Dolly too, you can pretty much take it to the bank when she guarantees it!
Posted on 07/13/2010 6:20:27 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia
President Obama is "guaranteed" to win re-election in 2012, according to Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C. Lichtman's formula predicts the outcome of the popular vote without considering candidate opinion polls, campaign strategies or political events.
Lichtman's system is based on 13 political conditions that he calls "keys." The keys favor the incumbent president's party: When five or fewer of them are false, the incumbent party wins the presidency. If six or more are false, the opposition party wins. In 2007, Lichmann predicted that any Democratic candidate -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama -- would have beaten John McCain.
Only four of the 13 keys (outlined here) are currently in the "false" column for President Obama. Counting against him are the facts that he has not achieved a major foreign policy victory, that his party will lose seats in the House of Representatives, and that per-capita economic growth does not exceed the two previous presidential terms. "True" keys include: there is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination, Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure, and his administration has achieved "major changes in national policy."
Lichtman, who described the keys theory in his 2008 book, "Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President," questions the widespread perception that presidential campaigns are "horse races" influenced by minor events and media coverage.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...
Truman and LBJ would have lost had they run again.
I believe the dumb masses will feel so guilty about the racism in this country that they WILL reelect Obama to double prove they are not racists!””
Here is a comment from a Buffalo NY newspaper. You can add single white women to his list of hardcore supporters.
“barry X, the abandoned b a s t a r d of an illicit union between a deranged, teen aged, communist w h o r e and malcolm X, has his instructions from london to permanently destroy America and her via debt, wreck her economy, euthanize the greatest generation, demoralize her military via homosexuality and exhaust it in a wild goose chase in the “graveyard of empires”. He does hate America, especially White America, and does love his works of treason and destruction. It is through this that all his actions may be understood.
I hope the military honors their oaths, steps up and arrests this a s s h o l e or better. This son of a w h o r e is the walking definition of a “domestic enemy” and we won’t sit still anymore for his treason.
NEVER EVER forget the mainstream media that conspired to foist this muslim nation wrecking b a s t a r d on America is responsible. They intentionally sold us this traitor.
The democratic soviet is comprised of 22% of the population (blacks, latinos, queers, muslims, transgenders, communists, and abortionists) An amalgam of misfits tied together by nothing more than malevolent envy and hate for Natural Law.
This man is actively destroying an America he was raised to hate, is supported by communists in the media and must be neutralized for the good of all. He CANNOT be allowed to appoint one more Supreme Court judge.
If it is civil war the communists want, let’s give it to them and hit their families and spouses first. “
________________________________________
• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
Both of these would be deemed FALSE if 0bama didn’t have such a compliant, fawning media to provide cover to his many failures.
The Sestak and Romanoff job-bribe offers, the DOJ protection of the NBPs’ voter intimidation, along with the unknowns that could emerge from the Blago trial ought to fill the “scandal” bill. Ditto for the surrender on Eastern Euro missile defense and the abject weakness vs. Iran for the “foreign policy failure” piece.
But 0bama needn’t worry. His pet SRM hacks won’t say or do anything to damage their adored and beloved Messiah.
How prescient is this idiot savant. No, one must look at the winner of the Redskin game at home just before the election in the fall of 2012 to divine the winner.
Whistling through the graveyard, methinks...
Colonel, USAFR
The very fact that he does not factor in public perception and opinion completely nullifies his entire formula. Just about any ‘sane scientist/statistician’ will tell you that you always have to consider an ‘X’ factor when doing predictions. The ‘X’ factor is an unknown, a moving variable that has potential to greatly influence the static values. This guys says Barry has a plus because he’s ‘not presided over a major foreign policy failure’. Well, a lot of people consider his handling of Israel a major failure. There’s not major competition for the Dem nomination? Dude, it’s 2010, we’re still two years away from the elections, of course there’s not going to be any competition at this point.
Dolly too, you can pretty much take it to the bank when she guarantees it!
“Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure”
ALL of his foreign policy is a failure.
That’s the one that caught my eye as well. His interpersonal failures with foreign bigwigs (other than the Nobel people) form an unbroken string.
Colonel, USAFR
Unfortunately....Obama came with one of these....
He forgot massive voter fraud and the ignorance of the average voter.
Daddy Bush lost because Ross Perot split the vote and gave us Slick Willie..
Mclame took a dive because soros said so.
So did he call the 1992 race correctly? How about the 1980 race? The 2004 race? Or is 2012 the first one he’s covering?
What’s the point of 12 and 13? They just cancel each other out. That leads one to question his methodology, also many of these answers depends on who you ask.
Epic Fail.
One of his “keys” ought to be creating domestic turmoil like suing one of his states.
How does he know for sure that the 2012 GOP nominee will not be charismatic (Palin) or a national hero (Petraeus)?
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