Posted on 06/11/2009 8:15:55 AM PDT by ScottinVA
Newly chosen Democratic gubernatorial nominee R. Creigh Deeds leads his Republican opponent, former Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, by six points in the first poll of Virginia voters released since Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey taken Wednesday night finds Deeds with 47% of the vote and McDonnell with 41%. Two percent (2%) favor of some other candidate and 10% are undecided.
Forty-two percent (42%) say Deeds, a state senator from Bath County, is also more likely to win in November, while 34% give the edge to McDonnell.
Deeds scored a come-from-behind win in Tuesday’s primary, turning what looked several weeks ago like a third-place finish into a rout over Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe and former state Delegate Brian J. Moran.
These figures on the general election represent a continuation of that comeback by Deeds. In April, Deeds made the weakest showing of the three Democratic candidates in match-ups against McDonnell, trailing him by 15 points, 45% to 30%. But now with one Democratic candidate only in the race, he has solidified support in his own party.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Virginia Democrats now favor Deeds over McDonnell while McDonnell has the support of 78% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McDonnell has a seven-point lead.
It is worth noting that, following Deeds’ victory, the number of undecided Democrats is significantly lower than the number of undecided Republicans and unaffiliated voters. It is too early to know if this reflects a temporary bounce following Deeds’ primary victory or if it signifies a more lasting change.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Then there are the third party types..
Well first FWIW, I was no advisor to either the Kilgore or Allen campaigns. Had they listened they might have done a few things differently. Would it have changed things? Maybe. Maybe not.
For example, had Kilgore railed against the Warner tax-increase instead of saying “Kaine loves Hitler” we might have had a different race. Likewise they pissed off the VCDL which didn’t lose the election, but didn’t help.
As for Allen, I’ve conceded often since then that there were two basic problems. 1) the campaign didn’t do enough opposition research so all we got was “Webb hates women” and “Webb writes porn” which looked pretty desperate. Plus Allen was targeted. Even in 2005 the word was he was the one Hillary was afraid of. But that lead to the second problem, which was 2) running for President and not for Senate. When “macaca” hit the fan, they were thrown offguard and never recovered. I have a couple of other theories that I won’t post here.
What I detest more than “out-of-staters” are freepers who come on these threads and preach the doom and gloom of how we’re going to lose when we’re out here trying to promote a candidate. We don’t need that kind of “help” from “our” side. And there’s plenty of it. I’m fighting the Democratic playbook off of FR. I shouldn’t have to fight it here. And they’re quite frequently the same arguments.
I don’t recall that I’ve ever said that McDonnell would win easily. I probably did comment that Bolling stepping aside would smooth the way, and it has. But I’ve also railed against the stupidity of ousting the party chair in a major election year. Although that seems to have worked out for the better.
Also FWIW, I’ve said often that Bob McDonnell is not Mark Earley OR Jerry Kilgore. He’s got a fire that neither of them had.
I think his career has shown otherwise.
1) Lower taxes
2) Fiscal restraint (attack Deeds’ push for an unaffordable transportation plan, a tax and spend scheme that flies in the face of fiscal restraint)
3) Avoiding over regulating business
4) Credible incentives to encourage small business growth, entrepreneurship and risk taking, all free market principles that seem to be disappearing in the current economic and political climate
5) Support for offshore oil drilling in VA waters which Deeds does not support
6) Last but not least, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs........
He should refrain from attacking Deeds personally, the same with other Washington dems. He should attack their tired old liberal tax and spend policies that are proven failures that will not grow the economy or create good paying jobs. All Virginians want better transportation, but this is not the time, our economy is in deep trouble, we simply cannot afford it without raising taxes, period. Honest straightforward talk, no Obama-like fluff about green this and green that and bringing our transportation systems into the 22 century, all the while never telling you that he will have to raise your taxes to pay for his plan. Utopia is a wonderful concept, but our priority should be directed at growing our economy and allowing a free market to create credible, long term good paying jobs.
That’s what we said in 2005. Truth is; the liberal influx in NoVA has permanently changed state-wide and national elections for Virginia.
The RPV had an email out to supporters within 3 hours of the polls closing Tuesday night referring to Deeds’s taxing positions, and another Wednesday morning about his website having NO reference to the economy or jobs, just the usual Dem priorities. They are not about to take any of this lying down.
I don’t so much mind out-of-staters opining on VA politics ... what I absolutely resent is the Dems/ACORN registering out-of-staters to vote here. In ‘08 they went to college campuses and registered students from states where their votes wouldn’t make a difference to tip the scales in VA. In ‘09, the only other state with a major election is NJ, so that leaves those lib students from other states free again to register/vote here. Theoretically, our registrations require actual residency, but that is, at best, observed in the breach.
True, but this time around both McDonnell (and Cuccinelli) have solid roots in NOVA, while Deeds does not. It will still be a major battle.
I saw that. And at the same time McDonnell release a very gracious congratulatory video on YouTube.
I think that signals that RPV will be the attack dog. And, in spite of the mess we went through to get him there, Pat Mullins is far more equipped for that job than Jeff Frederick would have been.
