Posted on 01/16/2011 3:54:15 PM PST by blam
Positioning For A Food Riots Economy
by: Kevin McElroy
January 16, 2011
On Monday I wrote something that caused my coworkers to look at me even more sideways than usual.
I said, “I think we can expect the words “food riot” to enter the American lexicon sometime in the next 18 months, and I don’t say that flippantly.” Just to be clear, “lexicon” is a fancy word that means vocabulary – and “food riot” is a phrase that refers to a group of angry, hungry, violent people who destroy property because they feel (among other things) that food prices are too high. And yes, to answer any questions from the peanut gallery in my office, I do believe we’ll see food riots in these United States of America sometime in the next year and a half.
I’m belaboring this point because I want to be crystal clear with this prediction, not because I especially like making predictions. Quite the opposite, actually – I detest making predictions because it’s so easy to be wrong on the scope, specifics, time-frame, location, etc. In that vein, if I am wrong about this prediction, it will probably be a matter of my timing rather than anything else.
But where am I getting these crazy ideas? Let’s take a look at an interesting chart from the folks over at shtfplan.com:
This chart shows us that food stamp participation has risen sharply – with no signs of slowing since early 2008. Currently, over 42 million Americans rely on food stamps – or 1/7th of the entire population. Okay, so the very fact that more people are on food stamps isn’t cause for alarm. But what it means is that 14% of people in the United States already can’t afford to feed themselves – and that number is rising. I don’t know what number of people it would take to break the camel’s back. The number already seems ludicrously high.
The other side of the coin is that food prices are rising too – for three simple reasons:
* The first reason is just plain old bad luck. Bad weather around the world, including heat waves in Russia last summer and flooding in Australia right now, continues to put a crimp in global
food stocks.
* The second reason is sustained levels of higher energy prices. Oil is a vital input to most food production in the developed world. Higher oil prices necessitate higher food prices.
* The third is a global currency devaluation race. Trillions of newly minted dollars will increasingly find themselves competing with trillions of yuan, yen, euros, etc. to buy an
already diminished supply of food.
Perhaps the most common response to these facts is to say something like, “wow that’s scary!” But fear is something that children feel when they don’t know how to deal with a situation, or they don’t understand something.
I’m a grown man and for that reason, I don’t fear these trends. I am preparing myself and my family for the likelihood that these trends will continue down the same inevitable path. You won’t see me in a food riot, because I’ve been positioning my portfolio for survival and maybe even profit during the times to come.
Don’t wait for the Government to start talking about this problem. By then, it will be far too late. Start protecting yourself today, if you haven’t already. Here’s what I’m doing:
I regularly buy physical gold and silver. I’ve stopped paying much attention to the price, though I do try to buy on dips if at all possible. (Both are in a dip right now!)
I’ve been buying durable food goods like rice, beans, pasta, flour, salt, etc. It’s impossible to buy “enough” of this stuff, but a 6 month supply isn’t too difficult to amass. I recently bought a bunch of different fruit and vegetable seeds. We don’t have much of a yard, but seeds are cheap and if stored correctly they remain viable for a while.
I also own shares of blue chip companies that will probably continue to be profitable no matter what happens. I'm continuing to buy shares of precious metal miners, oil exploration companies, and other commodity-based securities.
You’ll notice that none of these things is really “crazy” to own, even in boom times. In the event that I’m 100% wrong, and everything’s going to be A-okay-terrific, I can use or sell all of these different assets, and probably not take too much of a bath.
LOL I’ve got two freezers, a refrigerator in the kitchen and a small camper sized fridge here in the bedroom.
Security Guards at one secure exit gate of the supermarket. Beggars everywhere. Be careful when you carry your groceries to the car.
I’m looking forward to this.
A big contibutor to the aging farmer is the fact that there are fewer and fewer young farmers.
Very obvious, of course, but what’s not so obvious is that these newer, younger, farmers are producing 2, or 5, or 10 times as much food as the older farmers they are replacing.
I have a BIL who is still farming at 70, and covering the same amount of land he coverged 30 years ago, (400-500 acres)in the 80’s.
When he retires, since he doesn’t have anyone to hand it down to, it will probably be absorbed into a farm 10 or 15 times as big as his
Think of it as more of a local export industry.
What are you going to do when the electricity goes off?
You do know that ALL Those sub stations are now built out of country and have to be imported?
That’s it in a nutshell.
I also do plenty of my own canning.
In Socialism it always ends up with the Dupes standing in line awaiting the next promised “shipment” of food and other goods. Why would it be any different here?
What’s going to happen when the food stamps won’t cover the cost of steak and the ebt card doesn’t have enough to pay for a replacement flatscreen. The old one got sold for drugs.
The best I’ve heard about relocation is to be farther from a major city than you can get in a stolen car with a full tank.
I plan on making 'moonshine' when tshtf.
According to Nancy Pelosi, this should be a great engine of economic growth ....
I hate to see the small family farms disappear. They are a cultural element in rural America and a part of the icon of the rugged independent individual that used to be the backbone of America. I don’t like the big agri-industries that churn out production at the expense of quality and taste.
Damn, forgot the bourbon.
Thanks for the reminder
I'm making plans not to go to the store. You guys can fight it out...not me.
Was nice to have had a mother and father who actually lived off the land back in the early 30s. All they needed was floor, sugar and yeast. Pap used to walked over 14 miles one way once every two weeks (in the winter) to replenish those because the roads weren't plowed. The rest they got off the land. No electricity, no running water, and they raised us kids till the late 30s when electricity finally came.
The means to protect it isn’t worth squat without the will to protect it. That’s the big problem for most people.
18 months? That would be, hmmmm, let's see now (taking off shoes and socks for counting), Oh, I know! Late 2012!
I recall a couple of years ago Gerald Celente predicting that by Christmas of 2012, a really great Christmas present would be "food on the table".
I remember my mom filled the root cellar with canned stuff. I got to go to the old house and get the wood stove/range someday.
Cut off the oil imports and it won’t be.
We better start getting energy independence or we’re going to be up a creek.
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