>> I am sure you are wondering about why -23. That is the max variation we have already seen <<
Yep, and it would seem to be a significant “support level,” as a stock market chartist might say.
Ten days ago, the underlying, “true” value of the Index looked to be about -17 or -18. And the margin of error (as that term is commonly used by pollsters, namely, the two-sigma level) looked to be about plus-or-minus seven points.
So with those parameters, the value of -23 was just barely within an expected margin of error.
Bottom Line:
I agree that a move below -23 would definitely confirm the collapse of Big Ø’s recent post-Ramthru bump, although the new low value would need to hold for more than three days before I’d take it to signal an underlying Index value of less than -18.
I think you misunderstand what I was saying..
I believe that you could possibly guess the next peak by seeing how far this relative bottom goes below -16. I was saying take each additional point away from -13 and that would be my expectation of the next peak in the cycle.
I was saying that something really significant that would divide the left for Obama's numbers to get much lower than -23.
Well, it returned back to 10. All from increase in the strongly support side and without significant shift of any of the other numbers. This is the new trading range. (-10 to -15) He has to lose support from his base to allow these numbers to go down further, and for the moment they are pleased.