If Obama wins, it will be anti americanism 1 America 0
Game over.
Seriously, I think the guy will be toast. The economy is in retreat, again, taxes will be going up, dollar is dropping like a stone which will increase inflation and he has lost the middle ground.
Palin and West win...House and Senate under (conservative) control.
LET’S ROLL!!!!!!!!!!
Tim Pawlenty 53%
Barack Hussein Obama 47%
....unless my worst nightmare comes to pass, in which case
Barack Hussein Obama 43%
Donald Trump 36%
Tim Pawlenty 21%
I predict
Too many RINOs and Too Many Democraps get elected into Congress, they continue to spend and tax like mad, and the dollar becomes the unsupportable paper it is.
Republicans put up another partly good candidate for President and skip over good/better candidates.
Election too close to call because no matter how bad Obama is, even the bad candidate like a ROMNEY or TRUMP will get 49% of the vote.
I don’t want talk about percents and minorities and independents, etc.
I want to see a breakdown of the new electoral map as of the time after the latest census.
Seriously, Obama is not taking Florida and I want to see the electoral college breakdowns in the other states.
What are we looking at and what does Obama Hussein need to win
It will be a charade. Chicago politics will win.
Drinking heavily
I’ll be voting for Sarah Palin, Liberty, our Constitution and American Exceptionalism.
Palin will win.
Higher debt.
Weaker dollar.
Restraint of trade.
Restrictions on 1st Amendment Rights.
Spring 2013 - Treasury bond sales are cancelled when foreign buyers fail to show up.
Summer 2013 - draconian tax hikes/spending cuts are proposed in Congress (party not important) to try and fill the hole in the budget. Attempts to again raise the debt ceiling fail, since no one will loan us the money anyway.
Fall 2013 - Chinese troops occupy Hawaii, Guam, and all other US possessions in the Pacific for non-payment of loans.
Spring 2014 - April 15th comes and goes quietly. Most people don't bother to file, and no one at IRS bothers to prosecute. Dollars are worthless - the new currencies are food and ammo.
Summer 2014 - in its last act, Congress changes the country's name from America to Argentina, before scattering like roaches. POTUS, VPOTUS, and their families disappear as well, along with AF1 and most of the gold reserve. AF1 is eventually found with a new paint job, on a remote dirt airstrip in AZ.
Nov. 2014 - There are no elections in 2014. People are too busy stealing to survive or shooting looters. Besides, who would be stupid enough to want the job?
Of course the intangible in all of this is... "it's the economy, stupid!".
Being a smooth talking professional BS'er can only go so far....if the "reality" means many people are still suffering with higher fuel/food costs, job losses, etc.....then my cat will be able to beat him.
...as the trillions borrowed/spent with little or nothing to show for it in the econcomy will sink "The School of Saul Alinsky" method's actor/Soros puppet-boy faster than Pelosi's face without botox.
It'll come down to the youth vote, if they forget about college loans and no prospects of decent jobs to pay for them...and instead listen to the Kenyan drum beat of MTV/MSNBC glorification of "The One"...and show up again in Nov. '12...he's in.
...if instead they use their head and grasp reality, he's toast.
Wouldn’t be surprised that Networks banned from reporting election results by State. Instead, they’ll announce only one thing....Obama won.
Soap Box, Ballot Box, Ammo Box . . .
An un-apologetic Conservative will win or there will be civil war.
I will be a deeply unhappy camper, but I predict that 2012 will see a Romney/Huckabee ticket or a Romney/DeMint ticket.
I even think they might win. I can’t see myself voting for Romney, but I can’t see the United States making it through “4 More Years” of the Obamanation intact, either.
So... I’ll have to have a serious pep talk with myself if Romney/anyone else comes to pass.
You’re not serious, at this point in time are you???
Forgive me for believing it is not a serious question at this point in time.
Obummer will be disqualified from appearing on the ballot in three states, due to challenges to his natural-born-citizen status. The Department of Justice will feverishly battle the three states in court.
A conservative newcomer will step forward, or else a “draft Allen West” movement will begin.
Okay, Given even the current lackluster GOP Field, I think the race can still be divided into the following categories:
Safe Obama Socialist States (196)
Hawaii (4), California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), District of Columbia (3)
Safe GOP States (209)
Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Utah (6), Arizona (11), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Georgia (16), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5). Thanks to the Tea Parties, 3 States will easily be claimed back in Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that you will see the Obama campaign pretty much cede back.
