They took this poll 31st, 1st, 2nd..friday and whole weekend..they do not weight by party thus only 29 percent republican...and 39% democrat..please..more like 38 or 39 democrat and 34-36 republican...
Ole George Gallup is spinning in his grave.
11%? lol.. ok.. thats a wider point spread then Reagan in 1980.. there is no way.
Wow...Gallup is predicting an even bigger Obama blowout than the New York Times. That says a lot...
Talk about being an outlier. Christ, Gallup is going way out on a limb here.
Gallup is about to be very very wrong.
Hopefully there will be a purge and a resurrection of the brand.
Here’s why I think these polls are so inflated. The press is telling America that this thing is in the bag for BHO. Then, when he loses on Tuesday, and mayhem ensues (not just for days, but for weeks and months), it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Who else will be there to cover the riots and grab the ratings?
Pump it up big so that when it falls, the networks are there to show us all the horrific pictures.
If this causes BO voters to stay home because they think it’s in the bag then I say FINE - good job, pollsters.
Otherwise, get lost.
In order to help calm Freepers, I’ll post this again...
Gallup finally mentioned their party affiliation numbers in the article associated with their final poll. Here are those numbers:
Democrat - 39%
Independent - 31%
Republican - 29%
Here are the numbers from exit polling in the 2004 election:
Democrat - 37%
Republican - 37%
Independent - 26%
Here are the numbers from exit polling in the 2006 election:
Democrat - 38%
Republican - 36%
Independent - 26%
Do they really believe that the gap has gone from 0 in 2004 to +2 for the Democrats in 2006 to +10 for the Democrats in 2008?
-Bob
To Whom It May Concern,
You have been wrong 99.999% of the time in my poll. See I'm a better pollster then you!
Please send an app for employment to:
We are going to win this!!!
Again, it doesn’t matter what percentag Comrade Zero gets if McCain gets 1 more vote than him in each state needed to total 270 electoral votes. Oh how I would enjoy watching the US Constitution shaft him with the Electoral College like he wants to shaft the US Constitution.
how can they poll cell phones?
i don’t get polled at home...unlisted
this poll has to be off
it’s too far off from most of the respectable polls
some polls in 1948 had Truman down 15 points final poll
wonder how the polling technology has changed?
that is nuts....Reagan only won by 8 in 1984
that is almost 10 times the margin Bush beat Kerry
the demography has not changed that much..some by not like that
Gallup can go gallup their kool-aid asses right on outta here.
Gallup has swallowed the Koolaid and is now asking for seconds and thirds. It is assuming a 64% turnout (not seen in any election going back at least as far as 1960) and lots of blacks coming out of nowhere to vote for Obama.
As I read their write-up, they further assume that turnout on election day will be 39D (with 90% party support), 31I, and only 26R. Yes, I typed that right. Oh, and Obama wins the Independents 48-43.
By the way, this is totally contrary to what Gallup has been saying in its weekly internals that I used to trust so much. Those party IDs were bad enough, but at least they measured registered voters and I was free to accept or reject them. Incidentally, the party ID for the last breakdown by party ID was
Dems 41.3 (4.3 oversample from 2004)
GOP 32.2 (4.8 undersample from 2004)
Ind 26.5 (0.5 oversample from 2004)
Anyhow, I really don’t have any response to all this other than to dismiss it and wonder of Gallup is on the take. Seriously.
The original 60% turnout model was predicated on a flood of new young voters and minorities (mostly blacks) who were going to vote overwhelmingly for Obama. Gallup has since admitted a few days ago that the yoots are NOT going to vote in significantly higher numbers than four years ago. Fine. I could have told them that months ago. But then why are they increasing their turnout model another 5%??
Answer: black voters, who supposedly are going to vote in so many numbers that they make up for all those yoots who would rather spend this Tuesday at the mall or whatever than voting for Obama. Gallup projects black turnout at 11 percent of the electorate. Well, guess what. Black turnout was at 11 percent in 2004! It’s true, check it out. Kerry won by big margins in big blue states with lots of black people. Now Obama might win by the same or even bigger margins in these same states. Or maybe not.
But it gets better. Gallup now projects that Obama will get 97%(!) black support from likely voters. That’s right: 97% of likely voters. [Insert “that’s racist!” here....but I digress.] And I’m now calling BS on this — I studied those Gallup internals every week and for weeks Obama polled consistently between 89% and 91% for blacks among REGISTERED voters (who are likely to be more Democratic than likely voters). Here, see for yourself:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx
Which brings me to the hispanic vote. Gallup doesn’t make any claim that Hispanics will also turn out in record numbers from nowhere to vote for Obama. But it does claim in its final writeup that Obama is winning 73% of Hispanics. Again, I’m calling BS. Look at the link above. Obama scored consistently between 60-65% among Hispanics who were REGISTERED voters, not slightly more Republican likely voters.
The one good thing to take out of this load of horse manure is Gallup’s statement that McCain leads among white voters 51-44 — even with that totally nutty D39, 26R, 31I split. It is possible, even likely, that with a reality based split, McCain is much closer to Bush’s 58-41 performance of four years ago.
Also, I find it strangely encouraging that in a poll that oversamples Democrats relative to Republicans by a whopping 13 points, Obama still has only a 11 point lead, and even that only after Gallup allocated the remaining undecideds evenly.
Gallup final estimate: O 55 - M 44
So if Gallup is as good as they were in the New Hampshire primary, Obama will lose by 5.
Or if they’re as good as they were in the California primary, he’ll lose by 10.