“But I have a VERY close source working inside the PA Republican Party and just talked to this person a few minutes ago...McCain is winning BIG in Western and Central PA. It seems coal country is pissed at 0’s comments over the weekend...”
........the big news would be if he WASN’T winning big in the “T”..
There are a few areas outside the “T” that are included.
To quote Ronald Reagan...
"Trust (I hope you are right) but verify (I'll believe it when I see it)"
The implication in the tip being that Mac is winning ALL of Western PA, not just the top of the T. That makes a big difference. The T doesn't work with just Philadelphia and not Pittsburgh.
McCain is going to win big in the T. But if he is also winning in Southwestern PA, he’s going to win PA. If he even breaks even in Southwestern PA, he still has a very good chance of winning PA.
Let me put this in context. In 2004, Kerry defeated Bush in PA by 51-49. He won the SW part of PA (Pittsburgh and surrounding areas) by 7 points, representing 23% of the votes of the entire state (1.61% of the entire statewide vote). The other key area is Northeastern PA (Scranton area). Kerry won that area by only 51-49, and that part of the state represents 14% of the total vote.
These are both areas where Obama performed very badly in the Democratic primaries. It isn’t at all clear to me that he will be able to perform as well as Kerry did.
Finally, there are swing counties in SE PA (Philly suburbs) that may hold the final key to PA. Obama should win these counties, but if McCain can hold down his margin of victory he may win the state. McCain actually had one of his last events over the weekend in Delaware County, which is one of these key counties.