Posted on 04/25/2010 11:36:45 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
If Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination in 2012 — and I’ve been on record for some time as predicting that she will — what are likely to be her best and worst states? And how do these strengths and weaknesses square with the Republican primary calendar? And what about the other likely candidates?
The first, very, important thing to notice is that the Republican primary calendar will be different in 2012 than it was two years ago. Although this could change as states jockey for position and rules are amended, for the time being the Republicans have divided the states into five groupings, seen below:
The first states to vote are the traditional early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. These states are shown in light blue. Note that this list does not include Florida and Michigan, which jumped in the queue to try to vote early in 2008 — although who knows whether they’ll be in a more cooperative mood this time around when push comes to shove.
Next to vote are the orange states, which are grouped together by virtue of their small populations. This includes 14 states and several territories, the largest grouping of which is on the prairies and the Western frontier, although there are also several New England states. Notably, no Southern states vote in this group — the Republican calender definitely de-emphasizes the South.
Finally, there are gold, purple and green groupings of some of the larger states. [snip] The order in which the gold, purple and green states vote will rotate every cycle and, to my knowledge, has not yet been determined for 2012.
So where is Palin likely to run strongest?
[See Chart and the Rest of the Article by clicking the link in Comment 1 below]
(Excerpt) Read more at politicaldog101.com ...
Here is the link:
So far all I see is a re-run of the 2008 candidate list.
Ping!
Interesting article by a lib who takes Palin seriously. This was written pre_ObamaCare and overstates Romney’s strength, but it is an interesting anaylsis of the primary strategy that she might employ.
First step....
Dump Michael (blacks-have-NO-REASON-to-vote-GOP) Steele
Second Step....
Draft Sarah Palin for RNC Chairman!
“So far all I see is a re-run of the 2008 candidate list.”
Me too, sigh.
Sarah’s the only one with enough spine to call the Kenyan out... on Socialism, Wright, Ayers, etc.
The other retreads (Mitt, Huck, Newt) are too PC.
Aye. Palin has the most testicular fortitude.
LOL. Good sleuthing.
My personal belief is that Huck will not run. If I'm right this means, if Sarah goes for it, that the big question is who the establishment can coerce to be the "Phil Crane" of 2012 and split the conservative vote to allow Romney to get the nomination.
Despite the disastrous Reagan campaign leadership of John Sears in early 1980, Reagan would have still won Iowa if it hadn't been for the 7% of votes pulled in by Crane. Reagan never forgave Crane, either. He was the only one of the GOP candidates that wasn't even allowed to speak at the convention.
If Sarah doesn't run, it will be a RINO free-for-all most likely. I don't see any conservatives that the base will be able to coalesce around. There simply isn't the time and Mittens will have his organization making a full-court press with the voters that he is the real conservative in the race. Actually, as I sit here typing this, I'm thinking Romney may be unstoppable if Palin stays out of it. JMO.
It looks likes the writer lifted the work posted at wiki.
I should say, “some of the work” posted at wiki.
We all get our sources from somewhere and from others.
“My personal belief is that Huck will not run. If I’m right this means, if Sarah goes for it, that the big question is who the establishment can coerce to be the “Phil Crane” of 2012 and split the conservative vote to allow Romney to get the nomination.”
Crane could not do it. I don’t see anyone else on the horizon who could. Pence, Demint? Why would they? They probably don’t really think they can win and carrying water for a guy like Romney with a boxcar full of baggage is very risky if the nominee (and the new President) turns out to be Palin.
I don’t know about Huck. I don’t think he has as much appeal as he did last time when he got in early and, for a long time, was the only social conservative in the mix. He built up quite a following as the “not Romney”, but he could never break out with econ conservatives because of his own big government high tax policies in Arkansas. He skipped N.H. McCain really clinched the nomination by South Carolina, so his record did not get the full airing it would get if he started now. Not only would he be savaged by Cato and econ libertarians, but his 1000 pardons, Wayne Dumond and the recent Maurice Clemmons 4 cop killing would deflate his support in the South.
I think it will come down to Palin and Romney, with a few conservative pygmies trying to split the vote. I think it is a very safe bet that Pallin will win in Iowa (where the GOP electorate is very conservative) and in South Carolina, even if Huck runs (Just like Connally was not able to beat Reagan there, neither will Huck beat her there.)
I also think she will do at least well enough in N.H. to keep the momentum from Iowa going into S.C. In fact, Mittens’ crash and burn on health care and the hostility of N.H. voters to tax increases may propel her to victory there, at which point the race will effectively be over.
All in all, as I have said before, the nomination is hers if she wants it.
It's Palin v. Romney IMO. The traders at intrade certainly believe that, FWIW. Palin will run if she believes she can win and beat Obama. I think she'll run.
The only one somewhat immune to the RNC born, Beltway-bred disease of "we can't just speak the plain truth about these commie filth, we might sound extremist..." might be Huckabee, but he's already proven his ability to lose the GOP primary, against a piece of lukelib milquetoast like John McCain.
Just as, like it or not, America is the world's one remaining superpower, the GOP has only one megastar capable of energizing the conservative base like nobody since Reagan. Even more important, we have only one potential candidate who can draw manic mega-crowds to rival O'Bunga at major campaign stops. This matters, in the brains of the small percentage in the movable middle, who we don't want watching huge O'Bunga crowds and mediocre Republican turnout. Palin is the Energizer Bunny, and the media cannot help but stick a dozen cameras on her at every possible turn.
Those who can be swayed are drawn to the horse that looks like it's winning. That has to be us in 2012, or it'll be the end of The Great Experiment. I have only four words to say to that.
Not on my watch.
;-/
:)
;)
Republicans hate obamacare so much that they will not vote for Romney!
Its the dems and the paid romneybots who keep bring him up!
People hate obamacare, they are not going to vote for romney no matter how much money he has!
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