aliens votes will he need to carry Texas?
If 0bama is re-elected, America isn't America anymore.
No doubt.
As a Texas resident, would you have any information on the best way to contact Kaye Bailey Hutchison and get a response?
I need to ask for her help on opposing a spending bill in the Senate for a bill that was proposed by Patty Murray, from my state. Hutchison is the ranking R on the transportation subcommittee that is handling these Gateway projects (part of the UN Agenda 21 Wildlands project). Bailey has been supporting all of these projects across the country.
It’s sure a good thing that she didn’t beat Perry for governor. I know that Perry almost got fooled into supporting one of these projects, too, but it didn’t go through. Hutchison was behind it.
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