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Will Dow return to 14,000 ? Bet on it
MSN Money ^ | 9/14/2009 | John Markman

Posted on 09/14/2009 4:53:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

For all the talk of another big drop coming, the pieces are in place for 3 years of 15% annual increases for the giants of the blue-chip index.

It's been exactly a year since the government kicked a smoldering financial crisis into a roaring blaze by letting Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ, news, msgs) collapse. Observers this week are memorializing the mistake, but investors need to look forward -- and what they should see is that the government's later reaction to its error may have actually laid the groundwork for the greatest bull market of the decade.

For while it seems unlikely and irrational in the context of all the lousy economic news you see right now, stocks are well on their way to recovering from the Lehman jolt and ambling with all deliberate speed toward all-time highs. And they don't really care if you believe it or not.

Dow 14,000? Maybe not next week. But in three years? Not a problem.

The signs are abundant, if you know where to look: in the corporate credit markets, in employment trends, in consumer credit trends, in government statements and in corporate revenue trends. You don't need to be a statistician or an insider to see them, but you do need to keep an open mind to see why the 30 goliaths of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), companies such as Caterpillar (CAT, news, msgs), Intel (INTC, news, msgs), Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) and Boeing (BA, news, msgs), could see their stocks rise 15% a year for three years.

Here's what I'm seeing just in the news of the past three weeks and what I think needs to happen next.

(Excerpt) Read more at articles.moneycentral.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho44; bhodjia; dow; dow10000; stockmarket; wallstreet
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To: ColdWater

There’s always a second.


21 posted on 09/14/2009 5:15:12 AM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Impeach President Bernanke.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Dow 20,000, 20% unemployment and $200 Happy Meals are all possible at the same time.

Just ask the Germans!

22 posted on 09/14/2009 5:16:14 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: SeekAndFind

Mr. Markham should be ashamed of himself.


23 posted on 09/14/2009 5:17:29 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: SeekAndFind

The dollar amount of my home loan will not increase, but I am planning on being able to pay it off with inflated dollars here soon.


24 posted on 09/14/2009 5:18:47 AM PDT by umgud (Look to gov't to solve your everday problems and they'll control your everday life.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“The signs are abundant, if you know where to look”

Yep...why not try looking at the lack of jobs and the GROWING debt.

(This author needs a quick course in macroeconomics.)


25 posted on 09/14/2009 5:19:59 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified DeCartes))
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To: LibLieSlayer

If it makes it to 10K, I’m getting the HELL out, until we get some “business and industry friendly” conservatives in charge of this country!

14,000 in 3 years?

Noooooo. Not in 3 years with OBozo in charge.


26 posted on 09/14/2009 5:20:46 AM PDT by Muzzle_em (FUBO!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Suckers...


27 posted on 09/14/2009 5:20:52 AM PDT by WKUHilltopper
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To: WKUHilltopper
Will China retaliate against Zero's Tire quota’s
28 posted on 09/14/2009 5:23:54 AM PDT by scooby321 (and)
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To: SeekAndFind
No.

I'm actually considering betting the DJIA to drop to the 8500-9000 range by the end of 2009, mostly because of fears of runaway inflation and the cost of Obama-supported legislation.

29 posted on 09/14/2009 5:24:30 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: umgud

” but I am planning on being able to pay it off with inflated dollars here soon. “

Or taking out a second mortgage to go grocery shopping...


30 posted on 09/14/2009 5:24:33 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (Rope is cheap, and there are lots of trees...)
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To: umgud

Lots of debt is good when in periods of high inflation - as long as your debt doesn’t have an adjustable interest rate...

Anyone sitting on cash gets wiped out.

The exact opposite is true in periods of deflation.

I’m betting on inflation. You can’t print endless dollars and not devalue them.


31 posted on 09/14/2009 5:25:34 AM PDT by DB
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To: scooby321

Of course they will. They own the US.


32 posted on 09/14/2009 5:28:35 AM PDT by WKUHilltopper
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To: DB

Just a few decades ago we went thru high inflation and while my debt wasn’t great, I did enjoy paying it off with inflated dollars. Unfortunately, we may have laid the groundwork for a much worse situation today. I’m not an economist, but I sure don’t see any way we can cope with the trillions in debt we’ve just made.


33 posted on 09/14/2009 5:29:18 AM PDT by umgud (Look to gov't to solve your everday problems and they'll control your everday life.)
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
What we're seeing is a classic pump-and-dump.

Right. There is a tiny bit of gristle left on the Little Peoples' carcass, and they are determined to get it.

I get frantic pushy high pressure calls all the time from "Wealth Management" places....actually just boiler room operations touting their in-house junk. If they even suspect you have anything left in your 401 (k), they are on you like Velcro.

Another thing.

Never even read any "Advice" Fidelity publishes when you see it on Yahoo Finance. What does anyone EXPECT them to say, except, "NO!!! Leave it in, so we can take it to the track a few more times!!!"

34 posted on 09/14/2009 5:29:56 AM PDT by Gorzaloon (Roark, Architect.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Bet on it

As in crap shoot

35 posted on 09/14/2009 5:30:00 AM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: RayChuang88
I'm actually considering betting the DJIA to drop to the 8500-9000 range by the end of 2009, mostly because of fears of runaway inflation and the cost of Obama-supported legislation.

I'm with you on this one - maybe even will go lower. The only bubble left to blow is the government spending one and that can't have a happy ending if it keeps going the way it's going. There's still way too much debt out there and Enron style balance sheet accounting going on. Without transparency and truth in reporting, The consumer is tapped out and not able to come back any time soon. I'm scared to bet on the market at this stage.

36 posted on 09/14/2009 5:35:35 AM PDT by randita (Chains we can bereave in.)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: Gorzaloon
I get frantic pushy high pressure calls all the time from "Wealth Management" places....actually just boiler room operations touting their in-house junk. If they even suspect you have anything left in your 401 (k), they are on you like Velcro.

Not quite as bad an experience, but as a senior with his home paid off, I am constantly bombarded by their brothers in the "reverse mortgage" business. It appears that anybody who had a nickel left is a target for some scavenger outfit.

38 posted on 09/14/2009 5:37:56 AM PDT by Oatka ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves." –Bertrand de Jouvenel)
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To: SeekAndFind

Inflation is such a wonderful thing! Soon the government will be able to buy its own debt because China will refuse to. It will be a glorious dayin in Obamerica.


39 posted on 09/14/2009 5:42:41 AM PDT by MichiganConservative (ObamaCare is socialism. It will do nothing but increase premature, unnecessary death.)
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To: SeekAndFind
what a joke.. I'll bet that the DOW will be 40,000... cause gas will be $30 a gallon a loaf of bread for $10 and my house will be worth 1 Bijillion dollars..

The federal government has decided to inflate it's way out of it's social security mess and other "obligations".

Hopey, changey... neat.

40 posted on 09/14/2009 5:44:08 AM PDT by erman (Give a man a fire, warm him for one night. Set a man on fire, warm him for the rest of his life.)
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