Posted on 07/16/2010 6:16:02 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
U.S. SENATE RACE: Reid takes lead on Angle
New poll shows Republican losing support among every voter group
By LAURA MYERS © 2010 LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL More Info
* Elections * Opinion Polls * Politics
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Harry Reid Senator ahead outside of margin of error
U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as "too extreme," according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The Democratic incumbent's aggressive strategy of attacking Angle's staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group -- from men and women to both political parties and independents -- in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.
Most Popular Stories
1. Man shot in head at pharmacy parking lot 2. End of obituary blasts senator 3. Nevada lawmakers call for new level of jobless benefits 4. Police investigate bomb threat at Regional Justice Center 5. 'The Boss' showed he was good sport 6. Firefighters battle another blaze at downtown commercial building 7. Bikinis in Moscow: Europe wilts in heat wave 8. Authorities say Las Vegas man, 84, duped patients in medical fraud case 9. Going green not cheap for NV Energy 10. Dangerous heat coming to valley
"He's had five perfect weeks," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "The race has been all about her, and he's been doing a good job of pounding her."
Yet Coker said it's too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven't jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the "other" or "none of these candidates" columns, the poll showed.
"I wouldn't write her obituary just yet," Coker said, noting it's a long way to November. "Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she's going to be able to start fighting back."
The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose "none of these candidates," and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.
That is the best Reid has done against Angle this year in a series of Mason-Dixon polls. Previously, the two had been locked in a statistical dead heat with Angle finishing just ahead of Reid in February, 44 percent to 42 percent, and in June, 44 percent to 41 percent, and Reid finishing just ahead of Angle in May, 42 percent to 39 percent.
The phone survey, taken Monday through Wednesday of 625 likely voters in Nevada, is the first in which Reid has finished ahead of Angle outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Reid campaign attributed the senator's momentum to its efforts to expose the former Reno assemblywoman's views.
They include allowing young workers to opt out of Social Security and instead open personal retirement accounts, doing away with federal agencies such as the Education Department to cut spending and developing Yucca Mountain into a nuclear reprocessing facility.
"We have always said that as Nevada voters become familiar with Sharron Angle's extreme positions on Social Security, education and Yucca Mountain, they will reject her agenda," Reid campaign spokesman Jon Summers said in a statement. "Nevadans know Senator Reid is working every day to create jobs, keep people in their homes and get our economy back on track."
The Angle campaign -- a mom-and- pop operation that had been piling up debt during the GOP primary -- acknowledged it has been overwhelmed and overmatched by the rapid-fire Reid camp, which has been spending about $1 million a month, including on nonstop ads.
But Angle spokesman Jerry Stacy said the campaign is now capable of battling back after raising nearly as much money as Reid during the latest fundraising quarter that ended June 30: $2.3 million compared with $2.4 million. Angle's campaign now has nearly $1.8 million cash on hand, compared with $9 million cash for Reid, who has raised $19.2 million this election cycle.
"While we were busy raising money, Harry Reid was busy distorting Sharron Angle's record while trying to hide from his own," Stacy said in an interview. "Now it's our turn. Now that we have the money, we're going to be able to run a more effective campaign."
Stacy said that Reid's best hope of winning re-election is to keep the focus on Angle because he is unpopular at home. Also, President Barack Obama and Reid are having difficulty convincing voters that the $787 billion stimulus bill and industry bailouts are working to turn the economy around.
"Harry Reid knows he's in trouble, and he can't build himself up," Stacy said. "He can't run on his record and win. People counted Sharron out during the primary, but we proved them wrong. Do not count Sharron Angle out now. What this race is really about is the economy."
Nevada has suffered more than other state during the recession. It has a record unemployment rate of 14 percent, the highest in the nation, and record high home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates.
Angle's first and only TV ad in the general election hits Reid on the economy. Stacy said a second commercial has been cut and will air soon, also taking Reid to task for Nevada's dismal standing, becoming the hardest-hit state in the nation during the Senate leader's watch.
