Joe Miller can win AK Senate Race Today (Vanity)

November 9, 2010 | no dems

[no dems]

The count of the AK Senate Race Absentee Ballots takes place today. Currently, the total Write-in votes exceed Joe Miller's total vote count by 13,500 votes. There are 31,000 Absentee Ballots to be counted today. Absentee Ballots, which contain many military votes, normally go heavily Republican. Lisa Murkowski's name was not on the Absentee Ballot and the people who vote Absentee very seldom do the "Write-in" thing. If they do, it, many times, is not done correctly. So.......

If Joe Miller's lead, after the count of the Absentee Ballots, exceeds the 81,000 Write-in Ballots, which did not all go for Lisa anyway, turn out the lights; the party's over.

[no dems]

Alaskan law clearly states the write-in candidate’s name MUST be spelled correctly, yet the state elections commission says it’s acceptable if it’s close. Has Miller said he’ll challenge this?

I've been wondering the same thing about the "strict interpretation" of the law. But, yes, you better believe that Miller, and his lawyers, will challenge it.

[sharkshooting]

So, let me make sure I have this straight. Worst case scenario Murky leads Miller by 13439. There are 31000 absentee votes (some of which are military). If Miller gets more votes than the total of “write in” then the election is over. No need to count Murky at all, correct?

So,
Murky 83201 +Absentee
Miller 69762 +Absentee

Is this all correct?

[no dems]

Alaskan law clearly states the write-in candidate’s name MUST be spelled correctly,
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

If I was Joe, and they count votes where “Murkowski” is not spelled correctly, with all the bracelets, and the list of names handed out at the polling place, and she wins...I’d go to the Supreme Court of the United States.

[no dems]

Re: You Post #18. I agree. Much fewer.

[CapedConservative]

Analysis

Write-in Ballots are 81,000
Miller votes are 67,500 (trails write-ins by 13,500)
There are 31,000 absentee

Assumption

The Absentee write-ins for MurCokeSki will be approximately equal to the number of true Write-ins that ARE NOT for MurCokeSki, so give her total votes of the 81,000 Write-ins.

Outcome

If Miller captures 44% of the Absentee votes (13,360), that would be enough to push him over the top...

There are only two items of concern. The number of Write-ins that the Princess actually got and the number of Absentee that wrote her in.

CC

[tillacum]

Growing up in AK a handshake sealed a deal and a person’s name was their bond. Evidently lisa spent enough time in DC where honesty and the word means nothing. I wouldn’t trust that woman as far as.....

[EternalVigilance]

Bump. Murkowski still doesn’t have a single vote.

[gov_bean_ counter]

The Great One sliced and diced the Alaska Lt. Gov last night. Clearly the man has his own agenda and is not to be trusted.

[USS Alaska]

Suppose all 31000 absentee ballots go to Miller. Then he goes into the write-in count with a lead of 17500.

If Joe gets all 31,000 absentee ballots, then he can't lose, because with the votes that he already has PLUS 31,000 means that he will have 17,500 MORE votes than the 81,000 ballots that are write in ballots.

[no dems]

I can tell that Math was not your subject in school Marylander. (LOL) I think you’re assuming that Lisa got all 81,000 Write-in Votes and that they are all valid. NO WAY!!! Joe currently has 67,500 votes. Lisa has NONE until the Absentee votes are counted which will probably give Joe another 18,000 votes which would total 85,500 votes for Miller, before they even begin to count the 81,000 Write-in votes; which will NOT all be for Murkie and be valid.

[ShadowAce]

There are 31,000 Absentee Ballots to be counted today.

If Joe Miller's lead, after the count of the Absentee Ballots, exceeds the 81,000 Write-in Ballots,...

How can this happen?

[no dems]

There will be some who voted for Murkie as a write-in on the Absentee Ballots.

[sodpoodle]

Thinking the same thing: Dem getting about 24% of the absentee ballots. Which is 24% less ABs going to Murcowski.

[txhurl]

There are only two items of concern. The number of Write-ins that the Princess actually got and the number of Absentee that wrote her in.

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But murky wasn’t on the absentee ballot! Now what?

[no dems]

Come on ROCKLOBSTER, don’t rain on my parade. LOL!!!

[txhurl]

Does anybody have shots of regular and absentee AK ballots?

[Eye of Unk]

I’ll take a shot at the write-in percentage.

Lisa will get 15%
McAdams will have 3%
Miller will have 25%

Of the remaining most will be tossed for improper spelling and a small amount will be for cartoon characters or a name from the list of the other 120 plus candidates.

The absentee votes will be heavily in Millers favor.

[no dems]

Joe currently has 67,500 votes. Lisa has none as of now. If his Absentee vote total (out of the 31,000 Absentee Ballots) exceeds the 81,000 uncounted write-in ballots, then it’s over. Don’t know how to make it any more clear.

[no dems]

Ref. your Post #54: The she gets no votes unless an Absentee Voter wrote her name in.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Because he’s only down by 13,500 to ‘write-in’. If he passes ‘write-in’ in the total number of votes, he’s the winner.