Posted on 02/11/2011 3:41:44 AM PST by SE Mom
From the BBC:
-A huge crowd has gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square for Friday prayers and a mass demonstration against Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak.
-Mr Mubarak defied protesters on Thursday, vowing to hold on to power until presidential elections in September.
-His speech drew a strong response from US President Barack Obama, who said Egypt needed a "clear and unequivocal" transition of power.
There should be someone here who does read Arabic. If unable to find anyone, seek out a translation program. This is slow but effectual. And FWIW, I agree with your assessment of last paragraph. One thing, the majority were not out in the streets in Egypt. There is a strong possibility that the majority will be shoved to the outside of a governing process. This is a discussion for another day though. Once more, Thank You.
The same numnutz that couldn't find his ass in Iraq. He has no credibility at all except for the terrorists.
Agree with you on everything, Doughty One.
You and I have been around long enough to see how these “revolutions” turn out.
Not looking good for Egypt.
I hope the Coptic Christians have already fled.
Tell that to the dead Aztecs and Pueblo Indians of New Mexico
Sobering....
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2672352/posts
Spengler: Chinese weather on Tahrir Square (Must Read)
Asia Times ^ | 2/10/2011 | David “Spengler” Goldman
Posted on Friday, February 11, 2011 3:25:29 PM by mojito
....Egypt has no oil, insignificant industry, small amounts of natural gas, and 40 million people who are about to become very, very hungry. Without figuring out how to feed the destitute bottom half of the Egyptian population, all the talk of “models” is window-shopping.
[....]
What happens next? Egypt’s stock market has collapsed, and its pound has fallen to the lowest level since 2005, with some brokerage-house analysts warning of a 20% decline during the next several weeks. Foreign investors have deserted the market for Egyptian treasury securities, so the central bank will print money to give to the banks to buy government debt.
After half a century of military rule since the 1952 Free Officers’ coup, Egypt’s wealth is concentrated in the hands of the old regime and its family and friends. If this regime is overthrown, and the corrupt nexus of army and business faces expropriation, the entire liquid wealth of Egypt will make a run for the border, along with its current proprietors.
This is a formula for a classic currency breakdown and galloping inflation, which invariably means panic purchases of commodities and hoarding: a collapse of the Egyptian pound, uncontrolled capital flight, inability to finance a current account deficit in the $15 billion range, and chaos in the Egyptian economy. Egypt might appeal to the international community for help, but the largesse offered to 450,000 Gazans will not extend to the 40 million Egyptians living on less than $2 a day.
Egypt’s rulers had a good run as an American client. They have not yet absorbed the enormity of Washington’s abandonment of a reasonably faithful and consistent ally.
(Excerpt) Read more at atimes.com ...
Barry Rubin’s latest — it ain’t pretty, folks....
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2672346/posts
American Thinker: Egypt After Mubarak (fear a radical Arab nationalist Egypt, not Islamist Egypt)
American Thinker ^ | February 08, 2011 | Barry Rubin
Posted on Friday, February 11, 2011 3:17:58 PM by RightCenter
Egypt After Mubarak
By Barry Rubin
Amr Moussa, Arab League secretary-general, went to Tahrir Square to support the protests. The crowd cheered him. This is a symbol that the current government is sinking but also a sign of what the next regime may become.
It appears to be sinking, indeed. But Moussa represents the worst demagogic forces of radical Arab nationalism. Syria, Moussa, and other forces in the Arab world represent that radical wing, while Mubarak followed policies that might be deemed more moderate and Egypt-centered. And as brutally repressive as Mubarak’s regime was, Syria and Iraq — radical regimes — were worse.
Let’s be clear: young Facebook users are not the entire population of Egypt. Let’s speculate about the political blocs that might emerge in a post-Mubarak Egypt.
“Establishment” Reformers: Muhammad ElBaradei has been practically coronated by foreign observers yet his appeal is untested and his organization almost non-existent. One of the most important “secrets” of Egypt today is the degree of his dependence on the Brotherhood. Indeed, of all the possible opposition candidates he is about the closest to the Brotherhood. That’s no coincidence: that’s precisely why he has flourished. And the Brotherhood will run on a joint ticket with him. If he has no strong opponent he will win the presidency and his party will be the largest in parliament.
“Good Government” Reformers: A small party (or parties) of honest true advocates for true democracy. These are the young people out demonstrating who have carried the weight of the revolution so far. But how many votes would they get? Very few. That’s the difference between a demonstration, even of tens of thousands of people, and voting by tens of millions of people.
The Regime Supporters: This is a big question mark. The ruling NDP, even if it changes its name or appears in a totally new guise, could get anywhere from 0 to 25 percent. It seems unlikely now that it could be a factor but even old Communist parties have made comebacks in the ex-Soviet bloc.
The Left: Quasi-Marxists and extreme nationalists who may fragment or produce a joint ticket. They might get 5 to 10 percent.
