Math stuff is not my thing.
PINGING AFPhys !!!
Good Idea! AF look over my figure and see what you think.
I got the percentage by rounding numbers posted or news articles posted yesterday.
Post 919 is close enough-
The real problem is that we don’t know accurately the number of Dems/ Indys/ Reps who are showing up today.
Using simple (off the top of my head “registration” and “will vote for” figures): around a quarter of the Dems (36%) and 2/3 of the Indys (51%) claim “voting Brown added” to the GOP (13%), simply yields
.25x36 + .67x51 + 1.0x13 = 9+34+13 = 56% for Brown
Those numbers are all easy to come up with, but that rub is that we don’t know the percentage of each group who will show up... that is what today’s election day will tell... and that is so overwhelmingly important that I haven’t even bothered to check how accurate my numbers above are for this post.
For example, If twice the percentage of the Dems show up than Indy’s and GOP - the % for Brown falls to:
(9+17+6)/(.36+.25+.7)=41%
Whereas, if half the percentage of the Dems show, it becomes:
(5+34+13)/(.18+.51+.13)=63%
Turnout decides...