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Buffett's Partner: 'It's Over' for U.S. Economy
http://moneynews.com/Headline/munger-buffett-economy-debt/2010/02/22/id/350529?s=al&promo_code=97C7-1 ^
Posted on 02/22/2010 1:13:43 PM PST by cycle of discernment
Buffett's Partner: 'It's Over' for U.S. Economy
Monday, 22 Feb 2010 11:42 AM By: Dan Weil
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffetts longtime business partner in Berkshire Hathaway, warns in a new column that the U.S. economic empire is crumbling before our eyes, thanks to federal debt and poor planning.
In an article penned for Slate.com, Munger uses the form of a parable to explain how Wall Streets love affair with gambling has destroyed Americas Main Street.
The article leads with this headline: Basically, Its Over.
The Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman describes the economic history of Basicland, which happens to match U.S. history.
Early in its history, debt is unknown except for home mortgages and some consumer loans, and people live within their means. Speculation is discouraged, and commodities markets are small and tightly regulated.
Under this rational system, economic growth skips merrily along at a steady 3 percent, Munger explains.
Taxes are limited and pay for only essential services like fire protection, courts, and defense. Most taxes are collected on imports, and government spending matches that tax income. Debt via government bonds is limited.
Then things take a turn for the worse.
The extreme prosperity of Basicland had created a peculiar outcome: As their affluence and leisure time grew, Basicland's citizens more and more whiled away their time in the excitement of casino gambling, Munger writes.
Financial services soon grow to account for too big a portion of the economy, Munger says.
The winnings of the casinos eventually amounted to 25 percent of Basicland's GDP, while 22 percent of all employee earnings in Basicland were paid to persons employed by the casinos, many of whom were engineers needed elsewhere.
Then, a shock: Imported energy costs rise, and low-cost labor competition from abroad appears, Munger writes.
Suddenly Basicland had to come up with 30 percent of its GDP every year, in foreign currency, to pay its creditors, Munger writes.
The U.S. deficit just the gap between spending and income in one year is projected to hit $1.6 trillion in 2010. Total debt is project to exceed 100 percent of GDP starting in 2011.
In the parable, Munger strongly suggests that the United States take seriously the campaign of Reagan-era Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who wants the big banks to cease pretending to be banks if they expect the freedom to trade securities on the side.
He suggested that Basicland should strongly discourage casino gambling, partly through a complete ban on the trading in financial derivatives, and it should encourage former casino employees and former casino patrons to produce and sell items that foreigners were willing to buy, Munger writes.
As the parable ends, none of the politicians listen, and Basicland turned into Sorrowland, Munger concludes.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bhoeconomy; democrats; economy; fourth100day; munger; warrenbuffett
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To: cherry
Black and grey are of equal worth when grey is too little, too late.
81
posted on
02/22/2010 4:43:36 PM PST
by
dr_who
To: justrepublican
Many thanks for identifying the source of this quote for me. I had heard it before somewhere and paraphrased it here, but not knowing to whom it was attributed.
Also -and on a similar line of thought, my wife mentioned to me recently that in her research, most metropolitan areas in the US only have about three days worth of food stuffs available in inventory...any interruption in the distribution systems and poof...chaos!
82
posted on
02/22/2010 5:02:51 PM PST
by
Towed_Jumper
(Stephen Hopkins: Founding Father who had Cerebral Palsy.."My hand trembles, my heart does not.")
To: dennisw
We should never have allowed foreign owned manufacturers to open up factories.I believe that competition produces the best products...and management and companies. Ergo, open the games up to everyone.
BTW, we tax foreign companies on what they earn in the U.S. and they reinvest plenty of their "earnings after taxes" in this country.
That said, I would rather drive a Toyota than a Chrysler or GM product any day.
83
posted on
02/22/2010 5:03:17 PM PST
by
SonOfDarkSkies
(Luke 12:34 -- For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.)
To: pgkdan
Hell the last few Republican Presidents combined don't equal what obama has done in a year!
