Posted on 06/11/2009 8:15:55 AM PDT by ScottinVA
Newly chosen Democratic gubernatorial nominee R. Creigh Deeds leads his Republican opponent, former Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, by six points in the first poll of Virginia voters released since Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey taken Wednesday night finds Deeds with 47% of the vote and McDonnell with 41%. Two percent (2%) favor of some other candidate and 10% are undecided.
Forty-two percent (42%) say Deeds, a state senator from Bath County, is also more likely to win in November, while 34% give the edge to McDonnell.
Deeds scored a come-from-behind win in Tuesday’s primary, turning what looked several weeks ago like a third-place finish into a rout over Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe and former state Delegate Brian J. Moran.
These figures on the general election represent a continuation of that comeback by Deeds. In April, Deeds made the weakest showing of the three Democratic candidates in match-ups against McDonnell, trailing him by 15 points, 45% to 30%. But now with one Democratic candidate only in the race, he has solidified support in his own party.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Virginia Democrats now favor Deeds over McDonnell while McDonnell has the support of 78% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McDonnell has a seven-point lead.
It is worth noting that, following Deeds’ victory, the number of undecided Democrats is significantly lower than the number of undecided Republicans and unaffiliated voters. It is too early to know if this reflects a temporary bounce following Deeds’ primary victory or if it signifies a more lasting change.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
“Some of this is the publicity that Deeds got as a result of his primary victory. It’ll dissipate, barring something unexpected.”
I sure hope it’s just a bounce.
!@#$!
PLUS, the pollsters always claim there are more dems than there really are, and fewer reps than there are, and way too many independents.
Exactly right.
Kilgore’s campaign was a Rest of Va vs NoVa. Bad idea when NoVa is the region with population growth. Back in 1997, Beyer wanted a NoVa vs Rest of Va. With that attitude, Gilmore smacked by double digits. We can’t continue to write off regions.
I am more confident of our chances in Jersey. The Jeresy election is a referendum on Corzine.
In Va, Kaine’s approvals are decent. It could be another nail bitter like the 2005 Attorney General race. Deeds is attempting to blame all the problems on Bush and calling McDonnell a tool of Bush.
Corzine is doing the same thing. The Dems are trying to milk Bush Fatigue for all its worth.
“PLUS, the pollsters always claim there are more dems than there really are, and fewer reps than there are, and way too many independents. “
Well, I thought that too in the last election, when polling showed 0bama consistently 4-8 pts ahead in the last three months. But, lo and behold, the final difference was 6%.
If Obama had been showing 4 to 8 percent lead all season and he ended up at 6 percent, what you are telling us is that Northern Virginia's population is totally oblivious to anything going on around them, or to the fact their 401(k) funds got cut in half, as did the value of their homes.
All the time?
Therefore it is fair to assume this is a temporary bump which will quickly blur and vanish in the coming weeks. All the buzz has been about Deeds lately.
Rasmussen Special Sauce, heavy on the Zogby.
How could it be otherwise? If you believe that He knows everything that is going to happen to you, before He even creates you, and if He truly has a plan for each of us, how could anything that happens, not be part of His plan?
I noticed the one congressional district that Deeds lost on Tuesday was Tidewater, McDonnell represented that area in the State legislature for years, and he’s still very popular there. It’s a huge area, with multitudes of active duty and retired military (McDonnell served as an officer in the Army). Dems need to perform very well in Tidewater in order to blunt Repubs traditional support in central, southern and rural areas of the Old Dominion, this could be McDonnell’s ace up his sleave. Fingers crossed.
I hope you’re right about Deeds being weak in the Tidewater area, because, as you stated, the RATs can’t win VA without doing well in Tidewater (especially without the huge black turnout from 2008, which will certainly not be replicated this year).
McDonnell should campaign relentlessly in Tidewater, and his supporters should try to sign up as many new voters in the region (and elsewhere of course) as possible in order to maximize this strength. I think Mills Godwin was the last Governor of Virginia from Tidewater (Suffolk I think), but that was back in the late 60’s and early 70’s when the population was only a fraction of what it is now. Deeds is from Bath County, his stronghold is in parts of less populated areas in central, western and northern Virginia.
I hope that strategy fails. These local races would have absolutely nothing to do with Bush even if he was still President.
Another poll showing a Deeds post primary bump.
An Anzalone Liszt Research (D) poll in Virginia finds Creigh Deeds (D) leading Bob McDonnell, 42% to 38%. The poll was conducted for the Democratic Governor’s Association.
Deeds has a 48% to 14% favorability rating while McDonnell has a 43% to 19% rating.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/16/deeds_edges_mcdonnell_in_new_poll.html
While I don’t doubt the post primary bounce, I don’t worry about this poll, considering who paid for it. They’ve already been dumping money into the state to trash McDonnell.
The Obama Depression is definitely going to make an impact in Virginia politics ~ even in Northern Virginia. Those federal jobs in DC are just not opening up for recent college grads around here Fur Shur.
The Left thinks that Deeds can peels off votes in Southside and sink McDonnell in NoVa and Tidewater by calling him the “Pat Roberston” candidate.
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