Posted on 10/31/2010 6:46:20 PM PDT by kristinn
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
SNIP
Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
in the House. Unbelievable.
‘But, if Congressional sessions were limited to 180 days...’
I love it - what would it take? Would it take a Constitutional amendment or simply a procedural move, or some federal law? In any case, such a law would probably not be passed until after the RATs lose the WH.
Good thoughts. I’ve not heard federal session limits discussed.
“Of the 6 safe D Senators which do you think will lose? I think you need 2 of the 6 in order to get to 15”
I’ve been hearing more about Wyden losing in OR in the past week or so...
Yes, we need to get out and vote! I have told all my children and grandchildren that. “if you haven’n voted by noon I will be coming to take you to the polls.”
the decline of the obottoman empire !
“In particular, a significant proportion of the Democrat votes will be packed into those fifty-or-so minority-majority districts that Democrat gerrymanderers (and the courts) are so proud of.”
A significant portion of the Republican votes will also be cast in very safe Republican districts. My vote was (already voted) one of them. The Democrat in my district had no chance, even in 2008. If I lived one-half a block away, I could have voted against Socialist Lloyd Doggett (which would have given me great pleasure), who is a very safe Democrat (I hope he loses, but it seems impossible).
All the safe districts on both sides makes me very leery of these predictions that convert likely voter percentages to number of seats without looking at individual races.
All I know for sure is that every conservative needs to vote. No room for cockiness.
Also, I hope we don’t rub it in too much if conservatives do really well on Tuesday. Just remember how sick at heart we felt two years ago when a socialist became President. Some of the Democratic voters are very good people-misguided and slow to learn, but good nonetheless-who will be just as heartsick as we were.
Our senators don’t have the will. Too many dealmakers still on board. As long as McCain and his ilk are still around, zero will get a lot of what he wants. It’ll be up to the House to hold the line.
“Ive projected Republicans picking up an additional 129 seats.”
If you are right, you certainly can win some money from me.
“After every election, the party that wins says the other party is dead. These results signal that well be in power until the end of time Then they govern, and the people dont like them, and they get wiped out in 2 years,”
++++++++++++++++++++++
Pubbies took over the House in 1994 for the first time in 40 years or so...and then it flipped 12 years later to the RATs and if all holds as promised it will have only been 4 years for the RATs. If the GOP listens to us, they can hold the House for longer than 4 years, imho. If they don’t, the idiotic part of the public will ‘give the Democrats a chance’ as if they can be trusted.
Really, it comes down to whether the Republicans will listen to its base and the independents that will restrain and repudiate obummer in 2 days.
The people are saying - ‘we want LESS government and we want JOBS!’ So Republican Party - will you actually do what’s in your charter/mission statements and will you listen to the American people??
Oregon has been considered safe for a while.
The others are New York, New York, Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont.
Did you mean “whenMoran loses”?
‘Yes, we need to get out and vote! I have told all my children and grandchildren that. if you havenn voted by noon I will be coming to take you to the polls.’
I hope they all vote Conservative/GOP - and if any of them don’t, take them out to dinner and have a good talking to them, til the polls close...father to son, grandpa to grandchild...;)
“This is the year to get rid of McCain!”
Are you suggesting a vote for the Democrat?
I like the idea of limited sessions except that it would make Reps. more captive to their full-time staffers who would constitute even more of a shadow govt. than they already do. Yes, Reps. would likely spend more time in their districts, but their DC operations would continue developing the same kinds of b.s. as now.... unless maybe staffs could be cut back and allocated in larger proportion to in-state positions. i.e., each Rep. could have only a very few staffers based in DC (currently they have around 20 plus all of the committee bureaucracies). If each Rep. had to rely upon staffs which were largely based in the home district rather than in DC then the idea might have more of a chance to be effective.....
“All the safe districts on both sides makes me very leery of these predictions that convert likely voter percentages to number of seats without looking at individual races.”
Many times we’re not getting accurate advance polling in these districts. We have to then look at internal polling or push polling to try to figure out what might happen.
Well Tuesday we’ll know, huh?
The Gallup piece, especially the last two paragraphs, does read like a NWS storm prediction with phrases like "historical model suggests," "this scenario is highly probable," and "projections have moved into uncharted territory."
If we win big in the House as indicators point to, 2012 will be only 2 years away, and more House, Senate and White House cleaning will be done. I think obuMAO is a lame duck prez - legitimate or illegitimate.
"Safe" districts for Republicans tend to be reliably 60-40 districts, while "safe" districts for Democrats tend to be 90-10.
All the action will be in the remaining districts -- and, if the edge nationally is 55-40, it's going to be even better for Republicans in the swing districts.
BEST ONE EVER!!!!
ahahahahahahaha
I'm gonna steal it -
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