Posted on 09/14/2009 4:53:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For all the talk of another big drop coming, the pieces are in place for 3 years of 15% annual increases for the giants of the blue-chip index.
It's been exactly a year since the government kicked a smoldering financial crisis into a roaring blaze by letting Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ, news, msgs) collapse. Observers this week are memorializing the mistake, but investors need to look forward -- and what they should see is that the government's later reaction to its error may have actually laid the groundwork for the greatest bull market of the decade.
For while it seems unlikely and irrational in the context of all the lousy economic news you see right now, stocks are well on their way to recovering from the Lehman jolt and ambling with all deliberate speed toward all-time highs. And they don't really care if you believe it or not.
Dow 14,000? Maybe not next week. But in three years? Not a problem.
The signs are abundant, if you know where to look: in the corporate credit markets, in employment trends, in consumer credit trends, in government statements and in corporate revenue trends. You don't need to be a statistician or an insider to see them, but you do need to keep an open mind to see why the 30 goliaths of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), companies such as Caterpillar (CAT, news, msgs), Intel (INTC, news, msgs), Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) and Boeing (BA, news, msgs), could see their stocks rise 15% a year for three years.
Here's what I'm seeing just in the news of the past three weeks and what I think needs to happen next.
(Excerpt) Read more at articles.moneycentral.msn.com ...
There’s always a second.
Just ask the Germans!
Mr. Markham should be ashamed of himself.
The dollar amount of my home loan will not increase, but I am planning on being able to pay it off with inflated dollars here soon.
“The signs are abundant, if you know where to look”
Yep...why not try looking at the lack of jobs and the GROWING debt.
(This author needs a quick course in macroeconomics.)
If it makes it to 10K, I’m getting the HELL out, until we get some “business and industry friendly” conservatives in charge of this country!
14,000 in 3 years?
Noooooo. Not in 3 years with OBozo in charge.
Suckers...
I'm actually considering betting the DJIA to drop to the 8500-9000 range by the end of 2009, mostly because of fears of runaway inflation and the cost of Obama-supported legislation.
” but I am planning on being able to pay it off with inflated dollars here soon. “
Or taking out a second mortgage to go grocery shopping...
Lots of debt is good when in periods of high inflation - as long as your debt doesn’t have an adjustable interest rate...
Anyone sitting on cash gets wiped out.
The exact opposite is true in periods of deflation.
I’m betting on inflation. You can’t print endless dollars and not devalue them.
Of course they will. They own the US.
Just a few decades ago we went thru high inflation and while my debt wasn’t great, I did enjoy paying it off with inflated dollars. Unfortunately, we may have laid the groundwork for a much worse situation today. I’m not an economist, but I sure don’t see any way we can cope with the trillions in debt we’ve just made.
Right. There is a tiny bit of gristle left on the Little Peoples' carcass, and they are determined to get it.
I get frantic pushy high pressure calls all the time from "Wealth Management" places....actually just boiler room operations touting their in-house junk. If they even suspect you have anything left in your 401 (k), they are on you like Velcro.
Another thing.
Never even read any "Advice" Fidelity publishes when you see it on Yahoo Finance. What does anyone EXPECT them to say, except, "NO!!! Leave it in, so we can take it to the track a few more times!!!"
As in crap shoot
I'm with you on this one - maybe even will go lower. The only bubble left to blow is the government spending one and that can't have a happy ending if it keeps going the way it's going. There's still way too much debt out there and Enron style balance sheet accounting going on. Without transparency and truth in reporting, The consumer is tapped out and not able to come back any time soon. I'm scared to bet on the market at this stage.
Not quite as bad an experience, but as a senior with his home paid off, I am constantly bombarded by their brothers in the "reverse mortgage" business. It appears that anybody who had a nickel left is a target for some scavenger outfit.
Inflation is such a wonderful thing! Soon the government will be able to buy its own debt because China will refuse to. It will be a glorious dayin in Obamerica.
The federal government has decided to inflate it's way out of it's social security mess and other "obligations".
Hopey, changey... neat.
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