Assmussen may be the most credible “poll” out there this cycle in the sense that he openly publishes his weighting gap. So if you start with his current 6.5% advantage to the Democrats then here is my personal prediction for whatever it is worth:
1. I think it is reasonable to assume that you could take 3 points off that weighting, which effectively means 3 points to McCain.
2. So the race would then be at 3 points, which means that any surprising higher turnout on our side, late deciders for McCain etc. in the right states could give us a win.
3. Having said that I feel that the election will likely fall somewhere between a 51% - 48% Obama vote and a 51% - 48% McCain vote, with the odds of it being closer to the Obama side of things probably at 75%.
So in short it will be a comeback to win, but none of us should let “polls” keep us from proudly voting to keep that Marxist Obama out of office. Even if McCain doesn’t pull it out then we can be sure that we made the right decision and tell others of that for the next 4 years.
I do not disagree with your analysis. That is why I have consistently predicted a 52% PV for McCain.
I base this on three factors:
1. Oversampling of Democrats
2. PUMA (short hand for cross voting Democrats)
3. Spiral of Silence (I will publish a white paper on this soon. This is what happened in the UK in 1992 where people did not want to talk about voting for a party that was “uncool” ). There is ample evidence of this.
Today’s state polls are not very encouraging. McCain MUST win PA or it’s over.
My predictions for the Popular Vote:
McCuda: 50.0%
Osama bin Biden: 48.9%
All others: 1.1%
My predictions for the Electoral Vote:
McCuda: 287
Osama bin Biden: 249
EV prediction includes 1 EV from ME, plus PA for McCuda. Osama bin Biden includes CO, NM, MN, NH and IA.
Winning PA makes all good...fingers are crossed!