[Note: above is clickable to NWS Storm Prediction Center]
Posted on 05/24/2011 6:44:43 AM PDT by FourPeas
[Note: above is clickable to NWS Storm Prediction Center]
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 240919 ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-241800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0419 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE JET STREAM.
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO ASSUME STRONG...SUSTAINED ROTATION...AND TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..CORFIDI.. 05/24/2011
$$
I’m in the southern part of the “high-risk” area - don’t think we get into this weather pattern but every 3 or 4 years at most. Scary, but nothing out of the ordinary. Severe weather is par for the course this time of the year, and is nothing out of the ordinary. The fact that storms have incidentally struck high-density communities of late is the only reason for irrational alarm.
A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BECOME LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE 450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
Thank you. I'm a firm believe in the escalation of supernatural end-time upheaval, but this isn't it. Tornadoes, even violent ones like the "Tri-State" storm you mentioned, have been menacing the Central/South U.S. in the warm months for centuries - the fact that populations and "sprawl" are much more widespread increases the likelihood of reporting and casualties.
I think we have been lulled into a stupor of complacency by a fairly long period of relatively tranquil weather events, making this current, more "normal" episode appear more violent. Prospective really becomes valuable here.
Convective initiation seems to be underway in Washita and Jackson Co in Oklahoma...storm tops are already 30-40 kft...
“Yes, I do.”
Wonderful story! The last one I saw is linked below, it was highly photographed/videoed because it wasn’t rain wrapped. It’s hard to tell but behind it are beautiful blue skies. I was on the backside. No one was hurt, although it nearly took out my beer store....;) Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_kzKP0IYSY
Wow! These things will “explode” from nothing to mammoth mushroom clouds in nothing flat.
They sure do...impressive! The storm moving from Washita into Custer County will be the one to watch in the near term..and if it can become rooted in the boundary layer.
great place to keep track of todays and tomorrow events...with reports from both public and private meteorologists, storm chasers, and other weather experts and hobbyists... FYI quick free sign up required to view images posted...
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/14-centralwestern-states/
Just wow is right! All the parameters are there today for a significant outbreak...it’s fairly rare to see the NWS use the word “Violent” to describe the expected tornadoes.
Storm in Custer Co already is severe and has indications of hail up to 1.75 inches and some rotation.
You have a good eye my FRiend. I'm in far west OK, and there some very impressive thunderheads already forming to my east.....may I ask which link you are using?
wow, I’ve been in some smaller ones in Texas as well. Once while I was inside a small concrete building, in seconds, the sky went from a bright blue to pitch black and a wind so strong the people outside could not even get to shelter, just huddled up against the windows, I couldnt even open the door to get them in, that thing must have dropped right down on us
I’m using GRLevel2 radar software (purchased) with a subscription feed from Allisonhouse...btw, I am in California lol
Which county in Oklahoma are you?
Explosion in next 2 hours. Look at LL moist visible satellite coming north thru Texas.
LIS: -10, CAPE: 4500, Helicity 400-600 m/s
Approaching dry air is not a huge factor but it will enhance the bad weather.
I'm glad you guys understand that talk, I sure don't!
Kudos for common sense.
LOL! Yes I new you were in California and guessed you might be using commercial software. I'm in Roger Mills county. Anyway keep us updated, we'll have our eyes on the sky all night here although the big outbreak should be to the east of us. Regards.
What is your basis for comparison?
has it ever been this bad?
This may end up being a (slightly) record setting year ... but that is really almost a meaningless statement. Before about 100-150 years ago, who knew? Few folk kept records, and such as were kept were so spotty as to be nearly useless for present comparison.
WE HAVE NO WAY OF KNOWING how (un)usual this year's storm activity may be.
Will do...Headed off to lunch now, but the cell in Custer may go tornado soon!
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