As, but you see, you dismiss my opinions by citing failed Illinois Republican campaigns, as if I was the one who came up with those strategies. It wasn't me telling the Illinois GOP "hey I got a brilliant plan to stop Obama, let's call up Alan Keyes in Maryland and import him our candidate!". It wasn't me telling the Illinois GOP "hey now that everyone hates the last Republican Governor, let's run a guy with the same last name and hope voters can tell the difference!" Perhaps if they had run the type of campaigns I wanted, things would have turned out a little differently.
I WAS involved in the successful Peter Roskam for U.S. Congress campaign back in '06, which if you look up online you will discover was one of the most, if not THE most, targeted congressional race for a "Dem pickup" in 2006 throughout the entire nation -- with Rahm Emanuel's handpicked "disable war hero" candidate getting EVERY resource possible from both the state and national party in an attempt to "take" retiring GOP icon's Henry Hyde's congressional seat to humiliate the GOP. And if you look up what happened, you will see the Dems had a huge tidal wave of votes that election and won a ton of seats to take back Congress -- but they DIDN'T win the one seat they wanted to take the most, because those of us at the Roskam camp eeked out a narrow victory with 1% higher votes than the Dem.
So give my track record, I really don't appreciate you dismissing Republican political activists from "other states" based on the idiots that run our state party.
>> As for Allen, I’ve conceded often since then that there were two basic problems. 1) the campaign didn’t do enough opposition research so all we got was “Webb hates women” and “Webb writes porn” which looked pretty desperate. Plus Allen was targeted. Even in 2005 the word was he was the one Hillary was afraid of. But that lead to the second problem, which was 2) running for President and not for Senate. When “macaca” hit the fan, they were thrown offguard and never recovered. I have a couple of other theories that I won’t post here. <<
Really? I know for a fact you kept angrily calling my posts "lies", and insisting that "no Virginia freepers" had EVER claimed Allen would win easily and were more concerned about his Presidential prospects than his Senate race -- until months later, when I copied and pasted half a dozen comments from Virginians during his campaign that proved my point. At the very least that means you wouldn't concede my point until you were forced to.
>> What I detest more than “out-of-staters” are freepers who come on these threads and preach the doom and gloom of how we’re going to lose when we’re out here trying to promote a candidate. We don’t need that kind of “help” from “our” side. And there’s plenty of it. I’m fighting the Democratic playbook off of FR. I shouldn’t have to fight it here. And they’re quite frequently the same arguments. <<
The "we're doomed" surrender element of FR is doing more harm than good, but I simply say the same is true of the "everything is rosy" crowd who telling everyone not to worry and the polls are "lying". There were a ton of freepers claiming this during the Allen campaign and all they did is hurt the very candidate they purported to help. Instead of doing damage control they let the Dem attacks fester and laughed them off.
>> I don’t recall that I’ve ever said that McDonnell would win easily. Also FWIW, I’ve said often that Bob McDonnell is not Mark Earley OR Jerry Kilgore. He’s got a fire that neither of them had. <<
I never said you did. I did say that many Virginia freepers claimed Kilgore and Allen would "win easily", and given their track record, I hope Bob McDonnell doesn't take advice from them on how to run his campaign. I will say that many Virginia freepers said Jerry Kilgore is no Mark Earley and was guaranteed to win because he had a fire in his belly that Earley lacked.
Fine. You win. I bow to your superior intellect.
None of this rehashing is going to elect Bob McDonnell. Or anybody else.
The whole chairman brouhaha was lost on 99.9% of VA voters (myself included, frankly). Don’t really see that affecting the general election.
I was on the Fairfax County committee when Pat was chairman ... he is incredible. He just never quits and always keeps his eye on the ‘big picture.’ He’s shrewd as can be and projects a southern gentleman with an Ivy League diploma. I wouldn’t mess with him for one minute.
You’re probably right. I do think it soured some folks who might poll as Republican. But in the long run, it’s been a good thing.
And yes, Mullins is very sharp.
Barf.
McDonnell is on TV showing that he has a cute family, and wants to spur business growth.
I think McDonnell should put most of his campaign energy into telling us how great a governor he's going to be. Tell us why we should vote for him. The fact that he isn't a 'Rat (and that the 'Rat is a rat) isn't enough.
Exactly. That was Kilgore's biggest mistake.
Well, that and Hitler.
Some of this is the publicity that Deeds got as a result of his primary victory. It’ll dissipate, barring something unexpected.
Deeds is not a “Blue Dog” conservative Democrat.
He polls well downstate because he is from downstate.
Any democrat will hold democratic voters these days, they have great brand loyalty.
However, I think polling overstates that brand loyalty given the last few months of Obama.
You would be entirely wrong about that as well.
I agree.
The polls were accurate in forecasting a big primary victory.
You are aware that 1 out of every 7 Virginia residents live in Fairfax County? If you add the rest of Northern Virginia's population, then 2 out of every 7 Virginia residents live in Northern Virginia. That is about 28% of the state's population.
In addition, the turnout percentage in Alexandria and Arlington are very high in general elections, so polls should heavily weigh Northern Virginia.
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