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Threat Matrix: 2010
Freerepublic.com ^ | 12/31/2009 | Freeper TMers

Posted on 12/31/2009 10:06:46 AM PST by Velveeta

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
Critical Threats: Blank When None
Al Qaeda’s Yemen Connection, America and the Global Islamic Jihad

December 30, 2009 — The attempt to destroy Northwest Airlines flight 253 en route from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day underscores the growing ambition of al Qaeda's Yemen franchise, which has grown from a largely Yemeni agenda to become a player in the global Islamic jihad in the last year. Since merging with the al Qaeda franchise in Saudi Arabia last January and renaming itself Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), it has stepped up operations in Yemen itself, struck into Saudi Arabia, and now operates on the global stage. The weak Yemeni government of President Ali Abdallah Salih, which has never fully controlled the country and now faces a host of growing problems, will need significant American support to defeat AQAP.

Al Qaeda has long been active in Yemen, the original homeland of Osama bin Laden's family, and one of its first major terror attacks was conducted in Aden in 2000, when an al Qaeda cell nearly sank the USS Cole. A year ago, the al Qaeda franchises in Saudi Arabia and Yemen merged after the Saudi branch had been effectively repressed by the Saudi authorities under the leadership of Deputy Interior Minister Prince Muhammad bin Nayif. The new AQAP showed its claws last August, when it almost assassinated the prince with a suicide bomber who had passed through at least two airports on the way to his attempt on Nayif.

(snip)

The attack on the Amsterdam-Detroit flight also shows that al Qaeda remains obsessed with striking the American airline industry, a target it has gone after repeatedly since 1999. If AQAP has now been told by the al Qaeda core leadership to take on the job, we can probably assume that other al Qaeda franchises in North Africa, Iraq, Southeast Asia and elsewhere have also been pressed to attack.

The Brookings Institution



Threat Matrix:
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TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: cranswick; lacklancranswick; terror; terrorism; threatmatrix; tm; wot
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To: All

A Pakistani Christian reminds us of what the word ‘Martyr’ actually means.

(snip)

A recent story coming from Pakistan seems to fit this pattern exactly. In late October, at Islamabad’s International Islamic University, an Islamic suicide bomber tried to attack the women’s side of campus. But there worked a lowly janitor, Pervaiz Masih, who like so many of the 2 percent Christian minority in this 95 percent Muslim country are relegated to the most menial jobs in society-garbage collectors, sewage workers, and servants.

The suicide bomber was making his way to a cafeteria of some 300 to 400 women students, when Masih came between him and his goal. Masih is a common name among the Christian minority-it means Messiah. And on October 20th, Masih certainly followed in the footsteps of Jesus, the true Messiah. He refused to let the bomber pass. In the process the bomb detonated, killing Masih, the bomber, and three girls nearby. Meanwhile, the 300 to 400 Muslim girls inside the cafeteria were unharmed.

In the midst of the rubble from the explosion lay two martyrs. A so-called Muslim “martyr” had maliciously murdered others. Meanwhile, a Christian martyr had laid down his life for his brethren. A Christian died to save Muslims from a fellow Muslim.....(more at link)

http://vladtepesblog.com/?p=17510#more-17510


361 posted on 01/02/2010 8:02:26 PM PST by Velveeta
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To: nwctwx

Congrats, Ian!
Heading to read it now.


362 posted on 01/02/2010 8:06:19 PM PST by Velveeta
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To: JustPiper

Oh Yeah! ...he’s done..went down hard too...
checked images of him alive so I could contrast...they sure hit him many times but i would think the intention was to take him down hard..


363 posted on 01/02/2010 8:16:59 PM PST by caww
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To: WestCoastGal

I recall reading today a British ship had been taken? might be it. Second ship in a weeks time..they’re on a roll again.


364 posted on 01/02/2010 8:20:59 PM PST by caww
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To: nwctwx

Great article and graph..thanks


365 posted on 01/02/2010 8:27:03 PM PST by caww
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To: blackie; JustPiper; WestCoastGal; Rushmore Rocks; Velveeta; Oorang; Godzilla; Cindy; ExSoldier
Chinese company considers a future with nuclear cargo shipping - your thoughts?

Now comes a real shocker. Mr Wei, the CEO of Chinese shipping giant Cosco is looking into the feasibility of running a cargo shipping fleet using nuclear power.

The New York Times James Kantor is reporting that Mr Wei told the British maritime newspaper Lloyd’s List that his company was consulting with Chinese nuclear companies to see if the idea was practicable.

Citrus growers - we're struggling to save industry

Citrus growers are starting out the new decade in what many of them view as their final fight for survival. The threat from so-called citrus greening - also called Huanglongbing or yellow dragon disease - is so great that growers, who by nature grouse at any levy on their fruit, have voted to further tax themselves to pay for the international last stand against the tree killer.

