The interesting poin is that for it to be 52% O to 46% M with Dems 51% and Repubs 41% that means McCain is picking up 5 out of 6 independents. That has to imply higher Dem crossovers than Repub crossovers.
In PA, the crossover D to R will be huge, bank on it. PUMA projections alone are around 30% of those who voted for Hillary in the primaries ( about 350k votes) That doesn’t even take into account the “Reagan” and soft dems who will not vote for Fauxbama.
Fauxbama’s campaign has been a disaster in the rust belt, it won’t play in PA, and he’s going to lose at least one more rust belt state if not more because of it.
My theory is that Obama's draw was largely emotional and undecideds largely aren't available for that draw. They are undecided because they are more careful and critical, less easily swayed by hype.
That is why the big Obama push for early voting, not to lock in the faithful, chanting masses, but to keep the leaners from becoming undecided.
Another thing, McCain's gains never came from the undecideds until the last week when they had to make up their minds. He always drew from Obama defectors along the way.