But Reid is starting to go toe-to-toe with Angle on economic issues, both by attacking her in TV and radio ads and by having Obama come to Nevada as he did last week to promote Reid and the Democrats' moves to create new jobs and spur private business development.
While Reid helped save the $8.5 billion CityCenter project on the Strip by pressuring banks to continue funding it, Angle has said she would not have interfered, something the senator's campaign points out in its attack ads. Reid also has a positive ad promoting his CityCenter role.
Angle and other fiscally conservative Republicans argue that private enterprises should fail or succeed on their own and government shouldn't choose which industries are "too big to fail."
Since last month, Reid's campaign has managed to make Angle nearly as unpopular as Reid.
According to the latest Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Reid and 37 percent have a favorable view of him now. That compares with 52 percent to 35 percent in June.
Angle's unfavorable rating, meanwhile, jumped by double digits -- from 25 percent in early June to 43 percent now -- while her favorable rating is now 33 percent compared with 38 percent last month.
"I was surprised how quickly and how effectively the Reid campaign came out against her after the primary," said Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I think Angle got caught off guard. Harry Reid didn't give her any breathing time, so she got defined as 'wacky Sharron.' "
As a result, Angle lost support across the board in July compared with early June:
■ Among men, Angle fell from 50 percent support to 41 percent now.
■ Among women, 38 percent to 33 percent.
■ Among Democrats, 12 percent to 8 percent.
■ Among Republicans, 81 percent to 70 percent.
■ Among independents, 41 percent to 35 percent.
■ Among Clark County voters, 37 percent to 32 percent.
■ And among Washoe County voters, 51 percent to 34 percent.
Reid's support ticked up a bit among all those groups except nonpartisans, with his backing holding steady at 37 percent now compared with 37 percent in the June 1-3 survey.
The Democratic incumbent, whose base of support is Southern Nevada, saw his numbers shoot up by double digits in Washoe County -- from 32 percent to 45 percent -- which should jolt Angle, whose base is Northern and rural Nevada, which remains strongly for her and against Reid.
Herzik said the new Mason-Dixon poll findings show how effective Reid's general election strategy has been, and now the question is "how well does Angle respond."
In Angle's previous close elections, Herzik said the grass-roots campaigner has usually finished strong, including when she nearly beat Rep. Dean Heller in 2006 and won the GOP primary this year.
"She needs to come up with a response that levels the playing field," Herzik said. "We've seen that Harry's Part 1 was pretty effective" in his general election campaign. "What is Harry's Part 2? What's the next thing he can use to promote his campaign and really bring down Sharron Angle?"
Social Security doesn't seem to be a winning issue for either camp because voters are so divided on it.
According to the Mason-Dixon poll, 46 percent think that allowing investment in private accounts "is too financially risky" and the current system should be left alone, which endorses Reid's position. But 41 percent agree that young workers should be allowed to "opt out" of Social Security "as long as those who have already paid into the Social Security system receive their benefits as promised," which is what Angle proposes. Another 13 percent were not sure.
Angle has said her focus will be "the economy, the economy, the economy," arguing federal government should create a low-tax, low-regulation, business-friendly environment to create jobs.
Reid's camp seems intent on highlighting his work to bring clean-energy jobs to Nevada and intent on continuing to portray Angle as out of step and out of the mainstream.
Herzik said voters should expect an "October surprise," including some sort of positive economic announcement that Obama and Reid can make to help put him over the top to victory.
In the end, Reid himself has long said he doesn't need to raise his support too much higher to win because voters will face nine choices on the splintered ballot: Reid, Angle, four nonpartisan candidates, one Independent American Party contender, one Tea Party of Nevada candidate and "none."
Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919.
We can’t afford to drop the ball. This is not just for a politician this is to take our country back.
I believe that Nevada would vote for a Jackalope if it was running against Dingy Harry right now.