Equine disease restricting horse transport into NM

An equine disease that can result in acute illness and sometimes death is restricting the transport of some horses into New Mexico. The New Mexico Livestock Board has barred the import of horses from Texas counties that have confirmed cases of equine piroplasmosis. Racehorses will not be allowed to enter a New Mexico racetrack until they have a negative equine pirophasmosis test within six months.

New Mexico tech expert - terrorist was inept

Snips: Federal investigators say the suspect, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, 23, attempted to detonate 80 grams of the explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate, or PETN, as Northwest Flight 253 was on final approach to the Detroit Metropolitan Airport from Amsterdam.

"In order to make this stuff work, you have to know what you're doing," said Van Romero, an explosives expert with Tech's Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center in Socorro.

Intentionally creating an explosion with hard-to-detect components is no simple task, Romero said. It usually involves the blending of one or more types of explosives, often referred to as an explosives "train," he said.

At one end of the train is a relatively stable explosive that is not easily detonated; at the other end is another type of explosive that is very volatile and easy to detonate. In between can be a moderately sensitive explosive — called a booster — that bridges the explosive power of the highly sensitive explosive with the more stable explosive that does the bulk of the destruction.

For example, highly sensitive nitroglycerine could be used to detonate a booster, which in turn detonates the stable explosive.

"PETN is one of those explosives that's in the middle," Romero said. "It's fairly sensitive, but not super sensitive so that you have to constantly worry about it when you're handling it."

Because of those properties, PETN is used commercially as a booster in mine blasting operations, for example.

Saudi Arabia calls for Iran to free Bin Laden daughter

After fleeing house arrest and seeking refuge at a Saudi embassy in Tehran, the government of Saudi Arabia is asking Iran to free the daughter of Usama Bin Laden.

On Saturday, Saudi Arabia announced that it is holding talks with the government of Iran over the issue of repatriating Imam Bin Laden, the daughter of Usama Bin Laden, after she escaped house arrest and sought refuge in a Saudi embassy in Tehran, according to AFP.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said at a news conference that they are negotiating with the Iranian government and it's being considered as a humanitarian issue. However, he has declined to provide any specific details noting that it could complicate the situation.

The 17-year-old daughter ran away from a family compound in Tehran to the embassy. The girl wants to leave Iran and says she, at least eleven siblings and a wife of Bin Laden are being held under house arrest.

366 posted on 01/02/2010 8:44:54 PM PST by MamaDearest
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To: nwctwx

Ooooh you get LEAD-IN Byline!!! Going to read now! Also like your girl Amy, good Polish name :)


367 posted on 01/02/2010 9:04:51 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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To: All
By IAN LIVINGSTON

States of Conflict: An Update"

In 2009, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan dominated American military and foreign policy. Which themes emerged over the last year?

In Iraq, 2009 was the year of relatively smooth transitions. Despite catastrophic attacks in August, October and December, and a continuing level of violence that keeps it a troubled place by normal standards, the year went reasonably well in statistical terms. Violence did not increase, even as United States forces left the cities and generally reduced their role.

In Pakistan, 2009 was the year of the offensives. The country was still very turbulent, but major government military initiatives in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan reflected a new determination against the Pakistani Taliban. Unfortunately, the Taliban responded in its own brutal way with an intensification of suicide attacks against civilians, killing hundreds.

But momentum may be shifting to the government’s side — helped by successful American drone attacks against top Taliban and Qaeda leaders. That said, in terms of the basic strength of its economy and society, Pakistan is far from out of the woods.

In Afghanistan, 2009 was the year of decisions — by President Obama, of course, by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal and by the Afghan people as they re-elected Hamid Karzai as president. Afghanistan had a bloody year, with more than 300 Americans and some 500 international troops, as well as more than 1,000 Afghan security personnel, losing their lives.

However, as General McChrystal noted in recent Congressional testimony following President Obama’s decision to raise troop levels in Afghanistan, our operations have begun to change the momentum in parts of the country — though this momentum is bound to be halting, as last week’s horrific suicide bombing at a United States base made painfully clear. In the year ahead, the hope is that this fragile progress will continue, and that President Karzai will justify American support by accelerating his efforts to reform the Afghan police force and to root out corruption.

Ian Livingston and Heather Messera are researchers at the Brookings Institution in Washington

368 posted on 01/02/2010 9:10:14 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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To: MamaDearest; TigersEye; Godzilla; appalachian_dweller; Oorang; Rushmore Rocks; ...
Our Very Own NWCTWX !!!

If you would like to be added to my TM pinglist or removed just email me

369 posted on 01/02/2010 9:11:56 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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To: JustPiper

This seems very oversimplified to me, and even somewhat naive, but I am not familiar with previous work, so withold judgement.
You DON’T want to get me started on McChrystal and Afghanistan. OR the backward trend in Iraq. OR the insanity in Pakistan.
And NOW we can add Yemen, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Nigeria, to Sudan, Egypt, and more to the creeping war zones of muslim terrorism threatening to start literal tribal warfare all over the African continent.
Just saying.


