Posted on 07/03/2010 9:53:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
It's clearly half-time in the Primary Season and a Holiday Weekend to boot so we have naturally had a slow news week for the House Races. But we can report that Election Projection still sees a movement in the Dems favor that seems to be escaping the rest of the civilized world who see quite the opposite. As a result, our Index has been sent just a bit in the wrong direction - from last weeks -.353 to this weeks -.357. That's not much but it is due entirely to changes that Election Projection made in a few of the Key House Races.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Note that you can always see the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.
We report, you decide.
Worth Noting: The runnoff election between Martha Roby and Rick Barber for the Republican nomination for Alabama's 2nd District will be held on July 13th, a week from next Tuesday. You folks in that district need to get out and vote for your favorite.
A week later on Tuesday July 20th Georgia will be holding their primary. We have Georgia's District 8 on our Key House Races list so we will be watching that one for sure.
We've updated our Master LIst of Key House Races to indicate the Georgia Primary as well as those in early August using our color coding scheme where LIGHT YELLOW indicates upcoming primaries and LIGHT GREEN indicates primaries that have been completed.
Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:
August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri
August 5: Tennessee
August 10: Colorado, Conecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary
August 17: Washington and Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Lousiana
| District | Dem Primary Winner | R-Seats | Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||
| AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | Rick Barber | Runoff 7/13 | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
| AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | ||||
| AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||||
| AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | |||
| CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | ||||
| CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | ||||
| CO | 3 | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | |||
| CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Toss-Up | CO | 4 | ||
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | Rick Torres | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | |||
| CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | Mark Greenberg | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
| FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 2 | ||
| FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | ||
| FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | |
| FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 22 | ||||
| FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | ||
| FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 25 | |
| GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Paul Rish | Angela Hicks | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | ||
| HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | |||
| IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||||
| ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | ||||
| IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||||
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | |||
| IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Leans D | IL | 11 | ||||
| IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | ||||
| IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Leans D | IN | 2 | ||||
| IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | ||||
| IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | ||||
| KS | 3 | Open D (Moore) | Kevin Yoder | Patricia Lightner | KS | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | KS | 3 | |||
| LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | |||
| LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Leans R | LA | 3 | ||
| MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | MD | 1 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D (Stupak) | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Jason Allen | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | ||
| MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Marvin Carlson | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Paul Welday | Anna Janek | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Jim Hagedom | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | |||
| MN | 6 | Dem Primary | Incumbent | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | |||
| MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Bill Stouffer | Vicky Hartzler | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||||
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Leans D | NC | 8 | ||||
| ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | ||||
| NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | |||
| NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | Rich Ashooh | Bob Bestani | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | ||
| NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | John Adler | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | ||||
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | Leans D | NM | 1 | ||||
| NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||||
| NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | ||||
| NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | |||
| NY | 19 | John Hall | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | |||
| NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 20 | ||||
| NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | |||
| NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||||
| NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | ||||
| NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||||
| OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Safe R | OH | 2 | |||
| OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | ||||
| OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | ||||
| OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 16 | ||||
| OH | 18 | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | ||||
| PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 3 | ||||
| PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 4 | ||||
| PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | |||
| PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||||
| PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | ||||
| PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | ||||
| PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | ||||
| PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 12 | ||||
| PA | 17 | Tim Holden | David Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||||
| SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | Leans D | SC | 5 | ||||
| SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SD | AL | ||||
| TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | ||
| TN | 6 | Open D (Gordon) | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | ||
| TN | 8 | Open D (Tanner) | Stephen Fincher | George Finn | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | |||
| TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | ||||
| TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | ||||
| VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | ||||
| VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | ||||
| VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | ||||
| VA | 11 | Gerald Connelly | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||||
| WA | 3 | Open D (Baird) | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Dem Primary | Incumbent | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | |||
| WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | |||
| WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | ||||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List | -0.357 | ||||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||
| Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary | ||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||
| Open Dem Seat | ||||||||||||
| Updated | 3-Jul-10 | |||||||||||
| Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | |||||||||||
| From | To | |||||||||||
| Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | ||||||||||
| Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||||
| Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||||
| Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||
| Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||||||||||
| Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | ||||||||||
| Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 | ||||||||||
ct-4, Merkle is main challenger to Debicella, i am almost certain.
BTTT
Please add TN-3 to the list...
We need Tim Gobble (R) to win..,
He’s running for Zach Wamps seat..
Zach is running for TN Gov..
Please remove me from this SPAM list.
Oops. Sorry we got you on our list. Must have been a mistake.
GO ahead and remove me as well. I simply have never been able to make any sense out of the charts.
I think Rasmussen has TX-17 leans R. Bill Flores is a good candidate who is likely to win.
Keep an eye on IL-9 ... Joel Pollak is mounting a credible assault on Jan Schakowsky.
thanks for the ping IP
We are very encouraged here in NY20
Our candidate Chris Gibson exceeded his June 30 fundraising challenge, so now the RNCC should be moving him up on their Young Guns list ... which would enable him to secure some national funding.
FReepers, please take a look at a true & humble patriot
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
~Kate
Thanks for the ping!
Wow. Lotta work.
Thanks for the bump. Rothenberg said he will have a massive update on or about the 15th of August.
Oh come on now! the RNC, Steele along with the leaders of both houses are strong, principled and ready to fight!
s/
Fascinating, after 7/4 and Labor Day, things will become much clearer.
What I would like to see is Voter Intensity comparisons?
Thanks for the ping InterceptPoint.
The lady in the run-off with Rick Barber in AL-2 is a nice Conservative lady, but, this ex-Marine has fire in his belly. That’s what we need in Washington. Check out his fire-breathing campaign videos “Gather Your Armies” and “Ground Zero Mosque”. They are only 1 minute but they are the gutsiest ads you’ve ever seen.
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