Posted on 11/21/2009 7:26:17 PM PST by jveritas
Today healthcare vote in the Senate was so badly represented by many on our side and of course by the media and was blown way out of proportion. In reality it is a meaningless vote. The vote today was only to start the debate and it is absolutely does not guarantee at all that the current bill in the Senate with it current version of public option aka socialized medicine is going to pass. In fact as it stands now this current bill is assured to be defeated because the socialists are not going to get 60 votes for cloture to end the debate and hence they cannot move the bill for a final vote. In other words the bill in its current form is dead.
Senator Lieberman has said so many times, very clearly, and very adamantly that he is going to filibuster an end for the debate as long as it has any form of public option and he also said many times that he was going to vote to allow the start of the debate as he did today. That is why Senator Lieberman has been for weeks the most hated person among the left wing lunatics. Many people misunderstood and misinterpreted what he has been saying and thought that Lieberman did not follow through on what he said he was going to do.
Senator Olympia Snowe has said that she is going to filibuster an end to the debate on this current healthcare bill if it contains the current form of public option. She wants a trigger public option which in practical political terms a meaningless thing that will never be triggered. In fact today she even voted against the start of the debate.
Now some will say that if the socialists do not get 60 votes to end the debate and move the bill for a final vote then they are going to use reconciliation or the so called “nuclear option”. This is very unlikely because for the use of reconciliation the bill has to go back to the budget committee or finance committee where it is going to be watered down significantly and just includes the insignificant trigger public option or a trigger co-op. Even very left wing Senators like Tom Harkin said that reconciliation will be a very bad thing to do.
What is the most likely scenario?
Most probably they are going to be able to pass a healthcare bill that contains a trigger public option or a trigger co-op which in all practical form is a meaningless gesture because it is not going to be triggered at all in the future. This is the bill that will go to Obama to sign it into law, the democrat politicians and their media will celebrate but their left wing lunatic base will go insane in a way that will shock many. The left wing lunatic base wants a strong public option (aka socialized medicine) as a minimum and is very much against a trigger public option or a trigger co-op because they know very well that the trigger means absolutely nothing and when this happens the left wing lunatic base is going to explode in total anger against the democrat party.
First - thanks for your posts. The chicken littles were getting out of hand. No I understand that the bill will essentially regulate insurance companies out of the healthcare business. It will harm care, harm doctors and other companies in the health industry.
Obama has been promising more business to the drug companies and special side deals but there is nothing positive for anyone in the industry.
I think the point I was trying to make dovetails with what you said about things going on in the background. These comapnies and their lobbyists are not going to take this lying down. Ditto for doctors.
I would bet a lot of companies in CT are going to make sure Dodd gets bounced in 2010. Liberman is not going to cross Aetna in CT. He is too smart for that. A few drug companies and Cigna in PA will remember Specter’s vote in 2010.
Other Dems that are more moderate in redder states? I would guess a lot of doctors and other people in the industry will be doing everything they can to get Lincoln, Nelson, fat Mary in LA and others fired in 2010 if thos comes close to passing.
Thanks again for your posts.
“Tho perhaps all reconciled bills are subject to nullification after 5 years, what bills with this type of scope have ever been nullified? Seems at the very least we would have to hold conservative majorities in House, Senate, and Pres.”
Bush’s tax cuts are being nullified—the five years are up. The dems won’t renew. And you actually make my point. It’s looking very good that the dems are committing political suicide with this. We should be able to get our way in five years—if this thing should happen to pass by reconciliation.
Here is Intrade
Up slightly to $4.0 but the trend is clearly down - in a BIG way. People will say big deal but futures markets and bookies are a big deal.
The bet is whether it gets passed by the end of the year. My feeling is if it does not get passed by Dec. 31, 2008 then it is dead. No way they will touch it in Jan 2010. Unemployment benefits for many people will be up by then. It will not be a pretty time.
“My feeling is if it does not get passed by Dec. 31, 2008 then it is dead.”
Correction Dec 21, 2009.
I agree with your points somewhat, though there’s been a very strong pro-choice push to put their language back in. Keeping the Stupak amendment and the trigger option would be the intelligent course—since Pelosi can strong arm the libs in her chamber to accept the inevitable and since passage is impossible in the Senate unless this is done. But both Reid and Pelosi are ideologues—so who knows?
Nelson has plenty of other complaints. So does Bayh—who wrote an op-ed piece just the other day complaining about the huge deficits we’re facing. Then there’s Dorgan and Lincoln facing tough elections—and Warner who’s a former businessman and understands the dangers of deficit spending. Besides, he comes from VA where his side was clobbered recently. And there’s Webb, also from VA—and so it goes.
Hopefully we can keep the vote to close debate at 58 or 59.
It wont be easy for them, but it’s going to be a nailbiter either way.
Some believe this is also an engineered eventuality created to destroy Capitalism and allow Obama, Pelosi and Reid to recreate the USA in the Socialist image.
Doesn’t MA have a special election for Kennedy’s seat???
I totally agree. There is a lot of local politics being at stake here in many states and districts.
A couple of other upbeat points:
David Broder, the dean of liberal journalists, will come out with a Washington Post column tomorrow that tears the bill to shreds for its fiscal irresponsibility. It’s a devastating piece.
Bonnie Erbe, another liberal journalist who writes for US News and World Report, came out with a scathing denouncement of the deal that paid Landrieu hundreds of millions to vote yes to proceed.
So the liberal media is not altogether on this. Some important voices are being raised at a critical time—and they carry weight with a lot of politicians. Broder is especially regarded highly.
Yes, January 19 2009.
I qualified my comment by saying a bill with this scope. Similar far-reaching bills would be Soc. Sec. The Bush Tax Cuts were set to expire from the onset. The Health Care “Reform” bill is not. I think it will take an act of God to get it nullified. That said, I hope you are correct; hope it is in fact political suicide and that the bill will be nullified. Please prove me wrong in a few years!!!
you mean 1-19-2010...right?
All the bills you mentioned were passed with bipartisan support. This is the first time in modern history a major bill has only been supported by one of the parties. The Democratic coalition is already fracturing as a result. Independents now lean heavily toward the GOP. Seniors ditto. There’s evidence suburbanites are likewise disgusted. So there’s a likelihood the GOP would benefit—and be well-positioned to undo this thing should it go through the reconciliation process, especially if we unseat Obama in 2012. That said, it’s unlikely to go that route.
Welcome to FR praepos.
I should have written sign in date instead of sign off.
Correct.
Actually New York has two. Gillebrand's seat for the remaining two years of Clinton's term. Schumer's seat for a full term.
Congresscritters can’t be recalled. That is unconstitutional.
Some believe this is also an engineered eventuality created to destroy Capitalism and allow Obama, Pelosi and Reid to recreate the USA in the Socialist image.
+++++++++++++++
I believe that. I also believe they tanked the markets in fall of 2008 because McCain was up in the polls.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.