Swine Flu Garners Pandemic Status [Level 6, and There Is No 7]

ABC News ^ | June 11, 2009 | Gitika Ahuja and Dan Childs

[2ndDivisionVet]

The World Health Organization this morning formally declared that swine flu had reached the level of a full-blown pandemic, moving the viral outbreaks to phase 6 on the pandemic alert scale.

WHO Director-General Dr Margaret Chan met with flu experts at 6 a.m. ET today in Geneva to discuss the spread of the novel virus, and since Wednesday the escalation to the highest level of pandemic alert had been widely anticipated.

The move reflects the continued spread of the virus around the globe, despite quarantines, school closings and other measures designed to keep it in check. Swine flu is the first official influenza pandemic in more than 40 years.

However, public health experts say there's no reason for the public to be more concerned about the virus today than yesterday; indeed, it is unlikely that much will change at all for the general public.

"From a macro view, the main actions defined for WHO phase 5 are the same as those for phase 6," said Dr. Julie Gerberding, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "However, individual countries and communities may have conditioned key tactical and operational steps of their response to the WHO phases, so there could be significant local, regional, or national impact. Technically, we have been in phase 6 for some time."

"When you hear this announcement, and your children are with you, main thing is to reassure kids not really all that much is going to change unless things get more severe," Dr. Irwin Redlener of the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health in New York, told "Good Morning America."

Other infectious disease experts were quick to point out that the pandemic designation refers to the spread of a disease -- not its severity.

[DoughtyOne]

I guess this has spread far and wide, so officially it can be called a pandemic. The Swine Flue has sure been an education to me though. I used to think of Pandemic as a massive killer. I could have reverent respect, perhaps fear of that. Now it means nothing at all.

Pandemic has been reduced to nothingness in a matter of months. And so has the fearmongering WHO, the CDC, and other blathering nabobs of irrelevance.

[21twelve]

There was some kid in my kids’ school who had it two weeks ago - but not serious and seems to be the tail end of it here. I hope that it doesn’t mutate into something worse as it makes it way south and then back north this fall.

However, it has a higher rate of transmission than the noraml flu, which increases the number of hosts, which I imagine also increases the rate of mutation. Mutations which could make it more - or less - deadly.

[Freedom Dignity n Honor]

Because it’s ravaging Australia right now. It’s in many countries with about 30,000 infected. In Australia, it’s winter and the virus is percolating and might change so that by our flu season, it could be a monster...or it could just die out.

[Guenevere]

Remember the infamous Swine Flu of 1976.

...and the resulting paralysis and deaths from the shot itself, due to Guilliam-Barre Syndrome!

I will not trust this present administration to care 2 cents about me or my health!

[dangerdoc]

They are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. The WHO monitors risk and tries to deal with that risk in a pro-active way.

It is the media that takes what the WHO and CDC are doing and try to scare people because it creates ratings and sells papers.

[spectre]

"You know, they're going to end up regretting crying wolf like this. People won't take the next one that's truly a pandemic seriously until it's too late.

That's because the public seemed to be educated to believe the word "pandemic" and mortality were one and the same.

I agree with you.

sw

[dangerdoc]

Pandemic relates to how many people have a natural resistance.

We regularly have pandemics of cold viruses. We will probably have a pandemic of the swine flu. If it happens without picking up more severe pathenogenic genes then it will give a lot of people a bad week and nothing more. If it picks up a couple of bad genes from another flu viruses, then it could kill millions. Nobody knows but responsible public health programs try to prepare for the worst.

BTW, don’t be too cocky, there have always been pandemics and our global economy makes us more susceptable than ever.

[DoughtyOne]

The WHO, the CDC, the Obama administration, the nation’s media and even folks on this forum try to scare the hell out of the U.S. public and I’m the one who is cocky?

Thanks for the warning, as if we hadn’t already been given the full panic mode (shouting fire in a crowded theater) treatment already.

