Posted on 01/16/2011 3:54:15 PM PST by blam
Positioning For A Food Riots Economy
by: Kevin McElroy
January 16, 2011
On Monday I wrote something that caused my coworkers to look at me even more sideways than usual.
I said, “I think we can expect the words “food riot” to enter the American lexicon sometime in the next 18 months, and I don’t say that flippantly.” Just to be clear, “lexicon” is a fancy word that means vocabulary – and “food riot” is a phrase that refers to a group of angry, hungry, violent people who destroy property because they feel (among other things) that food prices are too high. And yes, to answer any questions from the peanut gallery in my office, I do believe we’ll see food riots in these United States of America sometime in the next year and a half.
I’m belaboring this point because I want to be crystal clear with this prediction, not because I especially like making predictions. Quite the opposite, actually – I detest making predictions because it’s so easy to be wrong on the scope, specifics, time-frame, location, etc. In that vein, if I am wrong about this prediction, it will probably be a matter of my timing rather than anything else.
But where am I getting these crazy ideas? Let’s take a look at an interesting chart from the folks over at shtfplan.com:
This chart shows us that food stamp participation has risen sharply – with no signs of slowing since early 2008. Currently, over 42 million Americans rely on food stamps – or 1/7th of the entire population. Okay, so the very fact that more people are on food stamps isn’t cause for alarm. But what it means is that 14% of people in the United States already can’t afford to feed themselves – and that number is rising. I don’t know what number of people it would take to break the camel’s back. The number already seems ludicrously high.
The other side of the coin is that food prices are rising too – for three simple reasons:
* The first reason is just plain old bad luck. Bad weather around the world, including heat waves in Russia last summer and flooding in Australia right now, continues to put a crimp in global
food stocks.
* The second reason is sustained levels of higher energy prices. Oil is a vital input to most food production in the developed world. Higher oil prices necessitate higher food prices.
* The third is a global currency devaluation race. Trillions of newly minted dollars will increasingly find themselves competing with trillions of yuan, yen, euros, etc. to buy an
already diminished supply of food.
Perhaps the most common response to these facts is to say something like, “wow that’s scary!” But fear is something that children feel when they don’t know how to deal with a situation, or they don’t understand something.
I’m a grown man and for that reason, I don’t fear these trends. I am preparing myself and my family for the likelihood that these trends will continue down the same inevitable path. You won’t see me in a food riot, because I’ve been positioning my portfolio for survival and maybe even profit during the times to come.
Don’t wait for the Government to start talking about this problem. By then, it will be far too late. Start protecting yourself today, if you haven’t already. Here’s what I’m doing:
I regularly buy physical gold and silver. I’ve stopped paying much attention to the price, though I do try to buy on dips if at all possible. (Both are in a dip right now!)
I’ve been buying durable food goods like rice, beans, pasta, flour, salt, etc. It’s impossible to buy “enough” of this stuff, but a 6 month supply isn’t too difficult to amass. I recently bought a bunch of different fruit and vegetable seeds. We don’t have much of a yard, but seeds are cheap and if stored correctly they remain viable for a while.
I also own shares of blue chip companies that will probably continue to be profitable no matter what happens. I'm continuing to buy shares of precious metal miners, oil exploration companies, and other commodity-based securities.
You’ll notice that none of these things is really “crazy” to own, even in boom times. In the event that I’m 100% wrong, and everything’s going to be A-okay-terrific, I can use or sell all of these different assets, and probably not take too much of a bath.
Protect what?
Food?
Me?
I'm hungry just like everybody else.(ahem)
Mortgage? Nope. McMansion? Nope. Fancy car? Nope. Do I care? Nope.
Why am I not worried?
My neighbors have the same check list.
Small town, God Fearing Community? Check.
50% of the world’s population will be dead of starvation before americans miss a meal. It is true we have far too many on food stamps here in america. But it’s also true our foodstamp recipients are just about the fattest people on the planet.
My basement is loaded with long term food storage items. At least a years worth.
My guns are loaded, too.
We are a net exporter to other countries- that we owe huge amounts of money to- so I view this as their problem too.
But I’m expecting them to only make us ‘tighten our belts’.
It will be decades before they could invade us and take our food from us, even at the rate obama is weakening us.
Cheers!
Unopened bourbon keeps forever. Good (best anyway) for about a year after opening.
I have worked with our local production ag sector for more than 20 years. The draconian regulations, policies hostile to agriculture, costs of energy and tax structure (death tax and property tax) are causing a building crisis in the aging of small family farmers and ranchers and the lack of/unwillingness of younger recruitments to take over the business. This bubble will burst in the next 15-20 years causing a crisis in US capacity to continue to produce commodities and no one is paying any attention to it or even seems worried about it. They ceratinly aren’t changing their policies to ease the pressure. If anything, things are getting worse.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ruralamerica/ra173/ra173e.pdf The Graying Farm Sector Legacy of Off-Farm Migration
“The graying trend among U.S. farmers is not new, but it seems to have accelerated during the 1980s and ‘90s. Older farmers are leaving the sector at slower and slower rates. One fourth of U.S. farmers and half of farm landlords are at least 65 years old. Farmers and landlords aged 65 and older own a combined one-third of farm assets. Historical
experience suggests that there will be a gradual turnover of farm assets as farm operators leave the sector at increasingly advanced ages.”
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/news/100825aging.shtml
The graying of Oregon agriculture
“The aging of the Oregon farmer and rancher is a continuing trend. In the most recent census (2007), the average age of principal operator- the person most responsible for the day-to-day decisions and management of the farm- is at an all-time high of 57.5 years old. That is an increase from the 2002 census figure of 54.9 years old. As recently as 1982, the average age of principal operator was 50.4 years old. The data suggests there is a general graying of the Oregon agricultural producer. Nationally, the numbers show the same trend.”
http://aic.ucdavis.edu/aicnews/aicnews.htm
“One thing that hasn’t receded is the average age of farmers, both in California and nationwide. The average age of U.S. farm operators increased from 55.3 in 2002 to 57.1 in 2007, while the number of operators 75 or older grew by 20 percent since 2002, according to the census.
“In California, the average age of the farm’s principal operator in December 2007 was 58.4, up from 56.8 in 2002.”
Then I say “Good Luck on Coming to get it”.
And you are exactly right.
Personally I think our long term goal is to screw the Chinese and by so doing pop those bloated egos called Venezuela and Russia
yep, read that site on a regular basis
survivalblog.com and survivaltopics.com are also very good.
bookmark
Old Pogue and Basil Hayden for special occasions. Maker's Mark for barter.
IMO its intentional. Leftists have always done similar things to food producers.
Economic policies as a whole have pushed people to move to big cities.
“ChocolateChipCookie”
ChocChipCookie, actually.
Fewer characters to type, too, conveniently.
I live on the “bourbon trail”. There are literally at least 60 ric houses holding 20,000 gallons each within 15 minutes of my home.
I wonder how that would affect bourbon as a medium of barter in my locale, in the event of bad times.
Well if you been in their homes the really don’t have much choice.
My office refrigerator is bigger than most of the ones you find in their homes.
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