Posted on 09/28/2010 7:26:28 AM PDT by Ravi
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Consumer confidence in the economy remains "quite grim," with a monthly gauge falling to 48.5 in September, hitting the lowest level since February, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. "September's pull-back in confidence was due to less favorable business and labor market conditions, coupled with a more pessimistic short-term outlook," said Lynn Franco, director of Conference Board's consumer research center, in a statement. "With so few expecting conditions to improve in the near term, the pace of economic growth is not likely to pick up in the coming months." Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a September level of 51.5. Confidence for August was downwardly revised to 53.2 from a prior reading of 53.5. A barometer on consumers' expectations dropped to 65.4 in September - also hitting the lowest level since February -- from 72 in August. Consumers' assessment of current conditions fell to 23.1 - also the lowest since February -- from 24.9.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
That magic word is missing for once. Now if I take a drink I look like a lush instead of a fun loving person playing the "Unexpected" game.
My confidence in Zero is 0.
It’s not just falling consumer confidence...it’s also falling stock market volume.
The “little guy” investors are gone from the stock market just as the “little guy” consumers are fleeing from retail malls.
Or put another way, or economy is precarious. The economy is much weaker today than it was in 2006.
Much.
Much weaker.
Dominoes could cascade at any moment into a global deflationary collapse.
After hearing cuts of Zero speak, I got much more confident in Wild Turkey last night as a consumer. I am confident we can undermine him in the Congress...And I am confident Austin Nichols can make more if necessary.
Market volume is very light from what I’ve read. I guess this won’t be well received by the brokerage houses.
The markets have become less and less of a barometer of the economy. Almost all equities are being traded by the institutional players. The bond market is all screwed up because of the quantitative easing. Now we are seeing increased merger and acquisition activity.
The M&A activity is significant because it shows that business is not looking to expand by hiring. They are looking to expand by buying related companies cutting staff and increasing productivity.
The brokerage houses have been trying to put a smiley face on things, but the consumers see reality.
Remember the bad old days of the Bush era when this was in the high 70’s and low 80’s?
Well, one hing is for sure the DOW will predictably rise on that “good” news.
I have no confidence - none, nada, zip, zero - in anything the Obama administration does.
Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 48.5,
down from a revised 53.2 in August. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting 52.5.
The reading marked the lowest point since February’s 46.4.
It takes a reading of 90 to indicate a healthy economy.
Hence the talk of QE 2.0.
The Fed cannot find their plush posterior with either or both hands. They’re now walking into a full-on repeat of what Fisher warned about in 1935.
You are correct. “Organic” volume is very, very light.
Most of the “volume” you see out there is from algo’s and HFT boxes passing the same shares back and forth. Less than 100 stocks make up the vast majority of volume on the NYSE.
Under the surface, things do not look like a healthy market. Correlations are high, volume is low, fund flows are negative, yet the market indexes continue to work higher.
At some point, something’s gonna give.
Let’s expand upon your point above that “fund flows are negative.”
401k’s are experiencing record “Emergency” withdrawals right now.
Mutual Funds are experiencing net cash outflows (Boomers need retirement money).
Soveriegn Wealth Funds are investing in sovereign bonds and gold.
Yup. Fund flows are negative...on a scale never before seen.
Which begs a very important question:
Where is the money (and demand) originating from that is propelling the indexes higher?
D’Souza was talking about the old saying “the mother who rocks the cradle, rules the world” regarding the working age populations and educated working age cadre coming up in the developing world.
Summers of Recovery is over now that Larry is leaving to go back to HAAVAARD, Rahm to Chicccaago, and AXELRosed to Campaign 2012 after making some cash.
Now the Fall of Consumer Confidence, makes you wonder what these people on Wall Street that have been bashed ever day by Obama but many are really part of his team have been doing this month.
Gold is going thru the roof but stocks are up 7%, never seen that before. Low interest rates and real estate has scared investors into them that’s my take.
Bernanke and Goldman Sachs. That's it.
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