[Rashputin]

dangerdoc -
“They are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. The WHO monitors risk and tries to deal with that risk in a pro-active way.”

I agree completely.

I hope this one is something the folks here are right in laughing off. As one poster said, though, cry wolf enough times and it doesn't work any more. I'd hate to think that another 1918 could come slinking around while being laughed off as just another conspiracy.

[OB1kNOb]

So why scare the whole world?

The same would likely have been said in 1918 if they had the same level of communication and forwarning as we do today. If you look at the Spanish flu mortality graph from the U.K. (source: CDC), you'll see that it cropped up initially when flu season has normally ended in the Northern hemisphere (like this current flu) with a small mortality peak (think Mexico) and was relatively mild, mortality-wise, and lasted through the summer (like the current flu is showing signs of doing all over the world) only to return with a vengeance the next fall and winter during the expected flu season, reaching it's highest of three mortality peaks, with the third peak occuring the following early spring.

If WHO and the CDC did not try to raise the world's awareness of this flu like they currently are, what would everyone be saying if this current flu starts repeating the same mortality peak trend come September-October? Do they err on the side of caution by warning people now, or throw caution to the wind by saying nothing and risk having it act like the Spanish flu this coming fall? I vote for erring on the side of caution. JMO.

[Cementjungle]

Quick! Let’s enact a global health coverage plan. We’ll put Obama in charge since he’s got boatloads of money to spend these days. Free medical care for terrorists will surely make them adore us.

[reformedliberal]

Everyone we know in our area, as well as ourselves, have had it. I would estimate that in about 75% or more, the symptoms were very mild, just a week-ten days of fatigue, headache, low appetite and some low level muscle aches following a slight cold. The other 25% or so reported a more typical influenza, with respiratory symptoms and some GI symptoms. No deaths we are aware of, including a couple of late elderly (80s) who did develop pneumonia, but recovered with appropriate treatment.

My husband works with the public and two days a week has office hours in our home. We are strict about handwashing and just told everyone making appointments to let us know if there was illness in their home or office and we would gladly reschedule them to a week or ten days further out. Everyone was compliant.

I have seen no panic and no real dismissal. People are much wiser than many would assume, IMO, and simply followed hygienic procedures, took off from work/school if they were ill and monitored their own progression. AFAIK, only those with underlying conditions even consulted a physician.

[kalee]

A couple at our church have a 1 year old grandchild who was hospitalized last night in critical condition. This AM it was diagnosed as Swine Flu.
He’s in IL.

His is the only confirmed case in families of friends or aquantances of ours.

[kalee]

OOPS...acquaintances

[Straight Vermonter]

141 people have died out of 27,000 who were sick enough to go to the hospital. That’s ~0.5% mortality rate.

Yawn.

[LucyT]

Three more NYC swine flu deaths raise toll to 15 - Newsday http://ow.ly/dx49

[dangerdoc]

Getting it now is probably a good thing. If it comes back as a virulent bug, those who had the mild form should have some immunity.

[azkathy]

Now acquired immunity is something that I have wondered about.
I am amazed at some posters who actually seem to expect the media to do a good job reporting on Swine flu. I would have thought by now that most people who post on Free Republic would have learned that the media does NOT allways do a good job.
I certainly don’t count on them to provide comprehensive reporting on this topic or others. If you check to see what they report on, they will take the press release and repeat it over and over. They don’t generally go out into the community and dig up any new information from people, like patients or doctors who have actually experienced the illness.

[dangerdoc]

“I am amazed at some posters who actually seem to expect the media to do a good job reporting”

LOL, I had to stop there and chuckle. Hehehe, there I go again.

Never let facts get in the way of a good story. I quit talking to the press about a decade ago, it saved us all a lot of aggravation.

[American in Israel]

It is not like we can do anything about it, run in circles and wear a face mask, the viruses are much smaller than a face mask filters anyway.

I guess we could bankrupt ourselves out to the 4th generation and pay for massive lobster and caviar parties at the WHO.