Posted on 03/07/2009 9:52:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
With stocks mired in multi-year lows and the fate of General Motors and banks hanging in the balance, investors are unlikely to curb their flight from risk next week, putting Wall Street on track for another brutal sell-off.
One focal point will be a meeting between the US auto task force and GM, Chrysler and officials from the United Auto Workers in Detroit next week after auditors raised doubts about GM’s ability to survive outside bankruptcy.
Uncertainty over the plan to salvage banks will also hang over the struggling sector until more concrete details from Washington are revealed, leaving investors to fret that companies that were once pillars of the financial system will have to be nationalised.
The weak economy will likely be confirmed by a handful of economic reports, including a government report on February retail sales and a survey of consumer sentiment.
“There are, unfortunately, no guideposts to a lot of the market to allow investors to get a better sense of direction of where the market is going, where corporate America is going,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
“Short of that, we’re going to likely have to rely on Washington. Unfortunately, it just seems like Washington’s relationship with the stock market is strained.”
“PAINFUL” MARKET
With the Dow and S&P trading at 12-year lows, and the Nasdaq sliding to 6-year lows, market watchers will be looking for signs of whether a bottom has been found, or if indexes still have another leg down to go.
This week was the fourth week of declines for all three major US stock indexes, as the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 6.2 percent and the Nasdaq composite index fell 6.1 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 slid 7 percent, its worst week since November.
(Excerpt) Read more at thepeninsulaqatar.com ...
Why is there millions of spending to elect politicians, if there's no payback? Corruption has rotted the American political soul.
“I’d be tempted to say there’s negative incentive to invest.”
A LOT of people have some very well deserved, very hard, and well-earned life lessons coming....
I’ve got libs on FINANCIAL INVESTMENT BOARD telling me HOW GREAT things were under Carter, and how REAGAN screwed everything up!!
AND THESE ARE SUPPOSEDLY INVESTORS!!!
we are lucky....some folks are getting laid off.
layoffs seem to be concentrated in certain areas (Michigan) or sectors....homes.
I expect many illegals to go home. I can already see less hispanics thn the usual 250,000 or so in Nashville.
my main business is a small chain of decent car washes....rollovers, self serve, vacs, tunnel etc....they are ok, the weather is our main enemy and in the SE it’s been a gloomy 2 winters now...like Dublin.
i’m also in self storage and it has slowed markedly but I’m still hoveringh at 85% or so which is profitable
apartments are up....more renters..
office warehouse space is flat...
raw land...dead as you might imagine
that about sums up what I do for a living
best thing for us is the market stagnates at a reasonable bottom till next year...
I just posted that on the fridge. The kids gathered around and yelled to one another to come see, “Mom just posted a cartoon on the fridge!”.
I’m afraid you’re correct.
Between racial politics, illegals, vote fraud, and wealth redistribution I fear Baraq is the Chavez of the USA.
I speculated that a terrorist attack might be enough to have him voted out, but somebody on FR mentioned that might be his trigger for martial law.
OK I’m delusional.
PEs are 11 btw, not 16
lowest PEs on record are 1929, 1932 and 1982.....@5 PE
LOL...I’m trying to do like Rush...”have the recession without me”
Shite man I don’t know....do any of us?
But when I see a car wash (one of my businesses) that I can buy for 3 times gross and maybe the land is worth 70% of the cost and I can borrow 50-60% for a variable 4-6% 5 year fixed on a 20 year AM then I gotta take a hard look.
I have banks call me weekly about deals in my area of interest...some they have already written down and want me to cross collateralize and just assume.
If one fits then it can work. I bought an estate wash 3 weeks ago in Hermitage/Nashville. I am auctioning my mother’s home in April (unless the sky really does fall) and I am gonna “do a Jefferson” house wise to somewhere.
Same with these houses....I kid you not. A local bank here in Nashville has a 10,700 sq ft home in Brentwood...one of the eastern US’s best zip codes...the developer has folded on about 80 spec homes and bank America has it along with my local bank.
3 floors, elevator....nice moldings ..not badly done..maybe a 7.5 home construction wise
they left the home with no floors, no kitchen cabinets, and no light fixtures...we figured 200K max to finish her out.
bank claims they have 1.2M paper on the home ...which tells me the developer padded his draws but anyhow....they offered the debt for 60 cents on the dollar...that was their offer. 720K
They might take 600K even, then put 200K in it and you have a nearly 11,000 sq ft home in a great area for 900K, same house two years ago would have had a 2M asking price...at least
I live closr in town in an old 3500 sq ft home in a park like envornment, our prices are more insulated and have not fallen as sharply..area has been built out since the 60s
anyhow, my wife nixed it...thought it too ostentatious, that we would feel ike the Beverly Hillbillies plus there was no pool and all those quibbles
i cannot imagine who really needs that much room but that’s their business
but the thought of getting into a home that size for that price and selling after the turnaround which will come was appealing at least to study..
we’re now looking further out for something 60-70% that size with more land
dw/dc/fyi
by the time we realize the folks holding cash are going back in ...they already will have...
i pinged you to another thread on what the real estate market is like here right now
it’s an odd time....I can’t say I’ve ever witnessed the soup we’re in now
like Carter but oil is cheap
but Obama is more a socialist than Carter
And, as George Will likes to say, "History repeats itself right up until the time it doesn't". I think conventional valuation calculations are reaching the point of irrelevance. Things are going to get much worse.
CASH IS KING!
What's going to be "king" when inflation starts?
Geithner, like the dude in Repo Man, wants to have his Sushi and not pay for it.
Financial sector is dead, especially on the retail side. Real estate hasn't crashed in the New York area (even in Queens where I now live, with my current nabe a haven for Manhattanities looking for relatively cheaper rents for the last two years or so), although it has plateaued. Amazing, considering the mass layoffs at the wirehouses (NY's bread and butter, which pays for the massive government and healthcare bureacracy), and the decline in inflows from the Euros, Arabs, and Chinese.
Illegals seem to be going back to Ecuador, Mexico, and Guatemala in both New York and New Jersey. Chinese vulture investors active buying up businesses and property in the outer boroughs.
In short, nobody is hiring, the financial sector has downsized, but we are not in the tailspin that Michigan, Ohio are in, nor are we seeing the real estate crash that has beset Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. Of course, if you've spent time in those three states, you know that they live and die by the boom and bust cycle in real estate. FL and NV still have the problem of attracting employers outside of the tourism/low level service sector for various reasons.
My sister tells me that things in TN are relatively stable, largely because they didn't have the huge run-up in real estate that we did, plus she has a military base right next door that provides a stable source of employment.
I didn't say "US Cash is King" ;-)
“Please don’t assume everyone is like you.”
As you are leaving you will likely hear a fierce battle taking place at your six.
That’s where I’ll be.
I agree, completely.
Most don’t yet believe anything serious is happening, believe it, or not.
Their biggest concern is WHEN will stock market will bounce back. In normal times this is exactly the position I would take—these times aren’t normal.
Won’t they be surprised.
Welcome to Free Republic, comrade!
В рот волка.
Good take from Astoria or Rego Park
There was an awful jobs report on Friday, but the Dow closed up a bit anyway. Next week might well bring an over-sold rally.
For my next trick...
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