Don't forget to factor in what Bush's medicare benefit is still costing us each year.
84
posted on
02/22/2010 5:08:31 PM PST
by
dr_who
To: dr_who
The last few Republican presidents have a lousy record on government spending. As a matter of fact, they don't.
During the Bush administration, spending went up, yes. But the deficit steadily declined -- thanks to the Bush tax cuts in his first year.
And, of course, there is NO Republican administration -- nor Republican Congress -- that has a lousier record on government spending (and deficits) than the Obama administration.
Perspective.
85
posted on
02/22/2010 5:29:37 PM PST
by
okie01
(THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance on Parade)
To: SonOfDarkSkies
Japanese have national pride. They would never allow the reverse. As far as taxes foreign firms usually play games to end up paying less than they should here
Toyota is investing zero in America these days. They have a worldwide problem of having over built. The profits get sent to Japan not that you care
86
posted on
02/22/2010 5:32:32 PM PST
by
dennisw
(It all comes 'round again --Fairport)
To: okie01
The light at the end of the tunnel is of no comfort when you’re stuck in the bottom of deep hole.
87
posted on
02/22/2010 5:34:21 PM PST
by
dr_who
To: cycle of discernment
thanks to federal debt and poor planning"If only we'd planned better." - Any O. Socialist (anytime in history)
88
posted on
02/22/2010 5:45:44 PM PST
by
1010RD
(First Do No Harm)
To: cycle of discernment
The problem, Mr. Munger, is government (Community Reinvestment Act, etc.), not your casino, which is the free market system. The solution, Mr. Munger, is less regulation, not more. You portray yourself as believing in limited government, but when we get to the details we see you are a socialist. Fortunately, your hero will be voted out in the next election. You made your money by taking advantage of the free market: now you piss on it. We can do without your poisonous opinions.
To: cycle of discernment
90
posted on
02/22/2010 6:25:24 PM PST
by
A.A. Cunningham
(Barry Soetoro is a Kenyan communist)
To: dennisw
The profits get sent to Japan not that you care Aw...come on. Such a little dig! I have followed your posts for years.
That's beneath you.
91
posted on
02/22/2010 6:53:18 PM PST
by
SonOfDarkSkies
(Luke 12:34 -- For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.)
To: dennisw
As far as taxes foreign firms usually play games to end up paying less than they should hereIf they do play games, they play games with our rules.
How stupid does that make us!
We write and enforce the regs.
92
posted on
02/22/2010 6:56:16 PM PST
by
SonOfDarkSkies
(Luke 12:34 -- For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.)
To: cycle of discernment
many of whom were engineers needed elsewhere.
I think THAT is a key point. Many of the brightest minds who could have worked in industries that BUILT stuff, instead went into Financial services as that's where the money is. Law was also lucrative, though now it seems that it's image has been severely tarnished.
93
posted on
02/22/2010 7:21:22 PM PST
by
Cronos
(Philipp2:12, 2Cor5:10, Rom2:6, Matt7:21, Matt22:14, Lu12:42-46,John15:1-10,Rev2:4-5,Rev22:19)
To: SonOfDarkSkies
I appreciate the compliment.....But many freepers I have jousted with over the years don’t care that profits from a Toyota-Nissan-Hyundai factory here go to Japan and Korea. They really don’t care and you seemed similar. Perhaps I was wrong. Freepers hate US autoworkers which is a big mistake. The enemy is unionized gov’t workers....Not unionized industrial workers whose ranks are shrinking all the time
Toyota and Nissan should never have been allowed to set up shop here. I saw all those Southern states whoring themselves out to get foreign automobile plants built on their turf. That happened about 20 years ago
94
posted on
02/22/2010 7:31:38 PM PST
by
dennisw
(It all comes 'round again --Fairport)
To: tiki
For all you financial people out there...what is going to happen when almost every country goes broke?
I don't believe that will happen to every country. Iceland, Estonia are examples of loose regulation, Greece is of extreme profligacy as is Spain.
