Job Creation Expected In March As Recovery Builds

WASHINGTON – The economy is likely to have added jobs last month for only the second time since the recession began 27 months ago.

That, economists say, would mark a significant turning point in the recovery. It would mean the worst is over and that more job creation could be on the way in the months ahead. But, it does not mean enough new jobs are being created to bring down the unemployment rate.

The private ADP Report says

he ADP National Employment Report
March 2010 Report
Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from January 2010 to February 2010 was revised down slightly, from a decline of 20,000 to a decline of 24,000.

The March employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008. Yet, the lack of improvement in employment from February to March is consistent with the pause in the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter.

Oh boy. I guess there's another round of acrimonious exchanges between those who cite the establishment (payroll) survey's numbers v. those who point to the household survey's numbers. Fortunately there's no Republican president to buildup vis-à-vis jobs creation this time.

FR saw many an acrimonious exchange a few years ago.

This time the president is a Democrat so Democrats and the state controlled media (SCM, pron'd: SCAM) will tout the household survey's gigantic numbers v. the establishment (payroll) numbers obtained from the survey of 400,000 businesses who actually have paid workers.

For the household survey of 60,000 households the employed "Includes the unincorporated self employed, unpaid family workers, agriculture and related workers, private household workers, and workers absent without pay."

The payroll survey of 400,000 establishments is derived from Unemployment Insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file.

"The payroll [establishment] survey provides a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm wage and salary employment. . . . The household survey provides a broader picture of employment [paid for work or not] including agriculture and the self employed."

The household survey's numbers can be in the hundreds of thousands more than the establishment (payroll) survey's numbers. Thus Democrats and the state controlled media (SCM, pron'd: SCAM) will tout the household survey's gigantic numbers and ignore the more accepted payroll numbers.

WALL STREET JOURNAL * APRIL 2, 2010

Long-Term Unemployed Cloud the Jobs Picture

BY GERALD F. SEIB

New jobs numbers will be released Friday morning, and they are expected to show, at last, some significant job creation. A cheer will go up at the White House at this sign that the long climb out of the recession’s unemployment hole may have begun.

But any cheering will be tempered by nagging concern over an insidious problem lurking within the numbers: the startling number of Americans who have fallen into the ranks of not just the unemployed, but the long-term unemployed.

The rolls of long-term unemployed—defined as those unable to find a job for six months or longer—are swelling because of the peculiar causes and character of this deep recession. The consequences are troubling: The long-term unemployed tend to be especially hard to get back into jobs, and they generate their own set of social problems.

President Barack Obama and his team are particularly worried about the phenomenon, and have set out to find ways to combat it. But they’re finding policy prescriptions limited by politics and money.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell the grim story. The number of long-term unemployed in February rose to more than six million, fully double the number one year earlier.

Just over 40% of Americans out of work now fall into the category of long-term unemployed. More startling, the problem is markedly worse in this recession than even in the deep slide of 1981 and 1982.

During that painful recession, the overall unemployment rates were just as bad as now, but the problem of the long-term unemployed was far less acute. At the peak of the unemployment scourge in 1981 and 1982, the share of jobless Americans classified as long-term was 26%, compared to the 40% today. (The numbers would actually be worse if they included those who have simply dropped out of the work force in frustration.)

Excerpt.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052702303395904575157730903699168.html

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.