370 posted on 01/02/2010 9:27:00 PM PST by MestaMachine (Your CORE is the path you walk. RINOs don't walk paths, they build roads to nowhere..)
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To: nwctwx

I was pleasantly surprised to see that the percentage of Pakistanis considering al Qaeda to be a major threat was 94%!


371 posted on 01/02/2010 9:27:35 PM PST by Velveeta
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To: nwctwx
Ian Livingston


372 posted on 01/02/2010 9:46:03 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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To: MestaMachine; nwctwx

I betchya Ian would like to banter with you :)


373 posted on 01/02/2010 9:47:55 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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To: JustPiper; nwctwx

Need to familiarize myself. There is so much “stuff,” and I realize grabbing good context is tough in many situations, but this analysis just seems to be very narrow and out of sync with what is really going on.
Would like to know what this analysis is based on.


374 posted on 01/02/2010 9:58:37 PM PST by MestaMachine (Your CORE is the path you walk. RINOs don't walk paths, they build roads to nowhere..)
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To: JustPiper; MestaMachine
The numbers themselves don't really lie... I have only recently delved into the projects that Dr. O’Hanlon has overseen for several years.

The trends in Iraq are clear, and might even be something of an ultimate vindication of the Bush policy when all is said and done. It is fragile for sure, but recent months have seen steep declines in violence as a whole. November was by some counts the lowest civilian casualty month since the war began. December went back up but much of it is due to Ashura which has historically been violent. The big attacks and seeming resurgence of at least some AQI is troubling, and perhaps a future lean toward an Iranian-like state... but, the Iraqis do seem to enjoy democracy so there is reason to think it could turn out OK after some rocky periods.

The increased troops in Afghanistan have helped stabilize the areas that have seen the increase. The additional troops should continue that trend. If we can really push the Taliban and AQ into the country and kill the worst and demoralize the 'best' then it's a good thing. Afghanistan is a big place, I'm not sure the U.S. or allies could really up the numbers to match it's size. Getting out does not make much sense given the fact that many high profile attacks and attempts have come from the region.

There are lots of questions with Pakistan, as the attack yesterday reminds. It does seem they are trying to work to defeat the Taliban and associated elements, but I am not sure they understand counterinsurgency as well as the U.S. and the allies. The drone attacks are taking out top leadership left and right but also annoy large parts of the population. It is obviously heavily tied to Afghanistan and the point about attacks being plotted and then activated from the region.

The Yemen thing is a bit scary just because it seems AQ or similar groups could just keep popping up in weak or failed states. I don't know all that much about the situation there, but it seems like it could boil over in some fashion.

375 posted on 01/02/2010 10:05:33 PM PST by nwctwx
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To: MestaMachine; MamaDearest; WestCoastGal; Rushmore Rocks; All
From 2004 (NOE)

Not all Muslims are terrorists, but almost all terrorists are Muslims

US official: Extremists seek new ways to attack US

Our Homegrown Terror Threat by Michael Chertoff

376 posted on 01/02/2010 10:06:33 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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Is SamHenry a TM'er? :)

Obama has a Situation Room meeting at the WH Tuesday with military brass and Administration ass. Don’t count on word a decision has been made – not even a suggestion that one is coming. It will just be a dithering cover announcement. Terrorists are realistic about Obama outcomes; we are not

But the lesson provided by Umar Abdulmutallab on Christmas Day has been lost to Obama Administration

377 posted on 01/02/2010 10:08:21 PM PST by JustPiper (Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. ~ML King)
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To: nwctwx

Just went over the numbers you posted. They seem to me to be way off. Where do you get these numbers?
One in particular that is skewed badly, is the poppy harvest. In reality, it has never been higher and has increased dramatically every year since the start of the Afghan War.
Also not taken into account is how many taliban insurgents/sympathizers actually make up the numbers for the Afghan Security Forces.
All indications from Iraq are that the Sunni-Shia split is re-emerging and the trend AGAINST the Kurds is strengthening as government corruption increases.
I am just questioning where this information actually came from.
The US Commanders on the ground in Iraq are increasingly unhappy at how They are being shut down and dissed by this admin AND the Iraqi Government.


378 posted on 01/02/2010 10:20:42 PM PST by MestaMachine (Your CORE is the path you walk. RINOs don't walk paths, they build roads to nowhere..)
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To: JustPiper

Oh yes, I read her stats at Brookings yesturday I think. Left a post for her back on the thread. Appreciated the info and gave broad picture far more than news informs. Scales etc. give you a better idea as well of progress or not..plus stats on what the Iraq e people say.


379 posted on 01/02/2010 10:35:42 PM PST by caww
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To: MestaMachine

Mesta, I believe alot of the info is from Gov. agencies reporting...but she would be able to be more specific.


380 posted on 01/02/2010 10:39:12 PM PST by caww
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