Posted on 02/17/2011 2:06:14 PM PST by Hojczyk
So what happens if the cuts proposed by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) prove unacceptable to the Senate and the president? What if there is no compromise? What if nobody gives in?
A budget deadlock, played out over months, will doom Obama and assure his defeat. But an easily won compromise will help him get re-elected.
The central question in Obama's bid for a second term is: Will the issues that doomed his party in 2010 still be the key questions in 2012? If they are, we already know how the election will come out. If they are not, Obama can win.
When the president says he does not "want to re-fight the battles of the past two years," he means that he embraces this reality. He doesn't want Obamacare, high spending, huge deficits, cap and trade, card check and the like to be the items in discussion in the 2012 election.
But he has failed to put forward a compelling agenda for the next two years. That was the essential defect of his State of the Union speech -- nobody is going to storm any barricades for high-speed rail and more R&D spending.
If the Republicans hold firm in demanding huge spending cuts and Obama does not give in, the question of whether or not to cut spending will dominate the nation's political discourse for months on end and will spill over into the 2012 election.
To assure that it will, the Republicans should hold firm to their budget spending cuts without surrender or compromise. If necessary, it is OK to vote a few very short-term continuing resolutions to keep the government open for a few weeks at a time, always keeping on the pressure.
When the debt limit vote comes up, they should refuse to allow an increase without huge cuts in spending. If the debt-limit deadline passes, they should force the administration to scramble to cobble together enough money to operate for weeks at a time.
If Obama offers a half a loaf, the GOP should spurn it for weeks and months. Then, rather than actually shut down the government, let them accept some variant of their proposed cuts but only give in return a few more weeks' time, at which point the issue will be re-litigated. Don't go for Armageddon -- just keep fighting the battle.
Same with the debt limit. Extend it for a few hundred billion dollars and then go back for more cuts in return for a further extension. Make Obama pay for each continuing resolution and each debt-limit hike with more cuts to spending.
Always avoid cuts in Medicare and Social Security. Save those for after 2012. For now, focus on Medicaid block granting and discretionary spending (including some modest cuts in defense).
Like a guerrilla army, never go to a shutdown (a general engagement) but keep coming up with cuts, compromising, letting the government stay open for a few more weeks, letting the debt limit rise a few hundred billion, and then come back for more cuts and repeat the cycle.
And don't just demand spending cuts. Go for defunding of Obamacare, blocking the EPA from carbon taxation and regulation, a ban on card-check unionization and constraints on the FCC's regulation of the Internet and talk radio. Put those items on the table each time, each session.
Every time the issues come up, every time the cuts are litigated, Obama's efforts to appear to be a centrist will be frustrated. Time and again, he will have to oppose spending cuts. Over and over, he will come across as the liberal he is, battling for each dime and opposing any defunding.
Obama's campaign strategy has two elements: Change the subject from the 09-10 agenda and move to the center. A tough, determined Republican budget offensive, embracing all these elements and fought in this guerrilla style, will frustrate both and lead to his defeat.
Earth to Morris. There ain’t going to be no cuts. It’s only a bunch drama queen pols “talking the talk” for photo and soundbite ops.
Agreed. One of these states or two or three needs to pass a BC eligibility law.
Yeah, you’re right. And even though I think he is a smart guy, Morris, no slouch in the drama queen department himself, has a way of making these somewhat stunning predictions as a means of attention-getting (kind of like Ann Coulter)
In any cluster of Dick Morris predictions, ONE of them will be right. I’ll definitely give him that. However, when he issues only ONE prediction, it’s nothing but a crapshoot.
I believe Morris’ strategy is sound...with the exception of the debt limit. The Republicans could go for a general engagement on the debt limit - refusing to increase it at all, even in return for spending cuts - because the public understands the debt situation keenly. Taking spending cuts in return for very short term continuing resolutions keeping the government operating is a sound strategy, but the message would be mixed if they allowed even relatively small increases in the debt ceiling - on that one, an Armageddon position would reinforce their position and highlight Obama’s leftist position even more starkly.
It sounds like very sound strategy to me. I doubt the GOP will do it. For one thing, it’s a lot of work. These guys don’t want to fight with the Democrats. They want to mouth a few soundbites, and then all go to a cocktail party afterwards. “My esteemed colleague from across the aisle”, and all that other nonsense. To do what Morris is recommending would require a continuous effort, and the willingness to stir the pot. John Boehner stir the pot? If he does, it’ll be the first time.
Moot point.
The old line republicans are just looking for a way to fold.
The minute they get a chance to screw over the freshman budget cutters they will jump on it.
Whoever wins the next election must be able to create jobs and make the economy grow. Everyone I know sees Obama has failed to do that and even my Democrat neighbors said “Something is wrong with him.” I believe the main thing that got him elected was the financial crisis and that threw the election. This next election will be even more about the economy. People out here are scared and horrified every day.
In the end it’s always about the economy. Too bad the powers-that-be killed the golden goose.
There are going to be cuts and Morris, like a stopped clock, is right in his analysis.
The GOP has to play it carefully. The last shut down the media shellacked them and they took the blame, not Clinton. They’ve learned from that and are using incrementalism to chop away at it. Don’t give the Dems a shot, just keep chipping away.
If, at the end of the day, we get a continuing resolution that is more than a month long without serious concessions, then you can cry foul.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.