I am glad to explain InTrade for you and others. The way that the “price” jumps around can be very confusing, especially when there is a large imbalance of “sell” and “buy” offers. In those (rather common) cases, the gap between them can get to be very large- since the person who offering to take the “unpopular” side will demand large compensation for the risk he’s taking. Thus, when a transaction takes place the reported ‘price’ takes a huge jump.
However, InTrade can be such a useful tool to estimate “sentiment” of those who are willing to “put their money where their mouth is” (presumably, the bulk of such people have some confidence that they have done sufficient study to justify that). Like the stock market, the values normally reflect perceived reality.
“However, InTrade can be such a useful tool to estimate “sentiment” of those who are willing to “put their money where their mouth is” (presumably, the bulk of such people have some confidence that they have done sufficient study to justify that). Like the stock market, the values normally reflect perceived reality.”
And, in this case, the results will basically be known in T-minus 3 hours and 52 minutes - when the polls close! :) Or perhaps about 5 hours...