Post 919 is close enough-
The real problem is that we don’t know accurately the number of Dems/ Indys/ Reps who are showing up today.
Using simple (off the top of my head “registration” and “will vote for” figures): around a quarter of the Dems (36%) and 2/3 of the Indys (51%) claim “voting Brown added” to the GOP (13%), simply yields
.25x36 + .67x51 + 1.0x13 = 9+34+13 = 56% for Brown
Those numbers are all easy to come up with, but that rub is that we don’t know the percentage of each group who will show up... that is what today’s election day will tell... and that is so overwhelmingly important that I haven’t even bothered to check how accurate my numbers above are for this post.
For example, If twice the percentage of the Dems show up than Indy’s and GOP - the % for Brown falls to:
(9+17+6)/(.36+.25+.7)=41%
Whereas, if half the percentage of the Dems show, it becomes:
(5+34+13)/(.18+.51+.13)=63%
Turnout decides...
Leni just posted they ae expecting 2,000,000 turn out...So do the math: Approx 1,200,000/Brown 8,000,000/Mah tha
I now think it will be higher than that. But 3:2 isn’t chicken feed.
Thank you, thank you, AFPhys!!!
Hoosiermama come see AFPhys’s numbers. You’re right on.
I lived in Mass for most of my life and was active in Republican politics. If the reported turn out is as it is reported to be, I haven’t seen any thing like it the 42 years I lived in Mass, in a special election.
From the large amount of anecdotal evidence that doesn't seem very likely the Dems will show up in force in those numbers. And as I'm sure you know, Indies out number Dems in Mass.
A historical note. Off presidential elections like this one average around 38% of the electorate show up to vote.
So it's really looking good for Brown.
We only need to know one thing... Every single Brown voter is crawling over broken glass to "show up".