The Key House Races 2010 - 24 July Update - Big Republican Gains

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 24 July 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

Georgia Primary: Austin Scott won the GA-08 primary and will be the GOP nominee running against the incumbent Dem Jim Marshall in November.

The REALLY BIG NEWS is that  were 44 changes in our "Expert" ratings this week. We had major changes by Rothenberg,  a few by Election Projection (as usual), 4 from the mostly quiet Real Clear Politics and a few from Cook. Sabato and CQPolitics were silent this week. 

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 37 were favorable to the Republicans
• 7 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.288 from last weeks -.353. That's the most favorable value of our index by far and is the largest change that we have recorded in a single week. This is due primarily to the large number of changes by Rothenberg in favor of the Republicans. The -.288 value means that the average rating of our "Experts" for the 91 races on our list is TOSS-UP but leaning D. If the value of the index gets into positive territory then we will have a Republican landslide in November. And remember, this index started out at -.585 back in April. That was a LEANS D average. Since then the trend has been a continuous re-evaluation by our "Experts' in favor of the Republicans. We expect that trend to continue.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Just a reminder: Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:

August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Louisiana

Here is the chart from our EXPERTS page for July 24th. Lots of RED in 4 of the 6 Experts columns. Those are the ones that have changed this week in favor of the Republicans.

District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
AL	2	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	-1	0	0	AL	2
AR	1	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	1	0	0	0	AR	1
AR	2	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	1	1	2	1	2	1	AR	2
AZ	1	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	0	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	AZ	1
AZ	5	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	AZ	5
AZ	8	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	AZ	8
CA	3	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	1	1	2	CA	3
CA	11	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	CA	11
CA	47	Likely D	-2.5	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	CA	47
CO	3	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	-1	CO	3
CO	4	Leans R	0.7	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Likely R	Leans R	0	0	1	0	2	1	CO	4
CT	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-2	-3	-1	CT	4
CT	5	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	CT	5
DE	AL	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	DE	AL
FL	2	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	0	FL	2
FL	8	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	FL	8
FL	12	Likely R	2.5	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	2	2	3	2	3	3	FL	12
FL	22	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	FL	22
FL	24	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	1	0	FL	24
FL	25	Leans R	1.5	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	1	2	FL	25
GA	8	Likely D	-2.0	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Leans D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-1	-2	GA	8
HI	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Leans D	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	-1	0	1	0	0	-1	HI	1
IA	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	IA	3
ID	1	Leans D	-0.8	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	0	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	ID	1
IL	8	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Toss-Up	Leans D	-2	-3	-3	-2	0	-1	IL	8
IL	10	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	IL	10
IL	11	Toss-Up	-0.2	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	-1	-1	1	-1	0	1	IL	11
IL	14	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	0	0	-1	0	0	-1	IL	14
IN	2	Leans D	-1.2	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	IN	2
IN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	1	0	1	IN	8
IN	9	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	IN	9
KS	3	Leans R	0.7	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	0	0	1	1	1	1	KS	3
LA	2	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Likely D	-1	-2	-1	0	-2	-2	LA	2
LA	3	Likely R	1.7	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	2	2	LA	3
MA	10	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	1	-1	-2	0	MA	10
MD	1	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	MD	1
MI	1	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	MI	1
MI	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	MI	7
MI	9	Likely D	-1.8	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-1	-2	-2	-2	-3	-1	MI	9
MN	1	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	MN	1
MN	6	Likely R	2.3	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	2	2	3	2	3	2	MN	6
MO	4	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	MO	4
MS	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	MS	1
NC	8	Toss-Up	-0.5	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Leans R	0	-1	-1	0	-2	1	NC	8
ND	AL	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	ND	AL
NE	2	Likely R	2.0	Likely R	Likely R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	2	2	2	2	2	2	NE	2
NH	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	1
NH	2	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	2
NJ	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	NJ	3
NM	1	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-1	-1	-1	NM	1
NM	2	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	NM	2
NV	3	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	NV	3
NY	1	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	NY	1
NY	13	Leans D	-1.5	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	0	NY	13
NY	19	Leans D	-0.8	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	0	0	NY	19
NY	20	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	-1	NY	20
NY	23	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	NY	23
NY	24	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	NY	24
NY	25	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	NY	25
NY	29	Leans R	1.2	Leans R	Toss-Up	Mod R	Leans R	Likely R	Leans R	1	0	2	1	2	1	NY	29
OH	1	Leans R	0.8	Leans R	Toss-Up	Mod R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	2	0	1	1	OH	1
OH	2	Safe R	2.8	Safe R	Safe R	Mod R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	3	3	2	3	3	3	OH	2
OH	13	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	OH	13
OH	15	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	OH	15
OH	16	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	1	OH	16
OH	18	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	OH	18
PA	3	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	PA	3
PA	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	PA	4
PA	6	Likely R	1.7	Likely R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R	2	1	2	2	2	1	PA	6
PA	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	PA	7
PA	8	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	0	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	8
PA	10	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-2	-2	-1	PA	10
PA	11	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	PA	11
PA	12	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	12
PA	17	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	PA	17
SC	5	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	0	0	0	SC	5
SD	AL	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	-1	0	1	SD	AL
TN	4	Likely D	-2.2	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-2	-1	TN	4
TN	6	Likely R	2.2	Leans R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	3	3	2	2	2	TN	6
TN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	TN	8
TX	17	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	TX	17
TX	23	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	-1	TX	23
VA	2	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	VA	2
VA	5	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Mod R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	2	0	0	1	VA	5
VA	9	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-2	-1	-1	0	VA	9
VA	11	Leans D	-1.2	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	VA	11
WA	3	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	WA	3
WA	8	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Leans R	1	1	2	2	1	1	WA	8
WI	7	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	0	0	WI	7
WI	8	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	-2	-1	-1	-1	-2	-1	WI	8
WV	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	-1	0	0	0	WV	1
District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
Average		Toss-Up	-0.288	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up
Updated		24-Jul-10		-0.411	-0.611	-0.100	-0.367	-0.389	0.144
Rating and Color Code			Average Expert
			Rating
			From	To
Safe D			-3	-2.5
Likely D			-2.5	-1.5
Leans D			-1.5	-0.5
Toss-Up			-0.5	0
Toss-Up			0	0.5
Leans R			0.5	1.5
Likely R			1.5	2.5
Safe R			2.5	3.5

