IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Final Estimate. Obama: 51.5%, McCain 44.3%, Other 4.2%

Investors Business Daily ^ | 2008-11-03 | IBD/TIPP

[justlurking]

With just hours to go before the polls open Tuesday, the latest and final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a 7.2-point lead over Sen. John McCain (51.5% Obama vs. 44.3% McCain). All other candidates garner a combined 4.2%. This tally represents IBD/TIPP’s final estimate after allocating undecided voters.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Looks like TIPP will lose its vaunted status as “the world’s most by-George you-betcha accurate polling house”.

[Perdogg]

this is total crap. How can you just assign undecideds?

[MBB1984]

We can at least have an expectation of a new and more conservative GOP. The RINO drift surely can be blamed for part of the GOP’s problems.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

I just don’t see undecideds breaking for Obama that way.

I don't either, especially as the early voting exit poll data from FL and NV suggests exactly the opposite - a heavy independent/undecided break for McCain.

[RetiredArmy]

Sorry, Obama is not going to win the south. Those numbers don't compute. Note the others and none on religion goes to the scum O-scum-a. Jews vote for A-hab the A-rab. None investors for O-scum-a.

[LS]

1) "Assigns" Is. that's the difference there.

2) McCain wins Catholics AND Protestants but loses?

Check out today's Muehlenberg PA poll (Obama +4, about a 4 MOE): question, "Do you know anyone who wouldn't vote for Obama because he is black?"

14% There's your "Bradley Effect."

[ConstantConservative]

You may be right, but I hop II Chronicles and Joel 2 has resounded enough in enough peoples head’s to get us thinking and doing the things God wants us to do. We may have been too blessed. You can see a pattern of God blessing a nation, those people forgetting about him, then he turns a deaf ear. A very scary scenario indeed. Lord, forgive and save us.

2 Chronicles 7:14 (New International Version)
New International Version (NIV)

14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then will I hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and will heal their land.

[WalterSkinner]

..a poll, a poll, my kingdom for an honest poll...

[floridagopvoter]

“skeptical about Barr and Nader winning 4.1%. Try about 0.4% each.”

I seriously doubt they were giving 4.1% to Nader/Barr. The “other” is a combination of 3rd party voters and also people who are simply not going to make a choice either way and thus won’t show up to vote.

[floridagopvoter]

“Exactly correct.
This was about appearances, not reality.
Hoping to depress our base, but it didn’t work and we will win this.”

The Investors Business Daily has a heavy tilt to the right. They have no reason to be part of a conspiracy to depress the base.

[bailmeout]

Well, it looks like TIPP went with the crowd on this one. Better to go down with everyone else than stand out as an outlier. That way, they can claim that some unforeseen event (i.e. higher than expected GOP turnout) threw off all of the polls.

[ilgipper]

WTH, they have the ‘inevitable’ candidate peak out at 47.5% and then assume the undecideds break hard for that guy after refusing to commit to him for this long? Wow, they really screwed this up bad. Assume the undecideds break according to normal voting patterns. We can assume there is zero or near zero undecided blacks. Therefore, the breakdown should be even or slightly to McCain.

[ConstantConservative]

I wouldn’t mind Duncan Hunter at all. Why are you so confident?

I know the fence he built in San Diego cut crime by something like 90%, but it’s too bad illegal immigration isn’t a hot item anymore.

[kevkrom]

They’re nuts. No way do to undecideds break 2:1 for Obama — at best (for Obama) they break 2:1 for McCain.

[fortheDeclaration]

The Investors Business Daily has a heavy tilt to the right. They have no reason to be part of a conspiracy to depress the base.

And where are their poll numbers and internals?

[fortheDeclaration]

I wouldn’t mind Duncan Hunter at all. Why are you so confident? I know the fence he built in San Diego cut crime by something like 90%, but it’s too bad illegal immigration isn’t a hot item anymore.

Hunter is a good man, but he would not have done well in the run for the Presidency.

Now is not the time to bring up Hunter, now is the time to concentrate on getting McCain elected.

[Hero]

My husband - Jewish - isn’t voting Obama. Neither is his daughter who is a stauch democrat. Neither is his son in law who is also a stauch democrat. What does that tell you?

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>We know 0 is going win the popular vote by 2 to 3% of the vote. But will lose to Mac in Electoral College.<<

The only time anyone has ever been elected POTUS when losing the popular vote by 1% or more was in 1876. Tilden (D) won the votes in Louisiana, Florida, but this was during Reconstruction, and Hayes’s (R) people in the state governments awarded those electoral votes to Hayes, and Hayes eventually was declared the winner.

The other times the popular vote loser won the electoral vote (1888 and 2000) the popular vote margin was less than 1%.

[Genoa]

Polls, schmolls! Remember 1980. VOTE!!

[mad_as_he$$]

lol