But suppose Egyptians don’t want the Brotherhood and they band together to support a secular candidate, who might win the presidential election? That brings us back to Moussa. He’s far more popular than ElBaradei, knows how to be a demagogue, is familiar and seems more of a known quantity, and is anti-Israel and anti-American enough to galvanize the masses.
The problem is that both outcomes are bad: with ElBaradei you get the possibility of growing Islamism; with Moussa there is an updated form of radical Arab nationalism.
In either case, the Muslim Brotherhood will not take power and Egypt will not become an Islamist state overnight.
The Brotherhood is not stupid. While wealthy, secularized, urban Egyptians may look at them as a peasant rabble, this group has maneuvered very skillfully in the past. Does it have different factions and tendencies? Certainly it does. Yet it is going to be more united than any other political factor.
My concern, at least for the next three years, is not an Islamist Egypt but a radical Egypt. The idea of a “Turkish model” has been raised, that is an Islamist party in power that advances very slowly but steadily toward the goal. Such a government, however, would show itself most clearly in foreign policy, which is what other countries are most concerned with, of course.
Yet if Moussa wins there will also be a radical Egypt, closer to what existed in past decades before Mubarak, and before him Anwar al-Sadat, came to power.
Either way a post-regime Egypt is likely to move closer to Syria and Hamas, not Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It will not be a good friend to Iran but not very interested in combating its influence. Terrorists, as long as they had other targets in mind, would pass freely through Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood’s protection or the regime’s indifference.
Will the Egypt-Gaza Strip border be opened up? As with all potential dangers we are told there is nothing to worry about. The new regime would not want to make Israel angry, lose U.S. aid, or defy the Egyptian army. But really, would the Obama Administration cut off aid if Egypt opened the border for everything, including weapons? ElBaradei has said he would end the blockade; Moussa would certainly do so.
And is the army going to be the bulwark of democracy in a new Egypt, Turkish style? Well, if the new republic is going to go to a coup we may be back in 1952, which is how the regime got started in the first place. But in discussing the army’s role, observers are missing a key point.
It is conceivable that if the Muslim Brotherhood were going to take over the government altogether and make Egypt an Islamist republic, the army would take action. But that does not apply to a radical nationalist Egypt, with which many officers would sympathize, or even an ElBaradei government in which he maintained the army’s budget and left it alone.
They would accept a turn away from America (in which Egypt, like Turkey, could avoid any actual bilateral trouble with Washington); a high degree of hostility toward Israel; support for Hamas as long as it stays off Egyptian territory; and alignment with radical forces elsewhere, at least if they are Sunni.
Along with the Turkish model, there’s a pattern attractive to Egyptian Islamists: the Lebanese model. Hezb’allah, for all practical purposes, is running Lebanon today. But it is doing so behind a screen of non-Islamist politicians and many political alliances.
Of course, Hezb’allah has the advantage of help from Iran and Syria. Yet in Lebanon the Shia Muslims who form Hezb’allah’s base are only 30 percent of the population. In Egypt, Sunni Muslims are 85 to 90 percent. Of course, many of them — probably a majority — would never support the Brotherhood, yet the Brotherhood’s political base constitutes alone about the same size as Hezb’allah’s direct support.
And even that is an underestimate because the Brotherhood will be cautious and try to rule through others, notably ElBaradei.
Once again, the problem is not an Islamist Egypt in a year or two but a radical Egypt that will wreak havoc on regional politics. At home, the new government would face dreadful economic problems without a way to deliver higher living standards. That’s a formula for instability, demagoguery, and foreign adventure.
One can also expect the development of small Islamist terrorist groups, coming out of the Brotherhood’s impatient hardliners, as happened in the 1990s, to assassinate secular or moderate figures and to attack Christians and possibly tourists.
Certainly, I hope I am completely wrong and Egypt becomes a stable moderate republic at peace with its neighbors and making its people happy and prosperous. But, as the Oslo process and Iranian revolution — among other historical events — have taught, letting one’s hopes determine one’s judgment is the road to disaster.
Professor Barry Rubin, Director, Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center; The Rubin Report blog; Editor, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal; Editor, Turkish Studies.
Check this out:
@time: Update: Obama will send funds to aid Egypt's reform | http://ti.me/gTIJLn #egypt less than 10 seconds ago via HootSuite
I had thought about translation programs, but how does one use that on flapping banners that may be missing a word or letters? I only have rudimentary computer skills.
“40 million people who are about to become very, very hungry.”