[InterceptPoint]

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

[InterceptPoint]

Another Ping:

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.

[God luvs America]

great news!!!

c'mon NYers....lets get out there and work for the candidates who have a chance!!! We must take at least three seats and work hard to grab four...it can be done!!!  I will be working w/the Hayworth campaign (NY19- not even my district but she's gotta be the incumbent rat)....pick a close contest and volunteer some effort for that candidate...

[InterceptPoint]

One More Ping:

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.

[Big Horn]

Let us not get over confidante. I hope the Dems get their butt kicked so bad this fall than some of them will leave their kneeling pads home when going to see the wimp in chief.

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

What’s up with NY25? The murmurs are that it can be a GOP pick up. I cannot find and polls for this race. You got anything?

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[InterceptPoint]

What’s up with NY25? The murmurs are that it can be a GOP pick up. I cannot find and polls for this race. You got anything?

Right now our "Experts" are not looking very favorably at NY-25 but we have seen no polling yet. Typically the "Experts" will revise their opinions on a race after they see a couple of polls that look like a trend and appear to be legit. Polls by the candidates are always worth questioning but in many cases that is all we get to see at least early on in the election cycle. If the NY-25 race is really competitive it will show up in the polling.

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Thanks, I'll be keeping and eye on that one now. It was off my radar, but recently popped up, here on FR so I made a few tweets and googles and got nothing substantial. It could be an interesting one, i need to look at historical and demography a bit.

See ya on the next ping.

[unkus]

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

---

Thanks for the good info.

[MontaniSemperLiberi]

For the second time, please take me off this ping list I never asked to be on.

One more ping from you and I can only assume that you are trolling.

[Vinnie]

Oh me of little faith.

The repubs have a way of snatching defeat from the hands of victory.

As an example..Elaine Marshall D,( an old bat BTW) is running against the incumbent Senator Richard Burr R. here in NC.

For at least a month she has been running TV spots tying Burr to Big Oil/BP/ oil spill. Very effective IMHO.

Burr has yet to run any ads let alone a rebuttal.
By the time he gets around to it , it will be too late. People will have made up their minds.

I think Burr is going down this election.

[kevao]

The repubs have a way of snatching defeat from the hands of victory.

You said it.

This year they have an ideal opportunity to nationalize the election. Far, far more ideal than even 1994. What with all the *very* unpopular polices of the regime -- stimulus, takeovers, health care, financial reform, Arizona lawsuit....

Yet, I see no indication that they plan to nationalize the election. Hopefully I'm wrong on this.

[SeattleBruce]

Thanks InterceptPoint for the excellent compilation and efforts. We all need to get as involved as we can in these critical House races!

If you ask me - WA 1 is IN PLAY:

http://www.redstate.com/bot2495/2010/07/13/meet-james-watkins/

Look at those numbers - Indies supporting James Watkins by 35% in mid July - those numbers will continue to trend. I think Watkins has a SERIOUS shot here.

http://www.watkinsforcongress.com/

[Kahuna]

Thanks for the good work and good news I.P.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30

Here is the cumulative probability distribution of the simulation:

On the Senate side, there was little movement in the Rasmussen polls this week. Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

• California 1: No change (R -7%)
• Colorado 2: No change (R +5%)
• Florida 1: No change (R +2)
• Illinois 2: No change (R -1%)
• Kentucky 1: +1% (R +8%)
• Missouri 1: No change (R +2%)
• Nevada 2: No change (R +2)
• Ohio 2: +2% (R +6%)
• Pennsylvania 2: +1% (R +7%)
• Washington 2: No change (R +3%)
• Wisconsin 1: No change (R +1%)

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (41), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
17-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7
24-Jul-10	47	48.95	50	7.69%	7

-PJ

[InterceptPoint]

For the second time, please take me off this ping list I never asked to be on.

One more ping from you and I can only assume that you are trolling.

Trust me. We're not trolling. We just missed your request. Sorry about that.