11.04.08: Latest…………….
10.30.08: Don't Let the Polls Affect Your Vote
FlAttorney's FR "Straight Talk": 2008 Presidential Election Updated 24/7
TAB
Now they are releasing their daily tracking trend going back to 9/26.
By graphing the trend lines I project a raw 51% Obama, 47% McCain. The last seven days, Obama has not picked up any undecideds, so giving the last 1% to McCain is justified to give a final polling breakdown of 51% Obama vs. 48% McCain.
Those polled don't often tell the truth, especially in the case of Democrat, women, Hillary voters. Several polls show 25%+ breaking for McCain. If even 10% do so, that's a 1% Democrat crossover vote for McCain, making the result 50% Obama, 49% McCain.
The poll also shows Obama getting 16% of the Republican vote, not likely.
Look at Question #12:
"Do you know anyone who does not support Obama because he is black?"
YES.....14%
That percentage only favors McCain. With a 50% turnout and PA is 91% White, that's a "Bradley Effect" of 6%. If we consider only half that crossover, we get a 52% McCain, 47% Obama.
A solid win for McCain.
Dems have a 10 point turnout advantage in this poll and Obama is up only six points? If this is right, he has a problem.
The Republican number is real. The Rinos in the philly suburbs got whaled on by the market.
My hope is in the selection problems in the polling. The party ID is 51/41/6 D/R/I, a +10 spread. I do not believe the spread will be that great and we are simply having oversampling of Dems.
It will be close though. Does anyone have party ID info from ‘04 and ‘06?
All P.U.M.A website has told their people to tell pollsters they were voting for OBAMA!
BTW, I took a quick look at the VA polls and they are better for McCain by a couple of points, he should win there too.
I did the math. If Mac takes PA, OH, NC, FL, MO and NV but loses VA, CO, NM and NH... He wins 273-265. I am confident that he will take NC, FL, OH MO and NV. I even think he will take VA. But not real sure. Anyway if he gets PA its over for Bambi. Come on PENN. You can do it!!! Put down your guns and bibles and get out and vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They don't know whether the call is coming from the union and many aren't going to want to vote for Obama's "carding" act.
People need to read this:
http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/
and then concentrate on GOTV.
If we do, Wednesday will be a great morning.
Winning PA makes a huge difference in the math...
That means Obama would need to flip enough red states to get 39 electoral votes. If Mac also takes OH, MO, and Florida off the table, then that puts Obama in a very difficult position where he would have to sweep the battlegrounds that are left.
Let's hope America sleeps well and wakes up from the Obamanable Snowjob.
The interesting poin is that for it to be 52% O to 46% M with Dems 51% and Repubs 41% that means McCain is picking up 5 out of 6 independents. That has to imply higher Dem crossovers than Repub crossovers.
Interesting. McCain has gained a lot of ground.
I have said all along it’s going to be which way hillary votes go if puma is really mad at Obama Mccain will win if they are pulling a fast one Mccain will lose, I really believe hillary wants a shot in 2012 I believe shes working behind the seens for Mccain.!!! I also believe the polls have not picked up on this.
bookmark
McCain is taking PA, and hes going to take it by a larger margin than Kerry did or Gore did, I have absolutely no doubt.
Steelers were the underdogs last night too, and they came through. Go McCain/Palin.
Below 48 for Obama is death.
I believe that the Bradley Effect is in play with EVERY poll that we are seeing these days. McCain will win PA, and OH and VA, for that matter.
11.04.08: Latest…………….
TAB
I don’t know where to post this info . My husband just called to see if I was up yet. He said the GOP called from the place where we are supposed to go and the lines are two to three hundred deep so expect to wait in line. Middle Paxton right outside of Harrisburg. Pa. I’m driving over to get in line! I’ve never ever in had to stand in line be it here or my old township of West Hanover more then 5 minutes.