And therein lies a serious conservative conundrum. Egypt simply does not have enough land to feed its people properly, nor enough other resources to buy the food. This, of course, is true in a number of other countries. Aside from abortion which is a highly undesirable solution, leaving religious feelings aside, many who have called themselves conservatives have actively opposed ANY form of family planning, except abstinence. If I remember correctly President Bush stopped any funding for condoms in Africa, this despite epidemic HIV/AIDS. The religious argument is that condoms promote immorality, but what about the poor wife whose husband sees a prostitute and then comes home and infects her and her innocent unborn children. This is a serious logical disconnect that conservatives really need to resolve if they are going to be in power here. The consequences of runaway overpopulation in coming decades will not be pretty. For example nuclear exchanges between Israel and other middle east countries, and lob a few on Egypt, thereby reducing the population by a large number. $10 gasoline in the USA.
Spengler is brilliant- as always- the whole piece is a MUST READ.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB10Ak02.html
You make a good point. We have not heard from the everyday Egyptian, just the noisy or well-connected ones. The ones who don’t speak English....
Ah, the tense phone calls with Saudi & Pakistan being mentioned on Fox.
121 Iranians have been executed (that we know of) since December.
“media driven...”
Ghonim admitted as much:
“Wael Ghonim gets last laugh on Egyptian regime”
Arab Herald
Friday 11th February, 2011
(IANS)
http://story.arabherald.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/48fcf33f9aeb6130/id/743412/cs/1/
Google executive Wael Ghonim, one of the principal organisers of the massive anti-Hosni Mubarak protests which resulted in the long-serving Egyptian president finally stepping down Friday night, tweeted his exultation: ‘Welcome back Egypt’.
He also asked his followers to wait for his upcoming book ‘Revolution 2.0’.
For his followers, he tweeted: ‘Wait for my book soon: Revolution 2.0 #jan25’, a reference to his description of the huge protests against Mubarak as an ‘Internet revolution’. He had told CNN International Thursday he will term the uprising: ‘I’m — I — I’ll — I’ll call it Revolution 2.0.’
Ghonim was mostly irreverent in his tweets Friday night, with his profile photo showing a caricature of him sitting holding a laptop while dressed as a scribe of the Pharaoic era.
DNA studies are being done to connect Copts with ancient Egyptians (or not). See this discussion: “most of the egyptians living in the south are descendents of the pharoahs. when i see a painting on the wall of a monument i can relate it to the men/women walking in the streets of upper egyptian villages/cities. the copts are mostly descendents of the pharoahs . some have mixed blood when someone marries a foreigner. in that case, you will see a dfference in the fairness of the skin or hair of the progeny.”
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070719123052AAaFOLK
Those Coptic churches & monasteries....I hope they can survive.
*Now* it occurs to ‘em....
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2672380/posts
U.S.: Egypt must honor Israel treaty (Yea Right!)
msnbc ^ | 2/11/2011 | M. Alex Johnson
Posted on Friday, February 11, 2011 4:21:26 PM by tobyhill
Any new government of Egypt must be willing to maintain peace with Israel, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs says.
Briefing reporters after President Barack Obama’s televised address welcoming the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Gibbs said much work remained to be done.
“This is the beginning of this process, not the end of it,” he said. “The partnership that we have had with the people and government of Egypt for 30 years has brought stability.”
That means it’s “important that the next government of Egypt recognize the accords that have been signed with the government of Israel,” he said, referring to the 1979 treaty that Mubarak’s predecessor, Anwar Sadat, signed with Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin.
The Israeli government so far hasn’t commented on Mubarak’s resignation, but former Israeli officials expressed concern that it could affect the treaty.
(Excerpt) Read more at worldblog.msnbc.msn.com ...
Great point in the phrase of
The consequences
for there are consequences in all taking place in this world. There may be a reason to fear, and there is a reason to not fear. The balance of life, on this planet, always looks to be out of balance. I will offer up a question, If life is going to always be out of balance, and a message of conservatism is not the answer, while requiring people to be responsible for their actions which causes people their own pain when turning to liberalism instead, and the money is never enough, and the giving is never appreciated by then pulling oneself up for their country to remove the need to be a beggar, what will it take to make people depend on themselves, when government is never the answer for all which ails this planet? Should everyone give up and believe in war? Personally, I believe God has a better plan and humans are yet to understand.
Remember this? 03/09/2010
“Pak Minister wants 0bama to be ‘’leader of all Muslims’’
http://news.in.msn.com/international/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4337606
“Adul Gheit claimed 0bama told the Arabs to show patience. 0bama promised that once he overcame some domestic issues, like the Health care reform, he would show the muslim World how to deal with Israel.”
.
read today (very early this AM) where a homicide bomber attacked in Pakistan killing a number of people. What am I missing about these people that seek to kill others for political gains?
Thank you for posting the links.
We are in absolute existential danger.
yes people are about to be sobered, although I pray God will have mercy. Yet if this is God’s plan, it will be God’s plan or the devil having his way for a while, until God turns back to view the devil having his way. I do have to believe God has so many things which are important that this planet cannot expect His undivided attention, each and every moment. This is where man has to fight for himself and against the evil, when God’s attention is elsewhere.
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