Posted on 02/22/2010 1:13:43 PM PST by cycle of discernment
Buffett's Partner: 'It's Over' for U.S. Economy
Monday, 22 Feb 2010 11:42 AM By: Dan Weil
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner in Berkshire Hathaway, warns in a new column that the U.S. economic empire is crumbling before our eyes, thanks to federal debt and poor planning.
In an article penned for Slate.com, Munger uses the form of a parable to explain how Wall Street’s love affair with gambling has destroyed America’s Main Street.
The article leads with this headline: “Basically, It’s Over.”
The Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman describes the economic history of Basicland, which happens to match U.S. history.
Early in its history, debt is unknown except for home mortgages and some consumer loans, and people live within their means. Speculation is discouraged, and commodities markets are small and tightly regulated.
Under this rational system, economic growth skips merrily along at a steady 3 percent, Munger explains.
Taxes are limited and pay for only “essential services” like fire protection, courts, and defense. Most taxes are collected on imports, and government spending matches that tax income. Debt via government bonds is limited.
Then things take a turn for the worse.
“The extreme prosperity of Basicland had created a peculiar outcome: As their affluence and leisure time grew, Basicland's citizens more and more whiled away their time in the excitement of casino gambling,” Munger writes.
Financial services soon grow to account for too big a portion of the economy, Munger says.
“The winnings of the casinos eventually amounted to 25 percent of Basicland's GDP, while 22 percent of all employee earnings in Basicland were paid to persons employed by the casinos, many of whom were engineers needed elsewhere.”
Then, a shock: Imported energy costs rise, and low-cost labor competition from abroad appears, Munger writes.
“Suddenly Basicland had to come up with 30 percent of its GDP every year, in foreign currency, to pay its creditors,” Munger writes.
The U.S. deficit — just the gap between spending and income in one year — is projected to hit $1.6 trillion in 2010. Total debt is project to exceed 100 percent of GDP starting in 2011.
In the parable, Munger strongly suggests that the United States take seriously the campaign of Reagan-era Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who wants the big banks to cease pretending to be banks if they expect the freedom to trade securities on the side.
“He suggested that Basicland should strongly discourage casino gambling, partly through a complete ban on the trading in financial derivatives, and it should encourage former casino employees — and former casino patrons — to produce and sell items that foreigners were willing to buy,” Munger writes.
As the parable ends, none of the politicians listen, and Basicland turned into “Sorrowland,” Munger concludes.
If their pride is founded in fact, their products can withstand competition, even benefit from it.
No man, no country, ever benefited by running from the competition.
Your comment is like saying that our athletes are the best and don't need to compete internationally...particularly at the Olympics.
It is challenge (competition) that leads to excellence...not trade prohibition.
I hear Dell’s cutting another 5K Wednesday.
Then how come the Japanese never invited Ford or GM to build a plant on Japanese soil as a reciprocal measure 25 years ago? Back then GM and Ford were pretty good
Truth is the Japs had enough pride that even if the plants were built there they would have have sabotaged them and boycotted their products
When Obama becomes a real lame duck, our economy will explode!
Your are consumer oriented. You can see the endgame for that right here and now. A wrecked US economy
I am producer oriented. They should be king not the consumer. American producers should be king on US soil. Not Japanese or Korean producers
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Customer Review
By William A. Levinson
Anyone who has read “My Life and Work” will understand exactly what is wrong with our country today. There are three ways to create wealth—grow it, mine it, or make it—and activities like flipping houses or trading carbon credits do not qualify.
Ford developed what is now known as the Toyota production system, and readers will see a very explicit description of just in time manufacturing (and its benefits) in “My Life and Work.”
Ford also summarized effective labor relations in one sentence: “It ought to be the employer’s ambition, as leader, to pay better wages than any similar line of business, and it ought to be the workman’s ambition to make this possible.”
~~PING!
“The U.S. deficit — just the gap between spending and income in one year — is projected to hit $1.6 trillion in 2010. Total debt is project to exceed 100 percent of GDP starting in 2011.
In the parable, Munger strongly suggests that the United States take seriously the campaign of Reagan-era Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who wants the big banks to cease pretending to be banks if they expect the freedom to trade securities on the side.
“He suggested that Basicland should strongly discourage casino gambling, partly through a complete ban on the trading in financial derivatives, and it should encourage former casino employees — and former casino patrons — to produce and sell items that foreigners were willing to buy,” Munger writes.
As the parable ends, none of the politicians listen, and Basicland turned into “Sorrowland,” Munger concludes.”
I don't know why your comments are based on hatred of the Japanese, but...get over it.
America is a big county and we need competition to force us away from the unions and into the race for good automotive products.
Munger and Volcker are mostly correct there. But skimming Mungers essay I saw nothing about the ever growing public sector that is squeezing out the private sector. Maybe I missed it.
Volcker and Munger are old school both must be 80 or so. They lived in depressions wars and the post 1950 boom. They know the America that was a producer economy not a hybrid consumer/casino economy
look at the economic wreckage all around you
I am market oriented.
Why set up false barriers to protect inferior products.
If we want our products to compete...let them compete. Why deprive the consumer by offering them subprime crap...
Let them chose.
If we are good (our products), we will win...if we are crap, we deserve to die.
"Let them be King"...that's like creating a false universe in which our widdle baby products can PRETEND they are king while the world goes on without them.
You need to learn about business. Any economic wreckage around here isn't the fault of someone else...it is our own fault. We take FULL responsibility.
If you want to whine...join with Obama!
Around here...we fight for what we get.
I am ashamed of you!!!
I know more about Japanese culture than you can ever hope to in a million life times. I like them but my remarks pertain to any foreigners setting up shop here. They could be Russian Greek or Swedish automobile factories on US soil
BMW is in South Carolina
Go whine elsewhere...you have killed the respect I had for you!
Yeah it’s our fault and part of that stupidity was allowing Japanese Koreans and Germans to build automobile plants here
I am not a citizen of the world. But you sure seem to be one. You are a de facto citizen of the world. I am pro-American period! Plus a few other nations I favor
This is excellent!
I wonder if socialist scumbag Buffett called this guy Munger on the carpet for writing this?
whatever...
your concepts of free markets are not pro-American enough for me
I blame myself for ever thinking otherwise.
Losing respect for a person previous respected is a painful event...nothing to do with you. Poor judgment on my part!
Oh STARWISE, where to start.
We have government employee unions and their pensions being supported by taxpayers paid half the government workers’ salaries. I can hardly wait for the goverment workers in NJ that Governor Christie is going to cut to scream that the state will lose them as taxpayers!
Millions of jobs are not coming back. Ever. We produce virtually nothing that can’t be produced cheaper elsewhere, largely because of union wages. I’m not good at putting my thoughts into words on this subject.
My last laugh in your general direction is that your god of competition has failed you. A fake god of competition where we invite all kinds of foreigners in here to build factories.
No other developed nation behaves in such an asinine way. That’s how you kill a nation. You offer it as a blood sacrifice on your altar of competition. I could have written this 25 years ago and you know what? It has all come true. You decimate your industrial base and you are screwed as a nation
I know .. it’s breathtaking to witness. We
end up in Government Casinoland .. and the
Pit Boss and his croupiers are raving,
demonic lunatics.
We keep praying and praying harder, for only
God can end this madness. We beg His mercy.
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