Daily Presidential Tracking PollSunday, March 28, 2010: Hussein back to -16 (Bounce gone)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 3-28-2010 | Scott Rasmussen

[OKSooner]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).

The President enjoyed a modest bounce in the polls following the passage of health care legislation last week. However, his Approval Index rating is now back to where it was last Sunday, just before the House voted in favor of his health care plan. All the bouncing of the past week has come among Democrats. There has been virtually no change in the opinions of Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

[Bridesheadfan]

Because the liberals enthusiasm went up when the bill was passed. Now the excitement is already fading, and the poll is going back to how everyone else feels about this guy and the job he is doing.

[mylife]

Franklin Deleno Romanowski?

[purpleporter]

WOW the cross over in the disapproval numbers began just after King Obama said, “I don't know the facts, but the police acted STUPIDLY.”

And he is a law professor?? The independents,moderate democrats that voted for this loser finally realized after that presser that Obama is extremely divisive and a racist to boot!!

[Frantzie]

www.numbersusa.com

Amnesty will be even less popular than ObamaCare. They may not go down that road. Slimy Graham-nesty said it was dead. The GOP will have to just shut down Congress in any way they can.

We will need to tell seniors and baby boomers that if it passes - they can kiss their social security and medicare goodbye.

[AmishDude]

Let me write down the numbers for easy reference:
28% SA
44% SD
47% A
53% D

This will trend down a little bit more. I’m watching the Abyss index, which is A-SD=+3%.

Recently he’s been hovering around +1% for Abyss. He’ll be back there quickly, the disillusionment has only been on the poll for one day.

[Starboard]

LOL. Good post!

[real_patriotic_american]

I’m loving it! We are taking back both the House and Senate in November!!

[Recovering_Democrat]

GOOD NEWS BUMP!

[Hawthorn]

>> Here are my updated 60 day average plots <<

Beautiful graphics, as usual!

By the way, I’ve been experimenting with various regression on the Index — in the form of Rasmussen’s 3-day moving averages as reported. Try this:

Do a scatter diagram of the Index from June 1, 2009, to the present, with date on the horizontal axis and Index value on the vertical axis. Then ask Excel to draw a polynomial regression trend line. The 5th-degree and 6th-degree polynomials give very neat plots.

(I would post to FR, but I don’t yet know (1) how to export from Excel to Photobucket and (2) how then to make FR pick up a Photobucket URL.)

[jersey117]

Good response.

[sijay]

[Well, that’s because they “HAD to pass the bill, so they could find out what’s in it!”]

Well, members of Congress found out enough about the bill to know that they had to exempt themselves from it!

[InterceptPoint]

Here is how I post images:

I plot in Google Docs Spreadsheet.

I build the plots and save each as an image from within Google Docs.

I set up a free account on iNerd.com and upload my images.

On iNerd I preview the image, right click to get view image and copy the URL.

I use that URL to post on FR via the standard image tag:

"<"img src="fill in your URL here">

(but take the quotes off the leading "<")

[spokeshave]

Dead cat bounce on wet cement.

[dalight]

That didn't take long.. and is ahead of the loop.. this makes a possible bottom of perhaps a point or two more lower before the upswing. It is possible the next peak will not get higher than -13 now which is what I expected before.. but depending on how low this trough is you can take that from the next peak.

Chalk this up to the AT&T announcement for which they drew Congressional fire and the growing Dr. shortage story line. If Conservatives pound the Dr. shortage as an inevitable consequence of what the Dems have done, which is is, more points will be scored. Also, the $2000/year Extended Care Tax has surprised the independents who thought they were going to get money for free.

Color the Democrats horrified. Nancy's, Harry's and Obama's promises that the public will love Obamacare once it is passed have fallen flat.

Ultimately this poll hits a wall of the committed leftist radicals who are still pragmatic enough to see this guy as their ride. He loses some from the far left when he doesn't look like he is winning and they will depart again if this seems to be the case and this is why the Administration is talking big plans now that they squeeked this horror through, but this is just another lie.. soon to be exposed. The recess appointments show just how weak Obama is right now with the Senate and Congress as a whole. Nevertheless, the wall is around -23 and will not change unless Obama is defeated in some other signature legislation push, which is why he gave everything to see Obamacare through.

I am sure you are wondering about why -23. That is the max variation we have already seen.. the lowest low in strong approval and the highest high in strong disapproval. These have not occured on the same day yet.

[Hawthorn]

>> I am sure you are wondering about why -23. That is the max variation we have already seen <<

Yep, and it would seem to be a significant “support level,” as a stock market chartist might say.

Ten days ago, the underlying, “true” value of the Index looked to be about -17 or -18. And the margin of error (as that term is commonly used by pollsters, namely, the two-sigma level) looked to be about plus-or-minus seven points.

So with those parameters, the value of -23 was just barely within an expected margin of error.

Bottom Line:

I agree that a move below -23 would definitely confirm the collapse of Big Ø’s recent post-Ramthru bump, although the new low value would need to hold for more than three days before I’d take it to signal an underlying Index value of less than -18.

[OKSooner]

" If Conservatives pound the Dr. shortage as an inevitable consequence of what the Dems have done, which is is, more points will be scored. Also, the $2000/year Extended Care Tax has surprised the independents who thought they were going to get money for free. "

We've all heard of the doctor shortage thing, but can you elucidate on the $2k/yr Extended Care Tax? What's that about?

[dalight]

We've all heard of the doctor shortage thing, but can you elucidate on the $2k/yr Extended Care Tax? What's that about?

New Long Term Care plan included in Obamacare.

[dalight]

I agree that a move below -23 would definitely confirm the collapse of Big Ø’s recent post-Ramthru bump, although the new low value would need to hold for more than three days before I’d take it to signal an underlying Index value of less than -18.

I think you misunderstand what I was saying..

I believe that you could possibly guess the next peak by seeing how far this relative bottom goes below -16. I was saying take each additional point away from -13 and that would be my expectation of the next peak in the cycle.

I was saying that something really significant that would divide the left for Obama's numbers to get much lower than -23.

[dalight]

Well, it returned back to 10. All from increase in the strongly support side and without significant shift of any of the other numbers. This is the new trading range. (-10 to -15) He has to lose support from his base to allow these numbers to go down further, and for the moment they are pleased.

[Hawthorn]

See today’s thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2485307/posts?page=4#4