Likely Obama Socialist States (26)
Nevada (6) - If we couldn’t win this in 2010, is it safe to assume the Las Vegas/Reid Voter Fraud machine will be up to the task
Pennsylvania (20) - Yes, we had success here in 2010, but the Senate race was still razor close and the Philly voter machine will be out in 2012 just like it was in 2008. It’ll be closer than last time, but the Dems still have a 4-5% lead here.
Likely GOP States (39)
Missouri (10) - We’ve shown time again that we have enough votes to offset KC/STL and the voter fraud machine here, even with a weak candidate.
Florida (29) - The Dems are in deep dog-doo here. If the GOP can’t win here when the convention is also being hosted in Tampa, then throw out everything I’ve said because it won’t matter. Obama campaign will make a play for it, but they will be on serious defense in the upper Midwest and trying to hold on to the Southwest.
GOP Leads 248-222 with Safes/Likely
Toss-Ups (68) (In Order of Importance)
1. Ohio (18) - Obviously important, but not the end all for either side. Given what’s going on in WI/MI, it is possible for the GOP to lose this state and still have a somewhat decent chance of winning. Alternatively, the GOP can also win OH, but without winning one more state, they would lose.
2. Wisconsin (10) - Other than 2008, this has always been more of a 50/50 state. The fact WI is in play will at least force the Democrats to spend money here they would rather spend in FL or OH.
3. Colorado (9) - This state has always been my pick for where “Ground Zero” will occur in 2012. If the GOP Nominee has Tom Tancredo full support and backing (which means they must be strong on immigration), then this state is in play. Otherwise, it will be a tough sell. While I understand illegal immigration is an important issue to many FReepers here, given the Electoral College make-up, it’s possible to run a “softee” if that person is strong on the economy, which is what I think will dominate OH and WI.
4. New Hampshire (4) - Mitt Romney (and possibly Newt) have the best chance of winning here. Not sure about the other main candidates and the primary won’t say much about their strength either (considering NH’s President McCain was slaughtered in the General to a guy who was crushed by “the Clinton tears”.
5. Iowa (6) - Whereas immigration (CO), and the economy (OH/WI) play roles in those states, here it is the social conservatives. That and subsidies. Because all these toss-up states have different factions of the conservative movement that predominate, I find it hard to find one candidate that can win them all. Example, Huckabee could easily challenge here and win, but he would be crushed in CO and probably every other toss-up.
6. New Mexico (5) - As Colorado goes, I think this follows also.
7. Michigan (16) - Okay, after much contemplating, I’ve added Michigan to the list of toss-ups for now, but that doesn’t mean I’m disregarding the Detroit voter machine. It seems like maybe the people there have finally had enough. Hard to tell though. Either way, the Dems having to pour money into this state is a plus.
Given the toss-ups, I see the GOP winning OH and the Dems winning everywhere else except for CO, which looks like it could decide the whole thing. A few other things I noted:
The EV board is shaping up well for an “Economic” type Conservative. I have to continually repeat that I am not a fan of Mitt Romney because he seems to change with what he sees as “majority opinion”. Nevertheless, given his background and the states in play, he could very well win if the “Mormon fator” in the South doesn’t screw him, and my guess is that it wouldn’t. Newt could also play strong given this board. I cannot give an opinion on Herman Cain yet since I don’t have any data for him, so I guess we’ll have to wait until the primaries or more factors enter the race.
The EV board is also clear at who is at a distinct disadvantage. Mike Huckabee cannot win with this board. Neither can Ron Paul. And while I know I’ll offend some with this statement, it does not look good for Sarah Palin at the moment. This is a board she should defer to say, Michele Bachmann, who through her work in the House, has a much stronger working base knowledge with the Economic issues affecting the country, which is going to be the main issue in this election. Pawlenty doesn’t seem to have any excitement behind him.
Of course, there are two individuals I think would put this map to shame and win in a landslide. Marco Rubio would EASILY win with this map. I’d project him at 320 EV’s and a serious shot of sweeping the entire Southwest (including NV). But he won’t run. I think some calls to his office are in order here. The other individual is Bobby Jindal. Everybody that wants to marginalize him for his 2009 speech obviously doesn’t know the man or seen him talk before or campaign. And yet, he won’t run either.
It’s still early, but this stuff is a lot of fun to analyze. Thanks NavyVet.