Angle raised little money during the primary. Mark Levin used his radio show to urge his listeners to donate to Angle. Plus Tea Party Express & Freedom Works (Dick Armey’s Tea Party group) dumped millions for Angle. Thus enabling for Angle to win the primary.
Also Sue Lowden said, “With the high cost of ObamaCare, we’ll need to barber chickens for healthcare services.” Reid and his allies spend $10 million to slam Lowden for her comment. As a result, Lowden dropped in the polls. When Angle won the primary, Reid supporters jumped for joy.
trust me I made a point of letting it be known I do not want to see her again.
Funny thing is that she was horrified that someone could actually stand up to her and me being me knows how the Uk health care system is as I lived under it so she could not even push her obama care to me.
LOL
hope things are well with you down there, I’m busy her with the kids so I’ll be popping in and out of here now and again
Iagree. Thats why all this poll schmoop is statistical lie.The Dems use it as an election tool. You will hear more about it as Harry TAKES THE LEAD, etc, all crap. And then when Harry looses, the sameidiots cry foul, cheater etc. What a bunch of fascists!We have seen the whole song and dance repeatedly. It was used in Kenya my Obama and Rial Odinga to foment inter tribal genocide.
It is all about money -- if it's spent wisely -- and this is a race that can be won without any sort of miracle. This is also a baldface farcical attempt to gin up numbers in front of the August break so Dingy/McCrisis can go home and claim they've seized the Big Mo...they're all in for a surprise in November and I guarantee you in the quiet moments both of those losers know it.
Right but it's gotta get going, now like this weekend...
"Pat Toomey has a nice start on this with the ads he is running in PA. It already has the usual suspects running off and crying to Obama’s Speech Police."
And this raises a great point -- the candidates pay these Svengali's upwards of 20K a month before the media bill and why isn't Angle's factotum looking at effective ads like Toomey's from every angle (no pun intended) and gleaning the most visceral appeals?!
You'd think (a) it's as simple as best practices -- but we'd all be shocked to know how much of this campaign crap is, even despite focus grouping, produced ad hoc / friend of a friend (Re: Skank & John-boy) / money pit; and (b) you'd also think there'd be a clearinghouse to review/analyze these ads (RCP took a shot at it I think two Pres cycles ago and didn't keep it up). Money to be made for some enterprising sort...
Lowden is a conservative. I didn’t hear much about Tark’s history. Reid’s folks set up a fake conservative political action group and ran ads accusing Lowden of being liberal...some people fell for it. Add that with those on our side who can’t understand why energizing the tea party and energizing potential voters are two different things...and then there are those who dont care about electability at all...
Agreed. The only ones home for the poll were out-of-work, bitter Dems.
That’s right the same silly Americans who laud the AZ immigration law are ready to renominate John McPain. They can’t learn, I tell you.
Another post that came out later pointed out that this pole was skewed in Reid’s favor. They purposefully dropped 8 points in favor of Angle, then went to the public with the tainted results.
So, if this is supposed to be such a “reputable” poll, then why the need for deception?
Excuse me.......I’m gonna go puke now. God save the country.
And they expect the public to swallow this kind of poll propaganda? What a laugh. These idiots are not cute. They are fascists. And in time, everyone will realize it, and the public wrath will be terrible indeed.
Angle should make a case for why people should vote for her. Angry toward Reid alone is not enough; not with ‘none of the above’ option available. People have already known how crook Reid is, but they need reasons to vote for her. The numbers do not show any positive movement toward Reid. They are purely negative movement toward Angle.
You are right! This election is one of the most important events in our 234 year history.
Yeah, well, I agree. But that also was applicable to the Challenger astronauts right before their last re-entry.
I’m worried that the ‘kick the incumbants out’ movement will mostly, if not entirely, affect only Republicans.
Angle has allowed Reid to define her before she had a chance to define herself. That is not a good thing, and difficult to correct once it has been done.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.