Posted on 06/15/2010 6:24:11 AM PDT by DM1
...... So how vulnerable does this make Etheridge? We at RealClearPolitics currently have the race rated as Likely Democrat. ....
Etheridge is also doing well in the fundraising race. According the the FEC he has over $1 million cash on hand; his opponent, Renee Ellmers, has $5,462. In addition, Ellmers isn't exactly a typical high-quality candidate: She's a nurse and county Chamber of Commerce President.
But there are some countervailing pressures on Etheridge. Ellmers will almost certainly improve her fundraising based upon this viral video, and may be able to put together a more competitive race.
More to the point, Etheridge has generally thrived in the district by compiling a centrist voting record. This has placed him more in line with the state Democrats, who perform well in the district, than with the national Democrats, whose track record is more problematic.
This time around, however, Etheridge has generally voted the national Democratic line. He voted for the stimulus package, for "cap and trade" legislation, and for the healthcare bill (which one pollster found only 37% of Etheridge's constituents favored and 53% opposed). This was probably prompted in part by the weakness of his opponent. But if the cash flows into Ellmers' coffers, this could prove to be a miscalculation on Etheridge's part.
The district's fundamentals and Etheridge's fundraising advantage still give him a significant advantage in the fall. But now there is a pretty clear scenario to see how he loses. This really was somewhere in between "safe" and "likely" Democrat before; it is now probably somewhere between "likely" and "leans" Democrat. Hopefully we'll get some polling soon to better sort this out; if not, we'll have some updated financial information in about a month.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com ...
Why hasn’t this guy been arrested for assault.
That’s what I am wondering.
No wonder he was defensive (also offensive).
Post a few polite young people outside his local office with signs asking “WHO ARE YOU?”.
Because he is a democrat.
Assault, battery, menacing, illegal restraint....
As someone was saying, though, watch for him soon, after the initial news of this has blown over to play the "spend more time with his family" card and bail out so another one can take his place.
I guess that means she's not a professional pol.
She is actually a very attractive candidate. She is going to get national exposure now as this story plays out.
As an afterthought, the response to “who are you” should have been “one of your employers”!
He has NOTHING to worry about. Safe race for the RATS.
His Republican opponent is a whiney, snivelling, handwring old school Republican.
Perhaps that she isn’t politically connected. She strikes me as an amateur candidate. Earnest, but not polished in any sense and having no particular power base from which to campaign.
He’s in the dictionary under arrogance.
“...Ellmers isn’t exactly a typical high-quality candidate: She’s a nurse and county Chamber of Commerce President...”
What exactly is a “high quality” candidate?????
He’s under great stress from some source. Seems ready to snap. Wonder what is stressing him so much.
thats too bad this arrogant POS deserves to lose handily
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