With oversampling by Scott Raz, McCain and Obama are in a dead heat. At this point, national polls mean nothing. Zero could quite well win the popular vote, but lose the election a la Kerry. Look for tons of disputes, lawsuits, cries of disenfranchisement in the coming days. This election won’t be over until next week, I fear.
I still don’t like his having over 50 percent. That used to be the indicator of winning or not. I guess this year could have changed that, but that was ALWAYS the hint in every other year. Your oversampling is a good excuse to make me happy...hopfully it will be true.
I wish they would be called on the carpet for how many dems vs how many republicans they poll.
I don’t wanna buy it, in fact, I’d like to toss it in the trash after I stepped on it a million times.
Everybody must keep track of the final polls so that we can all have a good laugh on Tuesday night when the polsters are stuttering and stammering without a good reason for being so wrong!!!
The one interesting nugget in this story is that even with nearly 7% Dem oversampling Obama has a solid lead in states that only comprise 260 EVs.
The rest of the states are either leaning towards Obama, leaning towards McCain or tossups.
This is significant because if the final turnout is truly like 2004 or even 2006 then McCain sweeps those leaning states and the toss up states
It’s them wascally PUMA’s, lying to the pollsters!
Heh!
At least that’s what I keep telling myself. Heck, I’d lie to them, too!
State by state polls matter. Mac has narrowed the gap and is leading in key states. The national polls with huge RAT overweighting are for propaganda purposes only...
Show up to vote and bring those that can’t get to the polls with you...GOTV
On the air yesterday, Rasmussen said that if you take out the leaners then there are 8% undecided.
In other headlines....
Rassmussen Enters the Oganic Fertilizer Market...
Besides oversampling Democrats, don’t forget Rasmussen also includes “leaners.” These are undecided voters.
It would seem unlikely so many different polls would come to similar conclusions and it not really be leaning that way.
If Obama does win easily and there are Democratic gains in both houses we are going to have to face the fact that America is not the place we thought we knew.
The choices are stark and in truth there's little excuse not to know enough truthful details to make an informed choice regardless of the MSM.
Day of judgment is nearly upon us - one way or the other.
I hope all these posts are archived somewhere. Because I believe the polls are beyond wrong, they are criminal in the way they mislead. After all is said and done tomorrow, we need to throw these oversampled, skewed results back in their faces and shred any legitimacy these bogus polling firms have in the future.
And on the outside chance Obama is elected, he will get the same treatment from me as the liberals gave George W. Bush. It will be the hardest, worst four years of his political life.
Assmussen may be the most credible “poll” out there this cycle in the sense that he openly publishes his weighting gap. So if you start with his current 6.5% advantage to the Democrats then here is my personal prediction for whatever it is worth:
1. I think it is reasonable to assume that you could take 3 points off that weighting, which effectively means 3 points to McCain.
2. So the race would then be at 3 points, which means that any surprising higher turnout on our side, late deciders for McCain etc. in the right states could give us a win.
3. Having said that I feel that the election will likely fall somewhere between a 51% - 48% Obama vote and a 51% - 48% McCain vote, with the odds of it being closer to the Obama side of things probably at 75%.
So in short it will be a comeback to win, but none of us should let “polls” keep us from proudly voting to keep that Marxist Obama out of office. Even if McCain doesn’t pull it out then we can be sure that we made the right decision and tell others of that for the next 4 years.
The black vote is going to come out in droves, like never before, giving the popular vote to Obama.
However, they are mostly concentrated in blue states (i.e. NYC, Detroit, Chicago, LA, Oakland) which do Obama no good.
McCain wins the electoral college vote.
McCain/Palin will win in a clear landslide, and they will take office in January 2009.
Riots may occur in some big cities. We can recover from those and move forward. The media, the pollsters, and the RINOs who betrayed their people and their country will have been exposed for the unscrupulous turncoats they are.
I trust the Poles, look how they stood up to the former USSR.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I just got this from FR 2004:
NOV 1, 2004 Polling data Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231
11/01/2008 4:11:27 PM PDT · by tallyhoe · 62 replies · 1,223+ views
Electorial Vote ^ | Nov. 1, 2004 | Electorial Vote
There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in. Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now...