Germany is doing pretty well, as is, to a lower extent France and Japan.
The UK is muddling through, wounded, but it will get through.
Ditto for the US (unless the beloved, great, awesome, super-duper, all-knowing, all-seeing President screws it up) -- the US will not default, but under Obama, we WILL lose our prestige and our position in the world (in many ways I'd stick my neck out and say we've already lost it). My fear is that Obambi ruins the US so badly by getting it so hooked on freebies, that the US will go into a terminal decline.
Among the developed world -- China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Thailand are doing well, Malaysia's export driven economy is a worry as it's under threat from both India and China. The Philippines is poor enough already so this can't hit it further even though it is tied to the US economy. The Middle East --> well, they have oil, as long as the US consumer keeps buying gas guzzlers, the US will pay for the Arabs profligacy and also pay for terrorist training camps. Africa is, well, forget about it :(
Latin America, Turkey -- I don't know enough to comment
Eastern Europe -- some will go down (the ones who opened up too quickly), some will muddle through (like the Czechs), and some may actually prosper.
A separate note here for Ireland. They've cut the salaries of government employees (the PM has taken a pay cut too) and have shrunk their government. In my opinion, doing this and more importantly, their WILLINGNESS to do this puts Ireland in a very good position to not default and, instead to prosper.
Of course, all of this is purely my personal, humble, opinion
95
posted on
02/22/2010 7:32:33 PM PST
by
Cronos
(Philipp2:12, 2Cor5:10, Rom2:6, Matt7:21, Matt22:14, Lu12:42-46,John15:1-10,Rev2:4-5,Rev22:19)
To: jdsteel
I’m sorry, but I read the article to be against big government: “Taxes are limited and pay for only essential services like fire protection, courts, and defense. Most taxes are collected on imports, and government spending matches that tax income. “
96
posted on
02/22/2010 7:33:38 PM PST
by
Cronos
(Philipp2:12, 2Cor5:10, Rom2:6, Matt7:21, Matt22:14, Lu12:42-46,John15:1-10,Rev2:4-5,Rev22:19)
To: TheThinker
So in Basicland, the government doesnt interfere in the economy or tax it too much? Or is that Fantasyland?
I think it is Fantasyland, though I like that fantasy. When government gets in business, it does it inefficiently. Things like Medicare, Social Services, etc. should be given to 3/4 private players and those should be evaluated constantly. The governments primary roles are: civil safety (cops, firemen), defense and justice (courts). Anything else opens up the door to too much, imho.
Though, I do see arguments to the contrary -- like trains for example: the trains in the US are abysmal, while train connections are cheaper and more effective in Europe (that's simplifying things -- the US is geographically larger and more difficult)
97
posted on
02/22/2010 7:42:24 PM PST
by
Cronos
(Philipp2:12, 2Cor5:10, Rom2:6, Matt7:21, Matt22:14, Lu12:42-46,John15:1-10,Rev2:4-5,Rev22:19)
To: SirJohnBarleycorn
ouch. I knew Social security and Medicare hit hard, but never realised just HOW hard. Thanks!
98
posted on
02/22/2010 7:51:03 PM PST
by
Cronos
(Philipp2:12, 2Cor5:10, Rom2:6, Matt7:21, Matt22:14, Lu12:42-46,John15:1-10,Rev2:4-5,Rev22:19)
To: dennisw
I don't have the time to discuss this matter, but as an economist (Econometics--career on Wall St) and someone who has actually worked in the auto industry (briefly after grad school...but profoundly so), I can suggest that you are on the wrong side of this issue.
That said, opinions are the product of a free country...and they are the enemy of Obama!
99
posted on
02/22/2010 7:53:35 PM PST
by
SonOfDarkSkies
(Luke 12:34 -- For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.)
To: SonOfDarkSkies
Developed nations that have pride make their own items on their own soil. They don’t invite foreigners in to make those items...such as automobiles
100
posted on
02/22/2010 8:01:31 PM PST
by
dennisw
(It all comes 'round again --Fairport)
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